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Are These 4 Insurance Stocks Set to Beat Q3 Earnings Estimates?
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Key Takeaways
Better pricing, solid retention and exposure growth across business lines are likely to have driven premiums.
Global insurance rates fell 5% in Q3 2026, with property down 10% and casualty rates up 1%.
Higher bond yields and technology investments are likely to boost investment income and margins.
Continued improved pricing, exposure growth, portfolio streamlining, solid retention, renewals, reinsurance agreements and accelerated digitalization are expected to have enhanced insurance stocks’ October-quarter performance. Insurers yet to report their third-quarter results on Nov. 3 are Assurant, Inc. (AIZ - Free Report) , American International Group, Inc. (AIG - Free Report) , Unum Group (UNM - Free Report) and Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU - Free Report) .
The insurance space is housed within the broader Finance sector (one of the 16 broad Zacks sectors within the Zacks Industry classification). Per the latest Earnings Preview, the total earnings of finance companies for the third quarter are anticipated to rise 19.7% from the prior-year quarter’s figure. These companies’ revenues are anticipated to improve 8.4%.
Factors Likely to Shape Insurers’ Performance in Q3
Better pricing, solid retention and exposure growth across business lines are likely to have driven premiums. Per the latest Marsh Global Insurance Market Index, global insurance rates continued to decline 5% in the third quarter of 2026, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of reductions amid ample capacity across nearly all regions and lines of coverage. Property rates eased for the ninth consecutive quarter, declining 10%, while casualty rates increased 1%.
Auto premiums are likely to have improved, given increased travel across the world.
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4%, its first rate hike since July 2023, citing still-elevated inflation. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Oct. 28, but may hike rates again before the end of the year.
A larger investment asset base, strong cash flow from operating activities, higher bond yields and an increase in interest income from fixed-maturity securities are expected to have aided net investment income.
The insurance industry’s increased use of technology like blockchain, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, telematics, cloud computing and robotic process automation expedites business operations. Insurers continue to invest heavily in technology to improve basis points, scale and efficiencies. These investments are likely to have curbed costs and aided the margins of insurers in the third quarter.
A solid capital position is likely to have aided insurers in strategic mergers and acquisitions to sharpen their competitive edge, expand geographically and diversify their portfolio. Sustained wealth distribution to shareholders via dividend hikes, special dividends and share repurchases instills confidence in the insurers.
Let’s find out how the following insurers are positioned before their third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 3.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Per our proprietary model, the combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Assurant: Solid performance in the Global Lifestyle and Global Housing segments is likely to have supported Assurant's third-quarter performance. Revenues are expected to have benefited from higher net earned premiums, increased fees and other income, and growth in net investment income. Net earned premiums are expected to have benefited from higher premiums in the Global Housing and Global Lifestyle segments. We expect net earned premiums to increase 1.7% to $2.7 billion in the to-be-reported quarter. Fees and other income are expected to increase 21.3% to $587.4 million in the third quarter.
Net investment income is expected to have benefited from higher invested asset balances and reinvestment at attractive yields. Continued growth in investment income is likely to have supported revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. We expect net investment income to be $153.1 million. Global Housing is expected to have benefited from higher lender-placed policies in force, average premiums and growth in specialty products. However, elevated mortgage rates and housing affordability challenges could have weighed on home sales and refinancing activity. We expect the segment's revenues to decrease 1.1% to $731 million. (Read more: Will Assurant Pull Off an Earnings Beat in the Third Quarter?)
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AIZ’s third-quarter 2026 bottom line is pegged at $4.57, indicating a 20.2% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
AIZ’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, the average surprise being 17.74%. This is depicted in the chart below:
American International Group: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter General Insurance net premiums earned suggests 6.4% year-over-year growth, driven by anticipated increases across the North America Commercial and International Commercial businesses. The consensus estimate for net investment income indicates a 27.7% surge from the year-ago quarter. These factors are likely to have supported top-line growth in the third quarter.
However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the General Insurance combined ratio is pegged at 92%, indicating a deterioration of 520 basis points from 86.8% in the year-ago quarter. The combined ratio for International Commercial operations is expected to deteriorate 600 basis points to 90.9% from 84.9% a year ago, reflecting pressure on underwriting profitability. The consensus estimate for General Insurance adjusted pre-tax income suggests an approximately 18% year-over-year decline. Additionally, Other Operations is expected to report a wider adjusted pre-tax loss compared with the prior-year quarter. (Read more: Will Higher Premiums Help AIG Navigate Q3 Underwriting Pressures?)
