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Should You Buy, Sell or Hold ASTS Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings?
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Key Takeaways
AST SpaceMobile reports Q3 2026 earnings on Nov. 9, with revenues estimated at $44.4 million
New BlueBird launches, expanding MNO partnerships and government contracts, could support Q3 growth.
High capital spending, launch risks and competition challenge ASTS despite its $1.3 billion backlog.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Nov. 9, 2026, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues and earnings is pegged at $44.4 million and a loss of 41 cents per share, respectively. Over the past 60 days, the earnings estimate for ASTS for fiscal 2026 has decreased by 5.73%, and for fiscal 2026, it has declined by 26%.
ASTS Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Surprise History
The company delivered a negative four-quarter earnings surprise of 109.64%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 57.14%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ASTS this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
During the quarter, AST SpaceMobile successfully launched BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 aboard a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral, marking another step in its constellation expansion. The satellites are designed to deliver nearly double the peak data speeds of the initial Block 1 satellites, strengthening direct-to-device connectivity and network capacity. BlueBirds 14 through 16 are undergoing final testing, while BlueBirds 17 through 46 are in various stages of production and assembly.
The company expanded network integration testing across European countries with operators, including Vodafone, Orange, Telefónica and Deutsche Telekom. The initiative aims to accelerate space-based cellular broadband, extend coverage beyond terrestrial networks and enhance network resilience.
ASTS is expected to benefit from increasing contributions from U.S. government contracts and commercial gateway equipment deliveries in the third quarter of 2026. The company expects this will support its growth trajectory, with additional contributions potentially coming from the initial commercialization of its SpaceMobile service. These factors are expected to have a favorable impact on third-quarter earnings.
However, the company faces competition from other established satcom players. Launch dependency risks and execution challenges remain concerns.
Price Performance
Over the past year, ASTS stock has declined 46.9% against the industry’s growth of 1.5%. However, the company has underperformed peers like SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) and Globalstar (GSAT - Free Report) has surged 78.6%. SPCX has gained 4.7% since its IPO.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Key Valuation Metric of ASTS
From a valuation standpoint, ASTS is currently trading at a premium compared to the industry. Going by the price/sales ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 27.98 forward sales, higher than 4.62 for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Consideration
AST SpaceMobile continues to make progress in developing its direct-to-device cellular broadband network. Its differentiated satellite architecture enables connectivity directly to standard smartphones without requiring specialized user equipment. The company has also strengthened its technology capabilities through its proprietary ASIC, designed to support up to 10 GHz of processing bandwidth per satellite.
The company also benefits from a growing commercial and government partner ecosystem. Its agreements with more than 60 MNOs, covering over 3 billion subscribers, provide access to established telecom networks and potential distribution channels. Additionally, the approximately $1.3 billion revenue backlog, comprising contracted partner revenue and U.S. government awards, offers visibility into future business opportunities.
However, the company's aggressive expansion strategy requires substantial capital expenditure. AST SpaceMobile reported capital expenditures of approximately $610 million in the second quarter and expects spending of $350-$425 million in the third quarter, primarily driven by satellite manufacturing and launch-related payments.
The company recorded a $125.9 million loss on involuntary conversion a few months earlier following the unsuccessful deployment of BlueBird 7 into its intended orbit. This highlights the financial exposure associated with launch-related operational risks.
Competition also remains a significant concern. AST SpaceMobile faces growing pressure from established satellite communication providers and emerging direct-to-device platforms, particularly SpaceX's Starlink and Globalstar.
End Note
AST SpaceMobile is expected to benefit from increasing contributions from gateway equipment deliveries and U.S. government contracts in the third quarter. Its expanding satellite constellation, growing MNO partnerships and improving technology capabilities provide a strong foundation for long-term commercialization.
