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Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell BMY Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings?
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Key Takeaways
BMY is set to report Q3 results as growth drugs help stabilize revenues amid legacy product declines.
Eliquis revenue growth guidance rises to 20-25%, supported by strong global demand.
Pipeline advances offer long-term growth potential, while rising debt remains a concern.
Biotech giant Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 29, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $12.56 billion and $1.28 per share, respectively.
Earnings estimate for 2026 has decreased to $6.51 from $6.91 per share over the past 30 days, while that for 2027 has improved to $6.50 from $6.46.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BMY’s Earnings Surprise History
BMY has an excellent track record. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 14.43%. In the previously reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat estimates by 28.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Predicts for BMY
Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP for BMY is -15.06%. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Influencing BMY’s Q3 Results
BMY’s top line has likely gained from an increase in growth portfolio sales. The growth portfolio primarily comprises sales from drugs like Opdivo Qvantig, Orencia, Yervoy, Reblozyl, Camzyos, Breyanzi, Opdualag, Zeposia, Abecma, Sotyku, Krazati and Cobenfy.
Opdivo sales declined in the second quarter due to lower U.S. revenues, primarily due to continued conversion to Qvantig in the United States. The trend has likely continued in the third quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Opdivo sales are pegged at $2.4 billion.
The approval of Opdivo Qvantig (nivolumab and hyaluronidase-nvhy) injection for subcutaneous use boosted BMY’s immuno-oncology portfolio. Initial uptake was robust across all approved tumor types in the United States.
The trend has likely continued in the third quarter as well.
Opdualag sales remain robust, particularly in the United States, where it continues to serve as a standard of care in first-line melanoma.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Opdualag sales are pegged at $359 million and $363 million, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Orencia sales are pegged at $981 million and $995 million, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Yervoy sales are pegged at $756 million and $767 million, respectively.
Reblozyl, developed in partnership with Merck (MRK - Free Report) , posted solid growth in both the U.S. and international markets in the last reported quarter, with solid uptake in first-line MDS-associated anemia, continued strength in the second-line setting and further penetration in the first-line RS-negative population. The trend has likely continued in the third quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Reblozyl sales are pegged at $739 million and $734 million, respectively.
While Breyanzi sales grew in the second quarter, driven by its best-in-class profile and strong demand across approved indications in both the U.S. and international markets, BMY expects the typical summer demand patterns to have moderated growth in the third quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Breyanzi sales are pegged at $493 million and $489 million, respectively.
Camzyos sales, too, have likely witnessed growth, supported by growing demand and increased adoption among eligible patients. The FDA recently approved Camzyos for symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy to improve functional capacity and symptoms in adults and pediatric patients weighing 30 kg (66 lbs) or more.
The newly launched schizophrenia drug Cobenfy is off to a solid start, and sales have likely grown sequentially in the third quarter.
Increase in demand for psoriasis drug Sotyktu has likely boosted sales of the drug.
However, as in the previous quarters, total quarterly revenues have likely been adversely impacted by a decline in sales from the legacy portfolio, which includes Eliquis, Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel and Abraxane, among others.
Generic competition for Sprycel, Revlimid, Abraxane and Pomalyst has likely pulled down revenues from this portfolio.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pomalyst’s third-quarter sales is pegged at $115 million and our model estimate for the same is pinned at $132 million.
Eliquis sales continue to benefit from strong global demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Eliquis’ third-quarter sales is pegged at $4.6 billion and our model estimate for the same is pinned at $4.4 billion.
Bristol-Myers collaborated with Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) for Eliquis in 2007. Profits and losses are shared equally worldwide, except in certain countries where Pfizer commercializes Eliquis and pays BMY a sales-based fee.
BMY now expects Eliquis revenues to grow 20-25%, up from its prior guidance of 10-15%, supported by strong global demand. This is expected to have partially offset the overall segment decline.
Operating expenses have likely declined in the third quarter, primarily due to the company’s ongoing strategic productivity initiative.
BMY’s Price Performance and Valuation
Shares of BMY have gained 19% year to date compared with the industry’s growth of 5.7%. The stock has also outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 in this time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Going by the price/earnings ratio, BMY’s shares currently trade at 9.46X forward earnings, higher than its mean of 8.77X but lower than 19.03X for the large-cap pharma industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis for BMY
The continued erosion of sales from legacy drugs weigh on overall top-line growth.
Nonetheless, drugs like Reblozyl, Breyanzi, Camzyos and Opdualag have enabled BMY to stabilize its revenue base.
Approvals of additional new drugs and label expansions of key drugs should boost BMY’s top-line growth.
BMY’s recent pipeline progress strengthens its long-term growth prospects and could help offset pressure from its legacy portfolio.
Pipeline progress offers additional long-term growth potential, with Zenbexus, mezigdomide, arlo-cel and other candidates potentially expanding BMY’s presence across multiple therapeutic areas.
BMY is also advancing several candidates with multi-billion-dollar commercial potential, including milvexian, an oral Factor XIa inhibitor; admilparant, an LPA1 antagonist; and pumitamig, a PD-L1 x VEGF-A bispecific antibody.
BMY’s strategic collaborations and acquisitions aimed at bolstering its pipeline are noteworthy, though they have been funded by a significant increase in debt, which remains a concern.
Stay Invested in BMY Stock
BMY is one of the largest biotechs and such large biotech companies are generally considered safe havens for investors interested in this sector.
