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What's in Store for Chesapeake (CHK) This Earnings Season?

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Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2018 results on May 2, before the opening bell.

For the fourth-quarter 2017, the company, having prime focus on oil and gas exploration and production activities, reported a positive earnings surprise of 20.00%. Chesapeake beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the previous four quarters, the average positive earnings surprise being 22.4%. 

Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to the announcement.

Which Way Are Estimates Trending?

Let’s look at the estimate revision trend to get a clear picture of what analysts are expecting from the company’s earnings release.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings of 25 cents has remained stagnant over the last 30 days, with three firms being bullish and four firms adopting a bearish stance. The figure reflects year-over-year growth of 8.7%.

Further, analysts polled by Zacks expect revenues of $1.3 billion, showing a decline of 11.7% from the year-ago quarter.

 

 

Factors Likely to Affect Results

Per the Zacks Consensus Estimate, Chesapeake’s production for the current quarter is pegged at 50 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe), lower than 55 MMBoe in the preceding quarter, but higher than 48 MMBoe in the year-earlier quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for oil production is 8.4 million barrels (MMbbls), showing an improvement from 8 MMbbls in the year-ago quarter but down from 9 MMbbls in the prior quarter.

Analysts polled by Zacks expect natural gas production of 220 billion cubic feet (bcf), which shows an increase from 211 bcf in the year-ago quarter but down from 239 bcf in the October-to-December quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average realized price of oil (including realized gains on derivatives) is $55 per barrel, lower than $56.47 in the prior quarter but higher than $51.72 a year ago.

Analysts polled by Zacks expect average realized natural gas price to rise almost 15% and 5% from the preceding quarter and the year-ago quarter to $3.17 per thousand cubic feet (mcf).

The upside in the commodity prices and oil equivalent production – both as compared to the year-ago quarter — will benefit upstream players like Chesapeake.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not show a beat for Chesapeake this earnings season. That is because a stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is -5.16%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate is 24 cents, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 25 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.      

Zacks Rank: Chesapeake carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Conversely, Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 and 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model. These have the right combination of elements to beat earnings this quarter.

Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure, Inc. (SOI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.28% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.33% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Continental Resources, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +3.10% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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