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First Solar to Release Q3 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
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Key Takeaways
First Solar expects Q3 module sales of 3.9-4.5 GW and adjusted EBITDA of $625-$775 million.
Tariff benefits, Section 45X tax credits and CuRe price adjustments could support manufacturing economics.
Underutilized Malaysia and Vietnam facilities cost about $30M per quarter amid trade policy uncertainty.
First Solar (FSLR - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 29, after market close. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 43.1% in the last reported quarter.
Let’s discuss the factors that are likely to be reflected in the upcoming quarterly results.
Factors Likely to Have Impacted FSLR’s Q3 Performance
First Solar is well positioned to benefit from sustained demand for utility-scale solar power, supported by data-center expansion, electrification and growing electricity requirements. Demand from hyperscale customers and large-scale solar projects is expected to have further supported new bookings in the third quarter.
Management expects third-quarter module sales of 3.9-4.5 GW and adjusted EBITDA of $625-$775 million, including 3.2-3.7 GW of sales from U.S. manufacturing operations. These expectations indicate a solid operating outlook. This is expected to have been supported by tariff-related benefits and a higher mix of modules qualifying for Section 45X tax credits.
First Solar's CuRe technology offers potential improvements in module efficiency and energy output, which could have supported higher average selling prices and improved manufacturing economics on a cost-per-watt basis. The company has begun notifying customers about contractual CuRe price adjustments.
Changes in Section 301 tariffs, import restrictions or other trade measures could affect the economics of First Solar's international manufacturing operations and its ability to allocate production efficiently. Management indicated that decisions regarding approximately 1.8 GW of remaining fully finished capacity in Malaysia and Vietnam would depend on policy clarity and U.S. market economics. Continued uncertainty could delay customer commitments, complicate production planning and increase costs.
First Solar's Malaysia and Vietnam facilities continued to operate below their potential capacity because of uncertainty surrounding U.S. demand and trade policy. Management indicated that underutilization was resulting in approximately $30 million in quarterly costs, comprising both cash and noncash expenses. These costs may have continued to weigh on third-quarter performance amid delays in policy clarity and production-related decisions.
Q3 Expectations for FSLR
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.64 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 9.4%.
The consensus estimate for revenues is pinned at $1.31 billion, implying a 17.7% decrease year over year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Modules megawatt (MW) sold is pinned at 4,180 MW compared with 5,295 MW in the year-ago quarter.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for First Solar this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below.
Investors may consider the following players from the same industry, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Sunrun (RUN - Free Report) is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports third-quarter results on Nov. 4. It has an Earnings ESP of +124.7% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RUN’s earnings is pinned at 26 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 333.3%. It delivered an average earnings surprise of 710% in the trailing four quarters.
SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG - Free Report) is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports third-quarter results on Nov. 4. It has an Earnings ESP of +198.04% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SEDG’s earnings is pinned at 2 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 106.5%. It delivered an average earnings surprise of 2% for the last four quarters.
Array Technologies (ARRY - Free Report) is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports third-quarter results on Nov. 5. It has an Earnings ESP of +15.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
ARRY’s long-term (three to five years) earnings growth rate is 7.01%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at 10 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 66.7%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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First Solar to Release Q3 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
Key Takeaways
First Solar (FSLR - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 29, after market close. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 43.1% in the last reported quarter.
Let’s discuss the factors that are likely to be reflected in the upcoming quarterly results.
Factors Likely to Have Impacted FSLR’s Q3 Performance
First Solar is well positioned to benefit from sustained demand for utility-scale solar power, supported by data-center expansion, electrification and growing electricity requirements. Demand from hyperscale customers and large-scale solar projects is expected to have further supported new bookings in the third quarter.
Management expects third-quarter module sales of 3.9-4.5 GW and adjusted EBITDA of $625-$775 million, including 3.2-3.7 GW of sales from U.S. manufacturing operations. These expectations indicate a solid operating outlook. This is expected to have been supported by tariff-related benefits and a higher mix of modules qualifying for Section 45X tax credits.
First Solar's CuRe technology offers potential improvements in module efficiency and energy output, which could have supported higher average selling prices and improved manufacturing economics on a cost-per-watt basis. The company has begun notifying customers about contractual CuRe price adjustments.
Changes in Section 301 tariffs, import restrictions or other trade measures could affect the economics of First Solar's international manufacturing operations and its ability to allocate production efficiently. Management indicated that decisions regarding approximately 1.8 GW of remaining fully finished capacity in Malaysia and Vietnam would depend on policy clarity and U.S. market economics. Continued uncertainty could delay customer commitments, complicate production planning and increase costs.
First Solar's Malaysia and Vietnam facilities continued to operate below their potential capacity because of uncertainty surrounding U.S. demand and trade policy. Management indicated that underutilization was resulting in approximately $30 million in quarterly costs, comprising both cash and noncash expenses. These costs may have continued to weigh on third-quarter performance amid delays in policy clarity and production-related decisions.
Q3 Expectations for FSLR
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.64 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 9.4%.
The consensus estimate for revenues is pinned at $1.31 billion, implying a 17.7% decrease year over year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Modules megawatt (MW) sold is pinned at 4,180 MW compared with 5,295 MW in the year-ago quarter.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for First Solar this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below.
First Solar, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
First Solar, Inc. price-eps-surprise | First Solar, Inc. Quote
Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -0.97%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Currently, First Solar carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Investors may consider the following players from the same industry, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Sunrun (RUN - Free Report) is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports third-quarter results on Nov. 4. It has an Earnings ESP of +124.7% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RUN’s earnings is pinned at 26 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 333.3%. It delivered an average earnings surprise of 710% in the trailing four quarters.
SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG - Free Report) is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports third-quarter results on Nov. 4. It has an Earnings ESP of +198.04% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SEDG’s earnings is pinned at 2 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 106.5%. It delivered an average earnings surprise of 2% for the last four quarters.
Array Technologies (ARRY - Free Report) is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports third-quarter results on Nov. 5. It has an Earnings ESP of +15.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
ARRY’s long-term (three to five years) earnings growth rate is 7.01%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at 10 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 66.7%.