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Will Lower Investment Income Weigh on Aflac's Q3 Earnings?
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Key Takeaways
AFL's Q3 earnings are projected to fall 27.7% year over year, with revenues declining 11.3% to $4.2 billion.
AFL's net investment income is expected to decline 10.4%, while net earned premiums may drop 3.8% in Q3.
Aflac Japan's pre-tax adjusted earnings may fall 36.9%, while the U.S. unit faces an 11.3% decline.
Insurance provider Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 4, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.80 per share on revenues of $4.2 billion.
The third-quarter earnings estimate witnessed one upward revision and two movements in the opposite direction over the past 30 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 27.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decrease of 11.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aflac’s revenues is pegged at $16.9 billion, implying a fall of 8.4% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $7.04, implying a 6% year-over-year decline.
Aflac missed earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and beat once, with the average surprise being 6.6%. This is depicted in the figure below.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.
AFL has an Earnings ESP of -1.49% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
What’s Shaping Aflac’s Q3 Results?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter total net earned premiums indicates a 3.8% year-over-year decline. The consensus mark signals 1.2% growth in adjusted revenues in the Aflac U.S. unit; the same for the Aflac Japan unit suggests a 7.8% decline from the year-ago quarter.
Also, the consensus mark for total net investment income predicts a 10.4% decline from the year-ago period.
The total benefit-to-premium ratio in Aflac U.S. is pegged at 49.40, up from 45.60 a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pre-tax adjusted earnings from Aflac U.S. indicates an 11.3% year-over-year decline.
Meanwhile, the total benefit-to-premium ratio for Aflac Japan stands at 62.56, up from 27.80 in the year-ago period. Aflac Japan is likely to have witnessed a 36.9% decline in pre-tax adjusted earnings.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Aflac, here are some companies from the broader Finance space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Skyward Specialty Insurance Group’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $1.22 per share, indicating 16.2% year-over-year growth. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $507.3 million. SKWD beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with the average surprise being 19.4%.
Lincoln National Corporation (LNC - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.31% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lincoln National’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $1.96 per share. It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with the average surprise being 10.9%. The consensus estimate for LNC’s revenues is pegged at $5 billion, indicating 4.9% year-over-year growth.
Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.29% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Palomar Holdings’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $2.60 per share, indicating 29.4% year-over-year growth. It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with the average surprise being 13%. The consensus estimate for PLMR’s revenues is pegged at $373.3 million.
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Will Lower Investment Income Weigh on Aflac's Q3 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Insurance provider Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 4, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.80 per share on revenues of $4.2 billion.
The third-quarter earnings estimate witnessed one upward revision and two movements in the opposite direction over the past 30 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 27.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decrease of 11.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aflac’s revenues is pegged at $16.9 billion, implying a fall of 8.4% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $7.04, implying a 6% year-over-year decline.
Aflac missed earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and beat once, with the average surprise being 6.6%. This is depicted in the figure below.
Aflac Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise
Aflac Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Aflac Incorporated Quote
Q3 Earnings Whispers for Aflac
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.
AFL has an Earnings ESP of -1.49% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
What’s Shaping Aflac’s Q3 Results?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter total net earned premiums indicates a 3.8% year-over-year decline. The consensus mark signals 1.2% growth in adjusted revenues in the Aflac U.S. unit; the same for the Aflac Japan unit suggests a 7.8% decline from the year-ago quarter.
Also, the consensus mark for total net investment income predicts a 10.4% decline from the year-ago period.
The total benefit-to-premium ratio in Aflac U.S. is pegged at 49.40, up from 45.60 a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pre-tax adjusted earnings from Aflac U.S. indicates an 11.3% year-over-year decline.
Meanwhile, the total benefit-to-premium ratio for Aflac Japan stands at 62.56, up from 27.80 in the year-ago period. Aflac Japan is likely to have witnessed a 36.9% decline in pre-tax adjusted earnings.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Aflac, here are some companies from the broader Finance space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.55% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Skyward Specialty Insurance Group’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $1.22 per share, indicating 16.2% year-over-year growth. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $507.3 million. SKWD beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with the average surprise being 19.4%.
Lincoln National Corporation (LNC - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.31% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lincoln National’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $1.96 per share. It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with the average surprise being 10.9%. The consensus estimate for LNC’s revenues is pegged at $5 billion, indicating 4.9% year-over-year growth.
Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.29% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Palomar Holdings’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $2.60 per share, indicating 29.4% year-over-year growth. It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with the average surprise being 13%. The consensus estimate for PLMR’s revenues is pegged at $373.3 million.