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Buy Moderna Stock Before Q3 Earnings? Here's What to Know
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Key Takeaways
Moderna reports Q3 earnings Nov. 6, with sales estimated at $888.8 million and a $1.37 per-share loss.
COVID-19 vaccines are expected to drive sales, while new flu and RSV vaccines face commercial challenges.
Cancer therapy progress boosts long-term prospects, but premium valuation and continued losses pose risks.
Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Nov. 6, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales is pinned at $888.8 million, while that for earnings is pegged at a loss of $1.37 per share. Both metrics suggest a decline from their year-ago levels.
Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Moderna’s 2026 loss per share has widened from $8.50 to $8.52, while the estimate for 2027 has narrowed from $4.45 to $4.42.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MRNA’s Earnings Surprise History
The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and met once in the remaining, delivering an average surprise of 39.02%. In the last reported quarter, Moderna’s earnings matched expectations.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Predicts for MRNA
Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before earnings are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Likely to Shape Moderna’s Upcoming Results
Moderna is likely to have generated product sales in the to-be-reported quarter from its respiratory portfolio, which includes vaccines for COVID-19 (Spikevax and mNexspike), influenza (mFlusiva) and RSV (mResvia).
We expect COVID-19 vaccines to have accounted for the bulk of product sales. Although mFlusiva became available in the United States in mid-September (following FDA approval in August), its contribution to third-quarter sales is likely to have been modest, given the limited selling window and selective initial rollout. As Moderna missed the contracting cycle for the 2026 U.S. flu season, analysts do not expect meaningful revenues from the vaccine until the second half of 2027.
mResvia is likely to have contributed minimally to product sales, reflecting stiff competition from established RSV vaccines Arexvy and Abrysvo, marketed by GSK plc (GSK - Free Report) and Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) , respectively.
On the pipeline front, investors have been seeking for management’s commentary on the anticipated timing of regulatory submissions for intismeran autogene, Moderna’s personalized mRNA-based cancer therapy being jointly developed with Merck (MRK - Free Report) . Last month, the companies announced detailed data from a phase III study evaluating intismeran plus Merck’s Keytruda in patients with completely resected, high-risk (Stage IIB-IV) melanoma. The combination reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 42% and the risk of distant metastasis or death by 38% compared with Keytruda alone.
Beyond melanoma, Moderna and Merck are evaluating intismeran in nine phase II and phase III studies across several cancers, including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), bladder cancer and renal cell carcinoma. Updates on the progress and milestones of these studies could provide further insight into the therapy's potential to expand into additional cancer indications.
Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results should be considered alongside Moderna’s longer-term prospects. Let us take a closer look at whether to buy, sell or hold the stock at present.
MRNA’s Stock Price Performance & Valuation
Year to date, Moderna’s shares have skyrocketed 652% compared with the industry’s 10% growth. The stock has also outperformed the sector as well as the S&P 500.
MRNA Stock Outperforms Industry, Sector & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Moderna is trading at a premium to the industry. Based on the price-to-sales ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 34.10 times forward 12-month sales, compared with 2.08 times for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Investment Thesis on MRNA Stock
Moderna’s long-term prospects have strengthened following the positive phase III results for intismeran, which bolster the potential of its oncology pipeline and its ambition to evolve beyond a COVID-19 vaccine maker into a diversified pharmaceutical company. However, translating this clinical progress into meaningful commercial revenue will take time, as the company still needs to secure regulatory approvals, advance its broader oncology pipeline and establish commercial traction for its newer products.
Meanwhile, Moderna’s shares have rallied sharply, pushing its valuation to a substantial premium over the industry as well as its peers. With the company continuing to report losses and its newer growth drivers yet to demonstrate their full commercial potential, the elevated valuation leaves little room for delays in regulatory progress or weaker-than-expected product uptake. Moreover, the path to sustainable profitability remains challenging.
The near-term earnings outlook also offers little positive support, as Moderna's negative Earnings ESP does not signal favorable odds of an earnings beat under the Zacks Earnings ESP model.
How to Play MRNA Stock?
Given the sharp rally and premium valuation, the stock's risk-reward profile appears less attractive for short-term investors, who may be better off waiting for a more favorable entry point rather than chasing the recent gains.
