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What's in Store for Marriott Vacations (VAC) in Q1 Earnings?

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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp. (VAC - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2018 numbers on May 3, before the opening bell.

The company’s call transfer, Encore and linkage programs have substantially helped it in driving tours in 2017 and the trend is expected to have continued in the first quarter as well. Also, higher sales along with benefits from reduced loyalty fee and lower cost of Marriott Rewards points are expected to have driven earnings in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, shares of the company have risen 8.6% in the past year, underperforming the industry’s gain of 25.3%.

Let’s discuss how the company’s top and bottom line will shape up in the first quarter of 2018.

Factors at Play

The company’s distinguished marketing programs and continued surge in newest sales distribution have effectively aided sales in 2017. In 2017, the company’s total revenues increased 7.9% year over year and the northward trend is likely to have continued in the first quarter as well. Subsequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $534.07 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 9.6%.

Meanwhile, Marriott Vacations expects to directly benefit from reduced royalty fee, lower cost of Marriott Rewards points from Marriott and incremental co-marketing funds provided by Marriott’s credit card agreements. In 2017, the company’s net income rose 65.1% and the trend is expected to have continued in the first quarter of 2018 as well. The consensus estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.50, suggesting 23% growth from the prior-year quarter.

Despite high expenses associated with hotel operations, we believe that the company’s first-quarter earnings will grow on higher sales from various initiatives and cost savings resulting from joining Marriott on the reward program.

Our Quantitative Model Does Not Suggest a Beat

Our quantitative model predicts that Marriott Vacations does not have the right combination of two main ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.

Zacks ESP: Marriott Vacations has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Marriott Vacations carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we also need a positive ESP to be confident of an earnings beat. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Conversely, we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Marriot Vacations Worldwide Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks from the Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the to-be-reported quarter:

Earnings ESP for Walt Disney (DIS - Free Report) , Marriott (MAR - Free Report) and Discovery Communications is +1.34%, +0.40%, +0.39%, respectively. While Walt Disney and Marriott carry a Zacks Rank #3, Discovery Communications holds a Zacks Rank #2. All the companies are scheduled to report quarterly numbers on May 8.

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