A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Vail Resorts (MTN Quick QuoteMTN - Free Report) . Shares have added about 7.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Vail Resorts due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Vail Resorts Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates as Lodging Revenues Gain

Vail Resorts reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with the loss per share narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues surpassing the same. Revenues increased year over year, while the per-share loss widened from the prior-year period. 

Results reflected stronger lodging performance and disciplined cost management, while unfavorable weather in Australia weighed on skier visitation. Higher effective ticket pricing partly offset the pressure from lower volumes.

MTN's Q4 Earnings & Revenues

In the quarter under review, the company reported a loss of $5.34 per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $5.40 by 1.1%. In the year-ago quarter, Vail Resorts had reported a loss of $4.99 per share.

Quarterly revenues were $278.07 million, beating the consensus estimate of $270.11 million by 2.9%. Revenues increased from $271.29 million in the prior-year quarter. Resort net revenues were nearly flat, as strong performance at Grand Teton Lodge Company was partly offset by weaker Australian results.

MTN's Mountain Revenues Face Weather Pressure

Mountain segment net revenues fell 2.8% year over year to $175.86 million. The figure came in below our model’s projection of $190.4 million. Lift revenues declined 3.1% to $46.12 million, while ski school revenues dropped 20.4% to $7.78 million and retail/rental revenues decreased 9.7% to $21.76 million.

Dining revenues increased 3.1% to $18.96 million, while other Mountain revenues were nearly flat at $81.24 million. Mountain Reported EBITDA was a loss of $129.84 million compared with a loss of $127.65 million a year ago. Unfavorable Australian weather was a key headwind, with cumulative snowfall about 57% below the 10-year average.

Vail Resorts' Lodging Business Posts Strong Growth

Lodging net revenues advanced 6.6% year over year to $96.22 million. The figure surpassed our projection of $78.5 million. Owned hotel room revenues rose 7.5% to $33.93 million, dining revenues increased 4.7% to $18.64 million and golf revenues improved 9.4% to $8.62 million.

Lodging reported EBITDA jumped 82.7% to $7.49 million. Owned hotel average daily rate increased 2.8% to $340.21, while RevPAR, or revenue per available room, improved 8.2% to $200.62. Strong performance at Grand Teton Lodge Company helped offset softer Australian resort trends.

MTN Controls Costs as Resort EBITDA Improves

Resort operating expenses edged down to $394.88 million from $395.11 million in the prior-year quarter. General and administrative expenses declined to $99.41 million from $106.31 million, while Mountain and Lodging operating expenses rose to $270.98 million from $262.98 million.

Resort Reported EBITDA improved 1.0% to a loss of $122.36 million. The quarter benefited from the absence of $8.1 million in CEO transition costs incurred a year earlier, disciplined cost management and $4 million lower one-time resource efficiency transformation costs. These gains were partly offset by inflation, higher marketing investments and weaker Australian performance.

Vail Resorts Maintains Liquidity and Capital Spending

Vail Resorts ended fiscal 2026 with total liquidity of approximately $0.8 billion. Net debt was $2.92 billion, while net leverage stood at 3.9 times trailing 12-month Total Reported EBITDA.

The board declared a quarterly dividend of $2.22 per share, payable Oct. 27, 2026, to shareholders of record as of Oct. 8. The company also reaffirmed its calendar 2026 core capital plan of $215-$220 million and expects total investments of $229-$234 million, including growth initiatives.

Vail Resorts' 2027 Outlook Assumes Visitation Recovery

For fiscal 2027, management expects net income attributable to Vail Resorts of $158-$233 million and Resort Reported EBITDA of $805-$865 million, including approximately $14 million of one-time costs. The outlook assumes a meaningful recovery in visitation, higher lift ticket traffic, pricing growth, increased ancillary spending and about $25 million of incremental efficiency savings. 

Pass trends remain a key consideration. Through Sept. 18, 2026, pass product units for the upcoming North American ski season declined approximately 12%, days sold decreased 10% and sales dollars fell 6%. Weakness remained concentrated in destination frequency products, with management pointing to potential delayed purchases among less-committed guests and an opportunity to recapture some demand through later pass sales or in-season lift tickets. 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

Currently, Vail Resorts has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Vail Resorts has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.