Long-term investors may consider holding their positions to participate in Moderna’s evolving growth opportunities, particularly in oncology, while recognizing that the company's transition to sustainable growth and profitability will take time.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Buy Moderna Stock Before Q3 Earnings? Here's What to Know
Key Takeaways
Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Nov. 6, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales is pinned at $888.8 million, while that for earnings is pegged at a loss of $1.37 per share. Both metrics suggest a decline from their year-ago levels.
Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Moderna’s 2026 loss per share has widened from $8.50 to $8.52, while the estimate for 2027 has narrowed from $4.45 to $4.42.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MRNA’s Earnings Surprise History
The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and met once in the remaining, delivering an average surprise of 39.02%. In the last reported quarter, Moderna’s earnings matched expectations.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Predicts for MRNA
Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before earnings are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Moderna has an Earnings ESP of -71.32% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Shape Moderna’s Upcoming Results
Moderna is likely to have generated product sales in the to-be-reported quarter from its respiratory portfolio, which includes vaccines for COVID-19 (Spikevax and mNexspike), influenza (mFlusiva) and RSV (mResvia).
We expect COVID-19 vaccines to have accounted for the bulk of product sales. Although mFlusiva became available in the United States in mid-September (following FDA approval in August), its contribution to third-quarter sales is likely to have been modest, given the limited selling window and selective initial rollout. As Moderna missed the contracting cycle for the 2026 U.S. flu season, analysts do not expect meaningful revenues from the vaccine until the second half of 2027.
mResvia is likely to have contributed minimally to product sales, reflecting stiff competition from established RSV vaccines Arexvy and Abrysvo, marketed by GSK plc (GSK - Free Report) and Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) , respectively.
On the pipeline front, investors have been seeking for management’s commentary on the anticipated timing of regulatory submissions for intismeran autogene, Moderna’s personalized mRNA-based cancer therapy being jointly developed with Merck (MRK - Free Report) . Last month, the companies announced detailed data from a phase III study evaluating intismeran plus Merck’s Keytruda in patients with completely resected, high-risk (Stage IIB-IV) melanoma. The combination reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 42% and the risk of distant metastasis or death by 38% compared with Keytruda alone.
Beyond melanoma, Moderna and Merck are evaluating intismeran in nine phase II and phase III studies across several cancers, including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), bladder cancer and renal cell carcinoma. Updates on the progress and milestones of these studies could provide further insight into the therapy's potential to expand into additional cancer indications.
Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results should be considered alongside Moderna’s longer-term prospects. Let us take a closer look at whether to buy, sell or hold the stock at present.
MRNA’s Stock Price Performance & Valuation
Year to date, Moderna’s shares have skyrocketed 652% compared with the industry’s 10% growth. The stock has also outperformed the sector as well as the S&P 500.
MRNA Stock Outperforms Industry, Sector & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Moderna is trading at a premium to the industry. Based on the price-to-sales ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 34.10 times forward 12-month sales, compared with 2.08 times for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Investment Thesis on MRNA Stock
Moderna’s long-term prospects have strengthened following the positive phase III results for intismeran, which bolster the potential of its oncology pipeline and its ambition to evolve beyond a COVID-19 vaccine maker into a diversified pharmaceutical company. However, translating this clinical progress into meaningful commercial revenue will take time, as the company still needs to secure regulatory approvals, advance its broader oncology pipeline and establish commercial traction for its newer products.
Meanwhile, Moderna’s shares have rallied sharply, pushing its valuation to a substantial premium over the industry as well as its peers. With the company continuing to report losses and its newer growth drivers yet to demonstrate their full commercial potential, the elevated valuation leaves little room for delays in regulatory progress or weaker-than-expected product uptake. Moreover, the path to sustainable profitability remains challenging.
The near-term earnings outlook also offers little positive support, as Moderna's negative Earnings ESP does not signal favorable odds of an earnings beat under the Zacks Earnings ESP model.
How to Play MRNA Stock?
Given the sharp rally and premium valuation, the stock's risk-reward profile appears less attractive for short-term investors, who may be better off waiting for a more favorable entry point rather than chasing the recent gains.
Long-term investors may consider holding their positions to participate in Moderna’s evolving growth opportunities, particularly in oncology, while recognizing that the company's transition to sustainable growth and profitability will take time.