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CF Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates as Higher Costs Offset Sales Gains
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Key Takeaways
CF's Q3 earnings rose 31.1% to $2.87 per share but missed estimates by 2% amid elevated costs.
CF's net sales grew 12.1% to $1.86 billion, driven by higher volumes and favorable pricing in select segments.
CF Industries targets 9.5 million tons of ammonia production in 2026 as the Yazoo City outage persists.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.(CF - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 earnings of $2.87 per share, rising 31.1% from $2.19 in the year-ago quarter. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.93 by 2%.
Net sales increased 12.1% year over year to $1.86 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $1.76 billion by 5.6%. Higher sales volumes and favorable pricing across certain segments supported growth, while elevated purchased product, freight and maintenance costs weighed on results. Total sales volume rose 6.5% to 4.8 million tons.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Ammonia segment net sales increased 16.8% year over year to $534 million. Adjusted gross margin rose to $253 million from $172 million. The average selling price climbed to $532 per ton from $418, more than offsetting a decline in sales volume to 1 million tons from 1.09 million tons.
Granular Urea segment net sales increased 7.8% to $456 million. Adjusted gross margin declined to $264 million from $271 million. Sales volume rose to 1.08 million tons from 939,000 tons, while the average selling price fell to $423 per ton from $450. Higher costs pressured profitability despite improved volumes.
UAN segment net sales climbed 23.6% year over year to $639 million. Adjusted gross margin increased to $347 million from $289 million. Sales volume rose to 1.99 million tons from 1.56 million tons, offsetting a decline in the average selling price to $322 per ton from $331.
AN segment net sales decreased 45.1% to $67 million. Adjusted gross margin plunged to $5 million from $40 million. Sales volume declined sharply to 127,000 tons from 384,000 tons, reflecting lost production at the Yazoo City Complex. Higher selling prices partly offset the volume decline.
The Other segment, which includes diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor and nitric acid, recorded a 17.1% increase in net sales to $164 million. Adjusted gross margin rose to $78 million from $67 million, supported by higher volumes and improved pricing.
CF's Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
As of Sept. 30, 2026, CF Industries had cash and cash equivalents of $2.82 billion, including $496 million held by the Blue Point One joint venture. Long-term debt stood at $3.22 billion.
Net cash provided by operating activities totaled $1.17 billion during the quarter, compared with $1.06 billion a year earlier. Capital expenditures amounted to $282 million, down from $347 million. CF repurchased 3 million shares for $367 million, leaving approximately $1.11 billion under its existing authorization.
CF Industries' Outlook
CF Industries expects full-year 2026 gross ammonia production of approximately 9.5 million tons, reflecting the continued Yazoo City outage. Operations at the complex are expected to resume during the first half of 2027.
Management projects consolidated capital expenditures of approximately $1.3 billion for 2026, including spending related to the Blue Point One joint venture. Construction of the low-carbon ammonia facility commenced in August 2026, with production expected to begin in 2029.
The company expects global nitrogen supply-demand fundamentals to remain constructive into 2027. Geopolitical disruptions, constrained production in Europe and Trinidad, and low channel inventories are expected to support market conditions. Management anticipates robust nitrogen demand in the short to medium term, while limited capacity additions are expected to tighten the global market over the longer term.
CF’s Price Performance
CF shares have surged 37.1% in the past year against the 41.8% decline of the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks
CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Reliance, Inc. (RS - Free Report) , Element Solutions Inc. (ESI - Free Report) and Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM - Free Report) .
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RS’ 2026 earnings is pegged at $23.70 per share, indicating a 66.2% year-over-year surge. RS shares have gained 60.9% over the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ESI’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.85 per share, indicating a year-over-year rise of 24.2%. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 6%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASM’s current fiscal-year earnings is pinned at 28 cents per share. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 75%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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CF Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates as Higher Costs Offset Sales Gains
Key Takeaways
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.(CF - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 earnings of $2.87 per share, rising 31.1% from $2.19 in the year-ago quarter. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.93 by 2%.
Net sales increased 12.1% year over year to $1.86 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $1.76 billion by 5.6%. Higher sales volumes and favorable pricing across certain segments supported growth, while elevated purchased product, freight and maintenance costs weighed on results. Total sales volume rose 6.5% to 4.8 million tons.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Quote
CF's Segment Results
Ammonia segment net sales increased 16.8% year over year to $534 million. Adjusted gross margin rose to $253 million from $172 million. The average selling price climbed to $532 per ton from $418, more than offsetting a decline in sales volume to 1 million tons from 1.09 million tons.
Granular Urea segment net sales increased 7.8% to $456 million. Adjusted gross margin declined to $264 million from $271 million. Sales volume rose to 1.08 million tons from 939,000 tons, while the average selling price fell to $423 per ton from $450. Higher costs pressured profitability despite improved volumes.
UAN segment net sales climbed 23.6% year over year to $639 million. Adjusted gross margin increased to $347 million from $289 million. Sales volume rose to 1.99 million tons from 1.56 million tons, offsetting a decline in the average selling price to $322 per ton from $331.
AN segment net sales decreased 45.1% to $67 million. Adjusted gross margin plunged to $5 million from $40 million. Sales volume declined sharply to 127,000 tons from 384,000 tons, reflecting lost production at the Yazoo City Complex. Higher selling prices partly offset the volume decline.
The Other segment, which includes diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor and nitric acid, recorded a 17.1% increase in net sales to $164 million. Adjusted gross margin rose to $78 million from $67 million, supported by higher volumes and improved pricing.
CF's Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
As of Sept. 30, 2026, CF Industries had cash and cash equivalents of $2.82 billion, including $496 million held by the Blue Point One joint venture. Long-term debt stood at $3.22 billion.
Net cash provided by operating activities totaled $1.17 billion during the quarter, compared with $1.06 billion a year earlier. Capital expenditures amounted to $282 million, down from $347 million. CF repurchased 3 million shares for $367 million, leaving approximately $1.11 billion under its existing authorization.
CF Industries' Outlook
CF Industries expects full-year 2026 gross ammonia production of approximately 9.5 million tons, reflecting the continued Yazoo City outage. Operations at the complex are expected to resume during the first half of 2027.
Management projects consolidated capital expenditures of approximately $1.3 billion for 2026, including spending related to the Blue Point One joint venture. Construction of the low-carbon ammonia facility commenced in August 2026, with production expected to begin in 2029.
The company expects global nitrogen supply-demand fundamentals to remain constructive into 2027. Geopolitical disruptions, constrained production in Europe and Trinidad, and low channel inventories are expected to support market conditions. Management anticipates robust nitrogen demand in the short to medium term, while limited capacity additions are expected to tighten the global market over the longer term.
CF’s Price Performance
CF shares have surged 37.1% in the past year against the 41.8% decline of the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks
CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Reliance, Inc. (RS - Free Report) , Element Solutions Inc. (ESI - Free Report) and Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM - Free Report) .
RS and ESI currently sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each, while ASM carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RS’ 2026 earnings is pegged at $23.70 per share, indicating a 66.2% year-over-year surge. RS shares have gained 60.9% over the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ESI’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.85 per share, indicating a year-over-year rise of 24.2%. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 6%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASM’s current fiscal-year earnings is pinned at 28 cents per share. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 75%.