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Pfizer Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings: To Buy or Not to Buy?
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Key Takeaways
Pfizer will report Q3 results on Nov. 3, with consensus sales estimates at $16.13 billion and EPS at 72 cents.
Vyndaqel, Eliquis and oncology drugs may drive growth, offsetting COVID sales declines and patent risks.
Pfizer's pipeline, cost cuts, dividend yield and attractive valuation support its long-term investment case.
Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2026 earnings on Nov. 3, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings for the third quarter is pegged at $16.13 billion and 72 cents per share, respectively. Estimates for Pfizer’s 2026 earnings have declined from $2.98 to $2.94 per share over the past 30 days.
PFE Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The healthcare bellwether’s performance has been solid, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 16.62%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 13.24%, as seen in the chart below.
PFE’s Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Does Our Model Say?
Pfizer has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present, indicating a likely earnings surprise.
Per our proven model, companies with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 (Buy), or #3 have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Shaping PFE’s Upcoming Results
Higher sales of products like the Vyndaqel family, Eliquis, Padcev and Lorbrena are likely to have driven top-line growth. Among the newer products, sales of Nurtec ODT/Vydura, Cibinqo and the RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, are expected to have risen.
However, sales of some other key products like Enbrel are likely to have declined. Also, lower revenues from COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, are likely to have hurt top-line growth.
Expectations for PFE’s Primary Care Segment
In Primary Care, alliance revenues and direct sales from Bristol-Myers (BMY - Free Report) for Eliquis are likely to have risen, driven by higher demand trends globally, partially offset by price and generic erosion in some ex-U.S. markets. As for sales of the key vaccine Prevnar, higher sales in ex-U.S. markets are likely to have been offset by lower demand in the United States.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Eliquis is $2.38 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.66 billion.
Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) , for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Revenues from Pfizer/BioNTech’s Comirnaty are likely to have declined in the third quarter due to lower U.S. utilization following narrower vaccination recommendations. Sales of the antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid, may have declined due to lower infection rates, which hurt demand trends, and lower international government purchases.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $776.0 million, while that for Paxlovid is $326.0 million.
Sales of Abrysvo are likely to have gained from launch uptake in some international markets. However, favorable timing of deliveries in some international markets and buying patterns in the United States benefited sales in the second quarter, which may have reversed in the third quarter.
Expectations for PFE’s Oncology Segment
Pfizer’s oncology sales in the third quarter are expected to have been driven by higher sales of key drugs like Padcev, Lorbrena and the Braftovi-Mektovi combination, which might make up for declining sales of drugs like Ibrance and Adcetris. Sales of the new drug, Elrexfio, are also likely to have risen in the quarter.
Sales of oncology biosimilars are likely to have risen year over year and contributed to the oncology segment’s growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Padcev is $692.0 million, while that for Ibrance is $1.03 billion.
Expectations for PFE’s Specialty Care Segment
In the Specialty Care unit, sales of Vyndaqel are expected to have risen, as higher sales in international markets may offset lower revenues in the United States due to the impact of price erosion as a result of new payer contracts in the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the Vyndaqel family is $1.68 billion.
Sales of Xeljanz and Enbrel declined in the second quarter, a trend likely to have continued in the third quarter.
On the third-quarter conference call, Pfizer is also expected to provide an update on its 2026 financial guidance.
Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results are not so important for long-term investors. Let us delve deeper to understand whether to buy, sell or hold Pfizer stock.
PFE Stock’s Price & Valuation
Pfizer’s stock has risen 19.7% so far this year compared with an increase of 17.4% for the industry.
PFE Stock Outperforms Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Pfizer appears attractive relative to the industry and is trading below its five-year mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Pfizer’s shares currently trade at 10.11 forward earnings, significantly lower than 19.06 for the industry. However, the stock is trading above its five-year mean of 9.24.
PFE Stock Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis on PFE Stock
Pfizer's business mix has changed significantly over the past few years. During the pandemic, the company became heavily dependent on COVID-19 products. However, it is gradually diversifying its portfolio through a combination of internal product launches like Abrysvo, Zavzpret, Elrexfio, Hympavzi, Litfulo and others, strategic acquisitions like Seagen, Metsera and Biohaven and the continued growth of several established brands like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis.