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AIG’s third-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.85 per share, indicating a decrease of 15.9% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of -1.29% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AIG’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, the average surprise being 12.88%. This is depicted in the chart below:
American International Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Unum Group: Favorable persistency and better sales in the operating segments are likely to have favored premiums in the third quarter. Our estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium income are both pegged at $2.6 billion. Net investment income is likely to have increased, primarily driven by higher invested assets and portfolio yields. Higher sales across its operating segments are also expected to have contributed to premium growth. Our estimate for investment income is pegged at $268 million, suggesting a 44% decrease from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $264 million.
The Unum U.S. segment is likely to have benefited from higher premiums in group disability and group life, supported by sales growth and favorable persistency. However, higher claim incidence in short-term disability, particularly paid family and medical leave products, could have weighed on group disability margins. We estimate Unum U.S. operating revenues at $2 billion. Colonial Life is likely to have benefited from higher sales, favorable claims experience and growth in premium income. Persistency trends will also remain important for the segment. Our estimate for Colonial Life’s operating revenues is $513 million. (Read more: Is a Beat in Store for Unum Group This Earnings Season?)
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNM’s third-quarter 2026 earnings is $2.18 per share, indicating an increase of 4.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.64% and a Zacks Rank #3.
UNM’s earnings surpassed estimates in two of the last four quarters, while missing in the other two. This is depicted in the chart below:
Prudential Financial: Group Insurance segment is likely to have benefited from higher net underwriting results and higher net investment spread results, partially offset by higher expenses. U.S. Legacy Products segment is likely to be affected by lower underwriting results, lower fee income and lower net investment spread results.
The Retirement business is likely to have been affected by lower underwriting results and higher expenses, partially offset by higher net investment spread results. Individual Life is likely to have benefited from higher underwriting results and net investment spread results. PGIM is likely to have benefited from higher net asset management fees, higher net service, distribution and other revenues, and higher net other related revenues. Assets under management are likely to have benefited from equity market appreciation and strong investment performance. The upside is likely to be partially offset by realizations and distributions, unfavorable foreign exchange rate impacts and net outflows. (Read more: PRU Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Here's What to Expect)
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PRU’s third-quarter 2026 bottom line is pegged at $3.31, indicating a 22.3% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
PRU’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one, the average surprise being 10.83%. This is depicted in the chart below:
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Are These 4 Insurance Stocks Set to Beat Q3 Earnings Estimates?
Key Takeaways
Continued improved pricing, exposure growth, portfolio streamlining, solid retention, renewals, reinsurance agreements and accelerated digitalization are expected to have enhanced insurance stocks’ October-quarter performance. Insurers yet to report their third-quarter results on Nov. 3 are Assurant, Inc. (AIZ - Free Report) , American International Group, Inc. (AIG - Free Report) , Unum Group (UNM - Free Report) and Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU - Free Report) .
The insurance space is housed within the broader Finance sector (one of the 16 broad Zacks sectors within the Zacks Industry classification). Per the latest Earnings Preview, the total earnings of finance companies for the third quarter are anticipated to rise 19.7% from the prior-year quarter’s figure. These companies’ revenues are anticipated to improve 8.4%.
Factors Likely to Shape Insurers’ Performance in Q3
Better pricing, solid retention and exposure growth across business lines are likely to have driven premiums. Per the latest Marsh Global Insurance Market Index, global insurance rates continued to decline 5% in the third quarter of 2026, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of reductions amid ample capacity across nearly all regions and lines of coverage. Property rates eased for the ninth consecutive quarter, declining 10%, while casualty rates increased 1%.
Auto premiums are likely to have improved, given increased travel across the world.
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4%, its first rate hike since July 2023, citing still-elevated inflation. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Oct. 28, but may hike rates again before the end of the year.
A larger investment asset base, strong cash flow from operating activities, higher bond yields and an increase in interest income from fixed-maturity securities are expected to have aided net investment income.
The insurance industry’s increased use of technology like blockchain, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, telematics, cloud computing and robotic process automation expedites business operations. Insurers continue to invest heavily in technology to improve basis points, scale and efficiencies. These investments are likely to have curbed costs and aided the margins of insurers in the third quarter.
A solid capital position is likely to have aided insurers in strategic mergers and acquisitions to sharpen their competitive edge, expand geographically and diversify their portfolio. Sustained wealth distribution to shareholders via dividend hikes, special dividends and share repurchases instills confidence in the insurers.
