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MTSI Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • MTSI's Q4 earnings are projected to surge 112.8%, with revenues expected to jump 60.9% year over year.
  • MACOM Technology's data center and Industrial & Defense businesses are expected to drive strong Q4 growth.
  • MTSI expects a Q4 adjusted gross margin of 60-61%, suggesting a further sequential improvement.

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results before the market opens on Nov. 5.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MACOM Technology’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at approximately $420.2 million, suggesting a 60.9% jump from the year-ago quarter’s sales of $261.2 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pinned at $2.00 per share, indicating a 112.8% year-over-year increase. The consensus estimate for the bottom line has remained unchanged over the past 60 days.

MACOM Technology’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 2.62%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for the upcoming quarterly results.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced MTSI’s Q4 Performance

MACOM Technology’s fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from strong growth across the data center business. On the last earnings call, management projected nearly 35% sequential growth in this segment. Rising deployments of 800G and 1.6T optical connectivity products, strong demand for photodetectors and increasing production of pluggable optical modules are anticipated to have aided the segment’s growth in the to-be-reported quarter. The company also raised its fiscal 2026 data center growth outlook from more than 60% to nearly 70%, reflecting strong customer demand.

Industrial & Defense (I&D) is likely to have remained another bright spot. MACOM Technology’s revenues from this segment reached record levels in the previous quarter. The business segment is benefiting from healthy defense spending, growing radar and electronic warfare programs, and increasing demand from the company's top defense customers. Management expected this business to post approximately 20% sequential growth in the fourth quarter, supported by a healthy pipeline of production programs and modernization projects.

Telecom may also have contributed, although at a slower pace. Management had guided for low single-digit sequential revenue growth for the business unit. Improving cable infrastructure demand and ongoing activity in satellite communication programs are expected to have aided the segment’s growth in the fourth quarter. While major LEO production ramp-ups are expected to contribute more meaningfully in fiscal 2027, current low-rate production programs are likely to have provided incremental revenues during the to-be-reported quarter.

Operational execution is also expected to have been a tailwind in the fourth quarter. Higher factory utilization, improving manufacturing yields and expanding production capacity are expected to have supported another quarter of gross margin expansion. Management had guided for an adjusted gross margin of 60-61% for the fourth quarter, suggesting further sequential improvement from 59.7% reported in the third quarter.

Q4 Earnings Whispers for MACOM Technology

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for MTSI this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

Though MACOM Technology currently sports a Zacks Rank #1, it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few companies worth considering in the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, as our model indicates that these possess the right combination of factors to exceed earnings expectations in their upcoming releases:

Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.31% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. Microchip is set to report second-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Nov. 5. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Microchip’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 94 cents per share, up by a penny over the past 30 days. The consensus mark for earnings indicates a year-over-year increase of 168.6%.

Qnity Electronics, Inc. (Q - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.85% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. Qnity Electronics is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 4.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Qnity Electronics’ third-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.18 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days. The consensus mark for earnings depicts a year-over-year increase of 16.8%.

QuinStreet, Inc. (QNST - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.56% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. QuinStreet is slated to report first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Nov. 4.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for QuinStreet’s fiscal first-quarter earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days. The consensus mark for earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 77.3.% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

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