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ALL, MET, AFL or PRI: Which Insurer Has the Edge for a Q3 Beat?
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Key Takeaways
ALL, MET and PRI show Q3 Earnings beat potential, while AFL's weaker profits cloud a beat.
Allstate's premiums earned will likely grow 5.6%, though its EPS is projected to decline year over year.
MetLife's EPS is projected to rise 15.8%, versus a 27.7% drop for Aflac and a 1% gain for Primerica.
Third-quarter 2026 earnings are rolling in, and insurers are moving into focus. Major players like Marsh, Aon and The Hartford have already reported solid year-over-year growth, offering an early industry read. Next in line are The Allstate Corporation (ALL - Free Report) , MetLife, Inc. (MET - Free Report) , Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) and Primerica, Inc. (PRI - Free Report) , all due to report on Nov. 4. Their results will test whether the sector's early momentum extends across the insurance market.
Insurance sits within the Finance sector, one of 16 broad sectors in the Zacks Industry classification. The sector's earnings and revenues are each expected to rise 6.2% from a year earlier, according to our latest Earnings Preview. Against that backdrop, pricing, claims, investment returns and costs are likely to separate the stronger reports from the weaker ones.
The Insurance Industry Setup Ahead of Q3 Reports
The industry entered the quarter with support from premium growth, careful underwriting and tighter control over expenses. But pricing has become less favorable in parts of the market. Marsh’s Global Insurance Market Index showed a 5% decline in global commercial insurance rates, the ninth straight quarterly drop, as competition increased and underwriting capacity remained plentiful. U.S. casualty rates moved in the opposite direction, rising 6% amid persistent litigation, large settlements and elevated claims severity. That split could produce different results across insurers.
Insurers are also working to keep existing customers while making everyday interactions easier. Digital tools can speed up claims handling and give policyholders clearer updates. Increasing investments in InsurTech, particularly artificial intelligence, predictive analytics and digital automation, are expected to have supported operational efficiency and streamlined underwriting and claims-processing activities. However, technology modernization and implementation costs may have exerted pressure on near-term operating margins.
A relatively benign catastrophe environment is expected to have supported insurers' third-quarter earnings. According to Gallagher Re’s third-quarter 2026 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, global insured catastrophe losses totaled $92 billion in the first nine months of 2026, 29% below the 10-year average and the lowest comparable total since 2019. The third quarter marked the sixth consecutive quarter without a single natural catastrophe generating more than $10 billion in insured losses, supporting industry underwriting profitability and capital strength.
Investment results may be less consistent. Higher reinvestment yields and larger portfolios could lift income for some insurers, while softer returns on alternative assets, lower floating-rate income and portfolio changes may weigh on others. These differences are especially important for life insurers, where returns on invested premiums help support profitability.
Life insurance demand remained healthy, helped by interest in protection and retirement products. Favorable mortality experience may have provided another lift. Still, benefit payments, operating costs, investment volatility and periodic updates to actuarial assumptions could offset part of that strength.
For Allstate, catastrophe losses and auto underwriting will be closely watched. For MetLife, Aflac and Primerica, investors are likely to focus more on policy sales, benefits, investment income and expenses.
What’s in Store for ALL, MET, AFL & PRI on Nov. 4?
Our proprietary model suggests that a company needs to have the right combination of two key elements — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Allstate is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings after the closing bell. Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for ALL this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +5.25% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned suggests 5.6% year-over-year growth, while net investment income is projected to rise around 2%. Adjusted net income from the Protection Services business is expected to increase 29%. However, our model projects more than 7% growth in operating costs and expenses. Property-Liability underwriting income is expected to decline 55.7%, with the combined ratio deteriorating to 91.4% from 80.1% a year ago, indicating pressure on underwriting profitability.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALL's third-quarter earnings is pegged at $7.03 per share, implying a 37.1% year-over-year decline, while revenues are estimated at $17.84 billion, suggesting 4.9% growth. The EPS estimate has moved 5.6% higher over the past 30 days. Allstate surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters with an average surprise of 45.3%.