Let’s find out how the following insurers are positioned before their third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 3.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Per our proprietary model, the combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Assurant: Solid performance in the Global Lifestyle and Global Housing segments is likely to have supported Assurant's third-quarter performance. Revenues are expected to have benefited from higher net earned premiums, increased fees and other income, and growth in net investment income. Net earned premiums are expected to have benefited from higher premiums in the Global Housing and Global Lifestyle segments. We expect net earned premiums to increase 1.7% to $2.7 billion in the to-be-reported quarter. Fees and other income are expected to increase 21.3% to $587.4 million in the third quarter.
Net investment income is expected to have benefited from higher invested asset balances and reinvestment at attractive yields. Continued growth in investment income is likely to have supported revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. We expect net investment income to be $153.1 million. Global Housing is expected to have benefited from higher lender-placed policies in force, average premiums and growth in specialty products. However, elevated mortgage rates and housing affordability challenges could have weighed on home sales and refinancing activity. We expect the segment's revenues to decrease 1.1% to $731 million. (Read more: Will Assurant Pull Off an Earnings Beat in the Third Quarter?)
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AIZ’s third-quarter 2026 bottom line is pegged at $4.57, indicating a 20.2% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
AIZ’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, the average surprise being 17.74%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Assurant, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Assurant, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Assurant, Inc. Quote
American International Group: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter General Insurance net premiums earned suggests 6.4% year-over-year growth, driven by anticipated increases across the North America Commercial and International Commercial businesses. The consensus estimate for net investment income indicates a 27.7% surge from the year-ago quarter. These factors are likely to have supported top-line growth in the third quarter.
However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the General Insurance combined ratio is pegged at 92%, indicating a deterioration of 520 basis points from 86.8% in the year-ago quarter. The combined ratio for International Commercial operations is expected to deteriorate 600 basis points to 90.9% from 84.9% a year ago, reflecting pressure on underwriting profitability. The consensus estimate for General Insurance adjusted pre-tax income suggests an approximately 18% year-over-year decline. Additionally, Other Operations is expected to report a wider adjusted pre-tax loss compared with the prior-year quarter. (Read more: Will Higher Premiums Help AIG Navigate Q3 Underwriting Pressures?)
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AIG’s third-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.85 per share, indicating a decrease of 15.9% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of -1.29% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AIG’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, the average surprise being 12.88%. This is depicted in the chart below:
American International Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
American International Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | American International Group, Inc. Quote
Unum Group: Favorable persistency and better sales in the operating segments are likely to have favored premiums in the third quarter. Our estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium income are both pegged at $2.6 billion. Net investment income is likely to have increased, primarily driven by higher invested assets and portfolio yields. Higher sales across its operating segments are also expected to have contributed to premium growth. Our estimate for investment income is pegged at $268 million, suggesting a 44% decrease from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $264 million.
The Unum U.S. segment is likely to have benefited from higher premiums in group disability and group life, supported by sales growth and favorable persistency. However, higher claim incidence in short-term disability, particularly paid family and medical leave products, could have weighed on group disability margins. We estimate Unum U.S. operating revenues at $2 billion. Colonial Life is likely to have benefited from higher sales, favorable claims experience and growth in premium income. Persistency trends will also remain important for the segment. Our estimate for Colonial Life’s operating revenues is $513 million. (Read more: Is a Beat in Store for Unum Group This Earnings Season?)
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNM’s third-quarter 2026 earnings is $2.18 per share, indicating an increase of 4.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.64% and a Zacks Rank #3.
UNM’s earnings surpassed estimates in two of the last four quarters, while missing in the other two. This is depicted in the chart below:
Unum Group Price and EPS Surprise
Unum Group price-eps-surprise | Unum Group Quote
Prudential Financial: Group Insurance segment is likely to have benefited from higher net underwriting results and higher net investment spread results, partially offset by higher expenses. U.S. Legacy Products segment is likely to be affected by lower underwriting results, lower fee income and lower net investment spread results.
The Retirement business is likely to have been affected by lower underwriting results and higher expenses, partially offset by higher net investment spread results. Individual Life is likely to have benefited from higher underwriting results and net investment spread results. PGIM is likely to have benefited from higher net asset management fees, higher net service, distribution and other revenues, and higher net other related revenues. Assets under management are likely to have benefited from equity market appreciation and strong investment performance. The upside is likely to be partially offset by realizations and distributions, unfavorable foreign exchange rate impacts and net outflows. (Read more: PRU Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Here's What to Expect)
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PRU’s third-quarter 2026 bottom line is pegged at $3.31, indicating a 22.3% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
PRU’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one, the average surprise being 10.83%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Prudential Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Prudential Financial, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Prudential Financial, Inc. Quote