However, significant execution challenges remain as ASTS transitions from infrastructure development toward commercial operations. High capital requirements, launch-related uncertainties and competitive pressure weigh on its investment outlook. Long-term investors should hold onto the stock, but new investors should wait for a better entry point.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Should You Buy, Sell or Hold ASTS Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Nov. 9, 2026, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues and earnings is pegged at $44.4 million and a loss of 41 cents per share, respectively. Over the past 60 days, the earnings estimate for ASTS for fiscal 2026 has decreased by 5.73%, and for fiscal 2026, it has declined by 26%.
ASTS Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Surprise History
The company delivered a negative four-quarter earnings surprise of 109.64%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 57.14%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ASTS this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
ASTS currently has an ESP of -15.86% with a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factor Shaping Upcoming Results
During the quarter, AST SpaceMobile successfully launched BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 aboard a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral, marking another step in its constellation expansion. The satellites are designed to deliver nearly double the peak data speeds of the initial Block 1 satellites, strengthening direct-to-device connectivity and network capacity. BlueBirds 14 through 16 are undergoing final testing, while BlueBirds 17 through 46 are in various stages of production and assembly.
The company expanded network integration testing across European countries with operators, including Vodafone, Orange, Telefónica and Deutsche Telekom. The initiative aims to accelerate space-based cellular broadband, extend coverage beyond terrestrial networks and enhance network resilience.
ASTS is expected to benefit from increasing contributions from U.S. government contracts and commercial gateway equipment deliveries in the third quarter of 2026. The company expects this will support its growth trajectory, with additional contributions potentially coming from the initial commercialization of its SpaceMobile service. These factors are expected to have a favorable impact on third-quarter earnings.
However, the company faces competition from other established satcom players. Launch dependency risks and execution challenges remain concerns.
Price Performance
Over the past year, ASTS stock has declined 46.9% against the industry’s growth of 1.5%. However, the company has underperformed peers like SpaceX (SPCX - Free Report) and Globalstar (GSAT - Free Report) has surged 78.6%. SPCX has gained 4.7% since its IPO.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Key Valuation Metric of ASTS
From a valuation standpoint, ASTS is currently trading at a premium compared to the industry. Going by the price/sales ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 27.98 forward sales, higher than 4.62 for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Consideration
AST SpaceMobile continues to make progress in developing its direct-to-device cellular broadband network. Its differentiated satellite architecture enables connectivity directly to standard smartphones without requiring specialized user equipment. The company has also strengthened its technology capabilities through its proprietary ASIC, designed to support up to 10 GHz of processing bandwidth per satellite.
The company also benefits from a growing commercial and government partner ecosystem. Its agreements with more than 60 MNOs, covering over 3 billion subscribers, provide access to established telecom networks and potential distribution channels. Additionally, the approximately $1.3 billion revenue backlog, comprising contracted partner revenue and U.S. government awards, offers visibility into future business opportunities.
However, the company's aggressive expansion strategy requires substantial capital expenditure. AST SpaceMobile reported capital expenditures of approximately $610 million in the second quarter and expects spending of $350-$425 million in the third quarter, primarily driven by satellite manufacturing and launch-related payments.
The company recorded a $125.9 million loss on involuntary conversion a few months earlier following the unsuccessful deployment of BlueBird 7 into its intended orbit. This highlights the financial exposure associated with launch-related operational risks.
Competition also remains a significant concern. AST SpaceMobile faces growing pressure from established satellite communication providers and emerging direct-to-device platforms, particularly SpaceX's Starlink and Globalstar.
End Note
AST SpaceMobile is expected to benefit from increasing contributions from gateway equipment deliveries and U.S. government contracts in the third quarter. Its expanding satellite constellation, growing MNO partnerships and improving technology capabilities provide a strong foundation for long-term commercialization.
However, significant execution challenges remain as ASTS transitions from infrastructure development toward commercial operations. High capital requirements, launch-related uncertainties and competitive pressure weigh on its investment outlook. Long-term investors should hold onto the stock, but new investors should wait for a better entry point.