Regardless of how the third-quarter results turn out, we recommend prospective investors adopt a wait-and-watch approach before turning constructive on the stock. For existing shareholders, however, holding on to the stock appears reasonable, as its attractive dividend yield of 4.1% offers a steady income stream and provides an additional incentive to remain invested.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell BMY Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Biotech giant Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 29, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $12.56 billion and $1.28 per share, respectively.
Earnings estimate for 2026 has decreased to $6.51 from $6.91 per share over the past 30 days, while that for 2027 has improved to $6.50 from $6.46.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BMY’s Earnings Surprise History
BMY has an excellent track record. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 14.43%. In the previously reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat estimates by 28.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Predicts for BMY
Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP for BMY is -15.06%. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Influencing BMY’s Q3 Results
BMY’s top line has likely gained from an increase in growth portfolio sales. The growth portfolio primarily comprises sales from drugs like Opdivo Qvantig, Orencia, Yervoy, Reblozyl, Camzyos, Breyanzi, Opdualag, Zeposia, Abecma, Sotyku, Krazati and Cobenfy.
Opdivo sales declined in the second quarter due to lower U.S. revenues, primarily due to continued conversion to Qvantig in the United States. The trend has likely continued in the third quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Opdivo sales are pegged at $2.4 billion.
The approval of Opdivo Qvantig (nivolumab and hyaluronidase-nvhy) injection for subcutaneous use boosted BMY’s immuno-oncology portfolio. Initial uptake was robust across all approved tumor types in the United States.
The trend has likely continued in the third quarter as well.
Opdualag sales remain robust, particularly in the United States, where it continues to serve as a standard of care in first-line melanoma.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Opdualag sales are pegged at $359 million and $363 million, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Orencia sales are pegged at $981 million and $995 million, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Yervoy sales are pegged at $756 million and $767 million, respectively.
Reblozyl, developed in partnership with Merck (MRK - Free Report) , posted solid growth in both the U.S. and international markets in the last reported quarter, with solid uptake in first-line MDS-associated anemia, continued strength in the second-line setting and further penetration in the first-line RS-negative population. The trend has likely continued in the third quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Reblozyl sales are pegged at $739 million and $734 million, respectively.
While Breyanzi sales grew in the second quarter, driven by its best-in-class profile and strong demand across approved indications in both the U.S. and international markets, BMY expects the typical summer demand patterns to have moderated growth in the third quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Breyanzi sales are pegged at $493 million and $489 million, respectively.
Camzyos sales, too, have likely witnessed growth, supported by growing demand and increased adoption among eligible patients. The FDA recently approved Camzyos for symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy to improve functional capacity and symptoms in adults and pediatric patients weighing 30 kg (66 lbs) or more.
The newly launched schizophrenia drug Cobenfy is off to a solid start, and sales have likely grown sequentially in the third quarter.
Increase in demand for psoriasis drug Sotyktu has likely boosted sales of the drug.
However, as in the previous quarters, total quarterly revenues have likely been adversely impacted by a decline in sales from the legacy portfolio, which includes Eliquis, Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel and Abraxane, among others.
Generic competition for Sprycel, Revlimid, Abraxane and Pomalyst has likely pulled down revenues from this portfolio.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pomalyst’s third-quarter sales is pegged at $115 million and our model estimate for the same is pinned at $132 million.
Eliquis sales continue to benefit from strong global demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Eliquis’ third-quarter sales is pegged at $4.6 billion and our model estimate for the same is pinned at $4.4 billion.
Bristol-Myers collaborated with Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) for Eliquis in 2007. Profits and losses are shared equally worldwide, except in certain countries where Pfizer commercializes Eliquis and pays BMY a sales-based fee.
BMY now expects Eliquis revenues to grow 20-25%, up from its prior guidance of 10-15%, supported by strong global demand. This is expected to have partially offset the overall segment decline.
Operating expenses have likely declined in the third quarter, primarily due to the company’s ongoing strategic productivity initiative.
BMY’s Price Performance and Valuation
Shares of BMY have gained 19% year to date compared with the industry’s growth of 5.7%. The stock has also outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 in this time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Going by the price/earnings ratio, BMY’s shares currently trade at 9.46X forward earnings, higher than its mean of 8.77X but lower than 19.03X for the large-cap pharma industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis for BMY
The continued erosion of sales from legacy drugs weigh on overall top-line growth.
Nonetheless, drugs like Reblozyl, Breyanzi, Camzyos and Opdualag have enabled BMY to stabilize its revenue base.
Approvals of additional new drugs and label expansions of key drugs should boost BMY’s top-line growth.
BMY’s recent pipeline progress strengthens its long-term growth prospects and could help offset pressure from its legacy portfolio.
Pipeline progress offers additional long-term growth potential, with Zenbexus, mezigdomide, arlo-cel and other candidates potentially expanding BMY’s presence across multiple therapeutic areas.
BMY is also advancing several candidates with multi-billion-dollar commercial potential, including milvexian, an oral Factor XIa inhibitor; admilparant, an LPA1 antagonist; and pumitamig, a PD-L1 x VEGF-A bispecific antibody.
BMY’s strategic collaborations and acquisitions aimed at bolstering its pipeline are noteworthy, though they have been funded by a significant increase in debt, which remains a concern.
Stay Invested in BMY Stock
BMY is one of the largest biotechs and such large biotech companies are generally considered safe havens for investors interested in this sector.
Regardless of how the third-quarter results turn out, we recommend prospective investors adopt a wait-and-watch approach before turning constructive on the stock. For existing shareholders, however, holding on to the stock appears reasonable, as its attractive dividend yield of 4.1% offers a steady income stream and provides an additional incentive to remain invested.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.