MetLife is set to report third-quarter earnings after the market closes. Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for MET this time, as the stock currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.97% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates 14.7% growth in premiums, supported by strength across several business segments. Adjusted revenues from Retirement & Income Solutions and Group Benefits are projected to increase 36.2% and 4.7%, respectively. Adjusted earnings from these businesses are expected to grow 8.6% and 11.3%. However, a projected 3.3% decline in net investment income and a 5.2% drop in adjusted earnings from Asia may have partially offset the positives.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MET's third-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.71 per share, implying 15.8% year-over-year growth. Revenues are estimated at $20.11 billion, suggesting an increase of 12.4%. The EPS estimate has witnessed seven upward revisions and one downward revision over the past 60 days. MetLife surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.7%.
Aflac is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings after market close. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AFL this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of -1.49% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests a 3.8% year-over-year decline in total net earned premiums and a 10.4% drop in net investment income. Adjusted revenues from Aflac U.S. are expected to grow 1.2%, while those from Aflac Japan are projected to decline 7.8%. Higher benefit-to-premium ratios are also likely to have weighed on profitability. Consequently, pre-tax adjusted earnings from the U.S. and Japan businesses are expected to decline 11.3% and 36.9%, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AFL's third-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.80 per share, implying a 27.7% year-over-year decline. Revenues are estimated at $4.2 billion, suggesting a contraction of 11.3%. The EPS estimate has witnessed one upward revision and two downward movements over the past 30 days. Aflac surpassed earnings estimates once in the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, with an average surprise of negative 6.7%.
Primerica is set to report third-quarter earnings after the closing bell. Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for PRI this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +0.35% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The consensus estimate for adjusted operating revenues from Term Life, as well as Investment and Savings Products, signals 3.3% and 14.3% year-over-year increases, respectively. While adjusted pre-tax income from Term Life Insurance is likely to have declined 14%, the same from Investment and Savings Products is expected to have jumped 13%. Also, the projection for net investment income suggests 5.8% growth from a year ago.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PRI's third-quarter earnings is pegged at $6.39 per share, implying 1% year-over-year growth. Revenues are estimated at $900.94 million, suggesting an increase of 7.4%. The EPS estimate has moved 0.3% higher over the past 30 days. Primerica surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 9.8%.
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ALL, MET, AFL or PRI: Which Insurer Has the Edge for a Q3 Beat?
Key Takeaways
Third-quarter 2026 earnings are rolling in, and insurers are moving into focus. Major players like Marsh, Aon and The Hartford have already reported solid year-over-year growth, offering an early industry read. Next in line are The Allstate Corporation (ALL - Free Report) , MetLife, Inc. (MET - Free Report) , Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) and Primerica, Inc. (PRI - Free Report) , all due to report on Nov. 4. Their results will test whether the sector's early momentum extends across the insurance market.
Insurance sits within the Finance sector, one of 16 broad sectors in the Zacks Industry classification. The sector's earnings and revenues are each expected to rise 6.2% from a year earlier, according to our latest Earnings Preview. Against that backdrop, pricing, claims, investment returns and costs are likely to separate the stronger reports from the weaker ones.
The Insurance Industry Setup Ahead of Q3 Reports
The industry entered the quarter with support from premium growth, careful underwriting and tighter control over expenses. But pricing has become less favorable in parts of the market. Marsh’s Global Insurance Market Index showed a 5% decline in global commercial insurance rates, the ninth straight quarterly drop, as competition increased and underwriting capacity remained plentiful. U.S. casualty rates moved in the opposite direction, rising 6% amid persistent litigation, large settlements and elevated claims severity. That split could produce different results across insurers.
Insurers are also working to keep existing customers while making everyday interactions easier. Digital tools can speed up claims handling and give policyholders clearer updates. Increasing investments in InsurTech, particularly artificial intelligence, predictive analytics and digital automation, are expected to have supported operational efficiency and streamlined underwriting and claims-processing activities. However, technology modernization and implementation costs may have exerted pressure on near-term operating margins.
A relatively benign catastrophe environment is expected to have supported insurers' third-quarter earnings. According to Gallagher Re’s third-quarter 2026 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, global insured catastrophe losses totaled $92 billion in the first nine months of 2026, 29% below the 10-year average and the lowest comparable total since 2019. The third quarter marked the sixth consecutive quarter without a single natural catastrophe generating more than $10 billion in insured losses, supporting industry underwriting profitability and capital strength.