Pfizer is one of the world’s leading oncology drugmakers with a broad portfolio of marketed cancer therapies as well as a deep oncology pipeline. Its oncology revenues are rising, driven by drugs like Xtandi, Lorbrena, the Braftovi-Mektovi combination and Padcev.
The company is also rebuilding its pipeline in oncology and obesity, which it believes can drive growth in 2028 and beyond. Pfizer plans an extensive phase III program for berobenatide, its monthly GLP-1 receptor agonist added from last year’s Metsera acquisition. It plans 10 phase III studies for berobenatide for obesity and obesity-related comorbidities, including knee osteoarthritis and obstructive sleep apnea. Three phase III studies on berobenatide have already begun. Pfizer is targeting the first of a series of potential approvals for berobenatide in 2028. However, in the obesity space, Pfizer lags far behind leaders like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
A key candidate in its oncology pipeline is PF-08634404, a dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitor in-licensed from Chinese biotech 3SBio in 2025. Pfizer aims to establish PF-08634404 as a potential backbone therapy across multiple tumor types.
Pfizer’s significant cost reduction and efforts to improve R&D productivity measures are also driving profit growth. Pfizer offers one of the highest dividend yields in the sector.
However, the company faces a significant patent cliff later this decade. Pfizer expects a significant negative impact on revenues from the LOE cliff in the 2026-2030 period as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, face patent expirations. The LOE cliff is expected to hurt sales by approximately $1.1 billion in 2026. Sales of its COVID products also continue to decline.
Pfizer’s revenue guidance for 2026 indicates mostly flat to slightly negative year-over-year growth.
Stay Invested in PFE Stock
Pfizer is navigating a difficult transition following a sharp decline in COVID-related sales from Comirnaty and Paxlovid. The market is concerned about Pfizer’s ability to replace declining COVID-related revenues and offset upcoming patent expirations through new product launches, pipeline development and contributions from acquisitions.
However, Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products, along with a strong pipeline, to help it return to growth from 2029 onward. Although Pfizer’s 2026 sales guidance indicates minimal growth, the company expects a high single-digit revenue CAGR for five years, starting from year-end 2028.
No matter how the third-quarter results play out, investors may hold on to this stock at current levels given its rising price and estimates, attractive valuation, high dividend yield and efforts to rebuild its growth profile.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Pfizer Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings: To Buy or Not to Buy?
Key Takeaways
Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2026 earnings on Nov. 3, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings for the third quarter is pegged at $16.13 billion and 72 cents per share, respectively. Estimates for Pfizer’s 2026 earnings have declined from $2.98 to $2.94 per share over the past 30 days.
PFE Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The healthcare bellwether’s performance has been solid, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 16.62%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 13.24%, as seen in the chart below.
PFE’s Earnings Surprise History
What Does Our Model Say?
Pfizer has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present, indicating a likely earnings surprise.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Per our proven model, companies with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 (Buy), or #3 have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Shaping PFE’s Upcoming Results
Higher sales of products like the Vyndaqel family, Eliquis, Padcev and Lorbrena are likely to have driven top-line growth. Among the newer products, sales of Nurtec ODT/Vydura, Cibinqo and the RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, are expected to have risen.
However, sales of some other key products like Enbrel are likely to have declined. Also, lower revenues from COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, are likely to have hurt top-line growth.
Expectations for PFE’s Primary Care Segment
In Primary Care, alliance revenues and direct sales from Bristol-Myers (BMY - Free Report) for Eliquis are likely to have risen, driven by higher demand trends globally, partially offset by price and generic erosion in some ex-U.S. markets. As for sales of the key vaccine Prevnar, higher sales in ex-U.S. markets are likely to have been offset by lower demand in the United States.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Eliquis is $2.38 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.66 billion.
Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) , for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Revenues from Pfizer/BioNTech’s Comirnaty are likely to have declined in the third quarter due to lower U.S. utilization following narrower vaccination recommendations. Sales of the antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid, may have declined due to lower infection rates, which hurt demand trends, and lower international government purchases.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $776.0 million, while that for Paxlovid is $326.0 million.
Sales of Abrysvo are likely to have gained from launch uptake in some international markets. However, favorable timing of deliveries in some international markets and buying patterns in the United States benefited sales in the second quarter, which may have reversed in the third quarter.
