Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider BJ's Wholesale Club?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ Quick QuoteBJ - Free Report) earns a #2 (Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.25 a share, just 11 days from its upcoming earnings release on November 20, 2026.

BJ has an Earnings ESP figure of +2.54%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.25 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.22. BJ's Wholesale Club is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

BJ is just one of a large group of Consumer Staples stocks with a positive ESP figure. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM Quick QuoteADM - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

Archer Daniels Midland, which is readying to report earnings on February 2, 2027, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $1.43 a share, and ADM is 85 days out from its next earnings report.

For Archer Daniels Midland, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.29 is +10.57%.

BJ and ADM's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>