Investment results may be less consistent. Higher reinvestment yields and larger portfolios could lift income for some insurers, while softer returns on alternative assets, lower floating-rate income and portfolio changes may weigh on others. These differences are especially important for life insurers, where returns on invested premiums help support profitability.
Life insurance demand remained healthy, helped by interest in protection and retirement products. Favorable mortality experience may have provided another lift. Still, benefit payments, operating costs, investment volatility and periodic updates to actuarial assumptions could offset part of that strength.
For Allstate, catastrophe losses and auto underwriting will be closely watched. For MetLife, Aflac and Primerica, investors are likely to focus more on policy sales, benefits, investment income and expenses.
What’s in Store for ALL, MET, AFL & PRI on Nov. 4?
Our proprietary model suggests that a company needs to have the right combination of two key elements — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Allstate is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings after the closing bell. Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for ALL this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +5.25% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned suggests 5.6% year-over-year growth, while net investment income is projected to rise around 2%. Adjusted net income from the Protection Services business is expected to increase 29%. However, our model projects more than 7% growth in operating costs and expenses. Property-Liability underwriting income is expected to decline 55.7%, with the combined ratio deteriorating to 91.4% from 80.1% a year ago, indicating pressure on underwriting profitability.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALL's third-quarter earnings is pegged at $7.03 per share, implying a 37.1% year-over-year decline, while revenues are estimated at $17.84 billion, suggesting 4.9% growth. The EPS estimate has moved 5.6% higher over the past 30 days. Allstate surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters with an average surprise of 45.3%.
Allstate Price and EPS Surprise
The Allstate Corporation price-eps-surprise | The Allstate Corporation Quote
MetLife is set to report third-quarter earnings after the market closes. Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for MET this time, as the stock currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.97% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates 14.7% growth in premiums, supported by strength across several business segments. Adjusted revenues from Retirement & Income Solutions and Group Benefits are projected to increase 36.2% and 4.7%, respectively. Adjusted earnings from these businesses are expected to grow 8.6% and 11.3%. However, a projected 3.3% decline in net investment income and a 5.2% drop in adjusted earnings from Asia may have partially offset the positives.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MET's third-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.71 per share, implying 15.8% year-over-year growth. Revenues are estimated at $20.11 billion, suggesting an increase of 12.4%. The EPS estimate has witnessed seven upward revisions and one downward revision over the past 60 days. MetLife surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.7%.
MetLife Price and EPS Surprise
MetLife, Inc. price-eps-surprise | MetLife, Inc. Quote
Aflac is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings after market close. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AFL this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of -1.49% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests a 3.8% year-over-year decline in total net earned premiums and a 10.4% drop in net investment income. Adjusted revenues from Aflac U.S. are expected to grow 1.2%, while those from Aflac Japan are projected to decline 7.8%. Higher benefit-to-premium ratios are also likely to have weighed on profitability. Consequently, pre-tax adjusted earnings from the U.S. and Japan businesses are expected to decline 11.3% and 36.9%, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AFL's third-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.80 per share, implying a 27.7% year-over-year decline. Revenues are estimated at $4.2 billion, suggesting a contraction of 11.3%. The EPS estimate has witnessed one upward revision and two downward movements over the past 30 days. Aflac surpassed earnings estimates once in the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, with an average surprise of negative 6.7%.
Aflac Price and EPS Surprise
Aflac Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Aflac Incorporated Quote
Primerica is set to report third-quarter earnings after the closing bell. Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for PRI this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +0.35% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The consensus estimate for adjusted operating revenues from Term Life, as well as Investment and Savings Products, signals 3.3% and 14.3% year-over-year increases, respectively. While adjusted pre-tax income from Term Life Insurance is likely to have declined 14%, the same from Investment and Savings Products is expected to have jumped 13%. Also, the projection for net investment income suggests 5.8% growth from a year ago.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PRI's third-quarter earnings is pegged at $6.39 per share, implying 1% year-over-year growth. Revenues are estimated at $900.94 million, suggesting an increase of 7.4%. The EPS estimate has moved 0.3% higher over the past 30 days. Primerica surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 9.8%.
Primerica Price and EPS Surprise
Primerica, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Primerica, Inc. Quote