Expectations for PFE’s Oncology Segment
Pfizer’s oncology sales in the third quarter are expected to have been driven by higher sales of key drugs like Padcev, Lorbrena and the Braftovi-Mektovi combination, which might make up for declining sales of drugs like Ibrance and Adcetris. Sales of the new drug, Elrexfio, are also likely to have risen in the quarter.
Sales of oncology biosimilars are likely to have risen year over year and contributed to the oncology segment’s growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Padcev is $692.0 million, while that for Ibrance is $1.03 billion.
Expectations for PFE’s Specialty Care Segment
In the Specialty Care unit, sales of Vyndaqel are expected to have risen, as higher sales in international markets may offset lower revenues in the United States due to the impact of price erosion as a result of new payer contracts in the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the Vyndaqel family is $1.68 billion.
Sales of Xeljanz and Enbrel declined in the second quarter, a trend likely to have continued in the third quarter.
On the third-quarter conference call, Pfizer is also expected to provide an update on its 2026 financial guidance.
Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results are not so important for long-term investors. Let us delve deeper to understand whether to buy, sell or hold Pfizer stock.
PFE Stock’s Price & Valuation
Pfizer’s stock has risen 19.7% so far this year compared with an increase of 17.4% for the industry.
PFE Stock Outperforms Industry
From a valuation standpoint, Pfizer appears attractive relative to the industry and is trading below its five-year mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Pfizer’s shares currently trade at 10.11 forward earnings, significantly lower than 19.06 for the industry. However, the stock is trading above its five-year mean of 9.24.
PFE Stock Valuation
Investment Thesis on PFE Stock
Pfizer's business mix has changed significantly over the past few years. During the pandemic, the company became heavily dependent on COVID-19 products. However, it is gradually diversifying its portfolio through a combination of internal product launches like Abrysvo, Zavzpret, Elrexfio, Hympavzi, Litfulo and others, strategic acquisitions like Seagen, Metsera and Biohaven and the continued growth of several established brands like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis.
Pfizer is one of the world’s leading oncology drugmakers with a broad portfolio of marketed cancer therapies as well as a deep oncology pipeline. Its oncology revenues are rising, driven by drugs like Xtandi, Lorbrena, the Braftovi-Mektovi combination and Padcev.
The company is also rebuilding its pipeline in oncology and obesity, which it believes can drive growth in 2028 and beyond. Pfizer plans an extensive phase III program for berobenatide, its monthly GLP-1 receptor agonist added from last year’s Metsera acquisition. It plans 10 phase III studies for berobenatide for obesity and obesity-related comorbidities, including knee osteoarthritis and obstructive sleep apnea. Three phase III studies on berobenatide have already begun. Pfizer is targeting the first of a series of potential approvals for berobenatide in 2028. However, in the obesity space, Pfizer lags far behind leaders like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
A key candidate in its oncology pipeline is PF-08634404, a dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitor in-licensed from Chinese biotech 3SBio in 2025. Pfizer aims to establish PF-08634404 as a potential backbone therapy across multiple tumor types.
Pfizer’s significant cost reduction and efforts to improve R&D productivity measures are also driving profit growth. Pfizer offers one of the highest dividend yields in the sector.
However, the company faces a significant patent cliff later this decade. Pfizer expects a significant negative impact on revenues from the LOE cliff in the 2026-2030 period as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, face patent expirations. The LOE cliff is expected to hurt sales by approximately $1.1 billion in 2026. Sales of its COVID products also continue to decline.
Pfizer’s revenue guidance for 2026 indicates mostly flat to slightly negative year-over-year growth.
Stay Invested in PFE Stock
Pfizer is navigating a difficult transition following a sharp decline in COVID-related sales from Comirnaty and Paxlovid. The market is concerned about Pfizer’s ability to replace declining COVID-related revenues and offset upcoming patent expirations through new product launches, pipeline development and contributions from acquisitions.
However, Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products, along with a strong pipeline, to help it return to growth from 2029 onward. Although Pfizer’s 2026 sales guidance indicates minimal growth, the company expects a high single-digit revenue CAGR for five years, starting from year-end 2028.
No matter how the third-quarter results play out, investors may hold on to this stock at current levels given its rising price and estimates, attractive valuation, high dividend yield and efforts to rebuild its growth profile.