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JPM Expects M&A Slowdown in 2027: Can Private Equity Exits Offset?
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Key Takeaways
JPMorgan expects fewer large M&A deals in 2027, potentially challenging its investment banking fee growth.
JPM could benefit from rising private equity exits as refinancing deadlines and liquidity pressures mount.
JPM could benefit from continuation funds and secondary deals as sponsors seek alternatives to asset sales.
JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) expects global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity to moderate in 2027 following a robust performance earlier this year. In a Nov. 6 interview with Fortune, Charlie Bouckaert, the bank's global head of M&A, indicated that fewer large transactions could materialize next year, although bigger deals are likely to continue dominating activity.
The slowdown is likely to challenge JPMorgan's investment banking (IB) fee growth. In third-quarter 2026, IB fees increased 14% year over year to $3 billion, driven by a 32% jump in advisory fees to $1.2 billion. Reduced deal volumes could make sustaining this momentum difficult.
Despite the softer M&A outlook, increasing pressure on private equity firms to monetize investments could create opportunities. Bouckaert expects exits to accelerate in the second half of 2027 as aging portfolios, approaching refinancing deadlines and investor liquidity demands prompt sponsors to pursue transactions.
Per PitchBook data cited by Fortune, private equity firms held 33,853 unsold investments as of Sept. 30, 2026, indicating a substantial backlog of potential transactions. Moreover, sponsors could increasingly explore continuation funds and secondary transactions instead of outright asset sales. These alternatives may generate incremental advisory and financing mandates for JPMorgan.
While moderating M&A activity could temper JPMorgan's advisory revenue growth in 2027, rising private equity exits and alternative liquidity transactions may provide some offset. The bank's established IB franchise positions it to capture these opportunities. However, the timing and execution of sponsor exits, alongside uncertain transaction volumes, will determine whether incremental fees can meaningfully cushion the slowdown.
How Will the Above Scenario Play Out for JPMorgan’s Peers?
Two close peers of JPMorgan are Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) and Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) .
For Goldman, slower M&A activity in 2027 could constrain advisory fee growth. However, rising private equity exits, continuation funds and secondary transactions may create fresh revenue opportunities. Goldman's strong dealmaking franchise and sponsor relationships position it to benefit, potentially cushioning the impact of weaker overall transaction volumes.
For Morgan Stanley, a slowdown in M&A activity in 2027 could weigh on advisory fee growth. However, rising private equity exits and increasing adoption of continuation funds and secondary transactions could create new advisory opportunities. Morgan Stanley’s strong IB franchise and sponsor relationships position it to capture these mandates, partially offsetting weaker dealmaking activity.
JPMorgan’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
JPM’s shares have gained 11.5% over the past six months.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, JPMorgan trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 3.13X, above the industry average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan's 2026 earnings suggests a 22.7% year-over-year rise, while 2027 earnings are expected to rise 3.7%. In the past week, earnings estimates for 2026 have been revised lower to $24.95, while for 2027, estimates have remained unchanged at $25.87.
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JPM Expects M&A Slowdown in 2027: Can Private Equity Exits Offset?
Key Takeaways
JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) expects global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity to moderate in 2027 following a robust performance earlier this year. In a Nov. 6 interview with Fortune, Charlie Bouckaert, the bank's global head of M&A, indicated that fewer large transactions could materialize next year, although bigger deals are likely to continue dominating activity.
The slowdown is likely to challenge JPMorgan's investment banking (IB) fee growth. In third-quarter 2026, IB fees increased 14% year over year to $3 billion, driven by a 32% jump in advisory fees to $1.2 billion. Reduced deal volumes could make sustaining this momentum difficult.
Despite the softer M&A outlook, increasing pressure on private equity firms to monetize investments could create opportunities. Bouckaert expects exits to accelerate in the second half of 2027 as aging portfolios, approaching refinancing deadlines and investor liquidity demands prompt sponsors to pursue transactions.
Per PitchBook data cited by Fortune, private equity firms held 33,853 unsold investments as of Sept. 30, 2026, indicating a substantial backlog of potential transactions. Moreover, sponsors could increasingly explore continuation funds and secondary transactions instead of outright asset sales. These alternatives may generate incremental advisory and financing mandates for JPMorgan.
While moderating M&A activity could temper JPMorgan's advisory revenue growth in 2027, rising private equity exits and alternative liquidity transactions may provide some offset. The bank's established IB franchise positions it to capture these opportunities. However, the timing and execution of sponsor exits, alongside uncertain transaction volumes, will determine whether incremental fees can meaningfully cushion the slowdown.
How Will the Above Scenario Play Out for JPMorgan’s Peers?
Two close peers of JPMorgan are Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) and Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) .
For Goldman, slower M&A activity in 2027 could constrain advisory fee growth. However, rising private equity exits, continuation funds and secondary transactions may create fresh revenue opportunities. Goldman's strong dealmaking franchise and sponsor relationships position it to benefit, potentially cushioning the impact of weaker overall transaction volumes.
For Morgan Stanley, a slowdown in M&A activity in 2027 could weigh on advisory fee growth. However, rising private equity exits and increasing adoption of continuation funds and secondary transactions could create new advisory opportunities. Morgan Stanley’s strong IB franchise and sponsor relationships position it to capture these mandates, partially offsetting weaker dealmaking activity.
JPMorgan’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
JPM’s shares have gained 11.5% over the past six months.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, JPMorgan trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 3.13X, above the industry average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan's 2026 earnings suggests a 22.7% year-over-year rise, while 2027 earnings are expected to rise 3.7%. In the past week, earnings estimates for 2026 have been revised lower to $24.95, while for 2027, estimates have remained unchanged at $25.87.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
JPMorgan currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.