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PBF Energy's Q3 Earnings on Deck: Should You Bet on the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
PBF is set to report Q3 earnings on Oct. 29, with EPS estimated at $11.12 and revenues at $10.34 billion.
Higher oil prices may pressure PBF's refining margins, but strong utilization could offset costs.
PBF trades at a low valuation of 5.15x EV/EBITDA, while California's gasoline shortage could boost profits.
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 29, before the opening bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is pegged at $11.12 per share, implying a massive improvement from the year-ago reported number. It has witnessed no estimate revisions in the past seven days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $10.34 billion, suggesting a surge of 35.1% from the year-ago actuals.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PBF beat the consensus estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 123.4%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Q3 Earnings Whispers for PBF
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for PBF this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
PBF’s Factors to Note
To understand how oil prices behaved in the September quarter, let's analyze the commodity prices from the data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”). The average Cushing, OK, WTI spot prices for July, August and September of this year were $80.46 per barrel, $83.90 per barrel and $97.31 per barrel, respectively, per EIA data. Commodity prices were $68.39 per barrel, $64.86 per barrel and $63.96 per barrel in the prior-year respective quarters, according to the EIA.
A constructive oil-price backdrop, driven by the Iran war, is likely to have hurt the refining business of PBF Energy in the third quarter, since the input costs to produce final products were higher. A similar dynamic is likely to have affected Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR - Free Report) and Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) , belonging to the same space.
However, the high utilization of refineries in the United States to meet resilient demand is likely to have largely offset the negative impacts of high input costs.
PBF’s Price Performance & Valuation
PBF's stock has surged 127.8% over the past year, underperforming the industry’s 128.7% growth. PARR has jumped 88.8% over the same time frame, while VLO has gained 140.5%.
One-Year Price Chart
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
With PBF’s stock price underperforming the industry, the company appears relatively undervalued. The company's current trailing 12-month enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) is 5.15x, reflecting that it is trading at a discount compared with the industry average of 6.38x. VLO and PARR are valued at 5.63x and 3.26x, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis of PBF
PBF Energy is among the leading refiners in the United States. High refinery utilization amid resilient U.S. demand is expected to continue offsetting the negative impacts of elevated input costs, driven by high oil prices. This should boost PBF’s bottom line. The company’s business environment will likely remain lucrative, given that management expects the normalization of refined-product inventories to extend into 2027.
The mid-cap refiner’s prospects remain bright, as the company said on the second-quarter 2026 earnings call that California has had a persistent gasoline supply deficit. This is because roughly one-third of the state's gasoline requirements are met through imports, per data from the company’s transcript. Thus, PBF's established refining presence at Torrance and Martinez positions it to benefit from these market conditions, potentially supporting stronger margins and profitability.
Last Word
Given the favorable business landscape, it might be the ideal time for investors to bet on the undervalued energy stock.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
PBF Energy's Q3 Earnings on Deck: Should You Bet on the Stock?
Key Takeaways
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 29, before the opening bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is pegged at $11.12 per share, implying a massive improvement from the year-ago reported number. It has witnessed no estimate revisions in the past seven days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $10.34 billion, suggesting a surge of 35.1% from the year-ago actuals.
PBF beat the consensus estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 123.4%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Q3 Earnings Whispers for PBF
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for PBF this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is the case here.
The leading refining player has an Earnings ESP of +0.34%. PBF currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
PBF’s Factors to Note
To understand how oil prices behaved in the September quarter, let's analyze the commodity prices from the data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”). The average Cushing, OK, WTI spot prices for July, August and September of this year were $80.46 per barrel, $83.90 per barrel and $97.31 per barrel, respectively, per EIA data. Commodity prices were $68.39 per barrel, $64.86 per barrel and $63.96 per barrel in the prior-year respective quarters, according to the EIA.
A constructive oil-price backdrop, driven by the Iran war, is likely to have hurt the refining business of PBF Energy in the third quarter, since the input costs to produce final products were higher. A similar dynamic is likely to have affected Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR - Free Report) and Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) , belonging to the same space.
However, the high utilization of refineries in the United States to meet resilient demand is likely to have largely offset the negative impacts of high input costs.
PBF’s Price Performance & Valuation
PBF's stock has surged 127.8% over the past year, underperforming the industry’s 128.7% growth. PARR has jumped 88.8% over the same time frame, while VLO has gained 140.5%.
One-Year Price Chart
With PBF’s stock price underperforming the industry, the company appears relatively undervalued. The company's current trailing 12-month enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) is 5.15x, reflecting that it is trading at a discount compared with the industry average of 6.38x. VLO and PARR are valued at 5.63x and 3.26x, respectively.
Investment Thesis of PBF
PBF Energy is among the leading refiners in the United States. High refinery utilization amid resilient U.S. demand is expected to continue offsetting the negative impacts of elevated input costs, driven by high oil prices. This should boost PBF’s bottom line. The company’s business environment will likely remain lucrative, given that management expects the normalization of refined-product inventories to extend into 2027.
The mid-cap refiner’s prospects remain bright, as the company said on the second-quarter 2026 earnings call that California has had a persistent gasoline supply deficit. This is because roughly one-third of the state's gasoline requirements are met through imports, per data from the company’s transcript. Thus, PBF's established refining presence at Torrance and Martinez positions it to benefit from these market conditions, potentially supporting stronger margins and profitability.
Last Word
Given the favorable business landscape, it might be the ideal time for investors to bet on the undervalued energy stock.