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Rigetti Pre-Q3 Earnings Analysis: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
RGTI's Q3 revenues are expected to rise 69% to $3.3 million, while the loss per share may double to 6 cents.
Growing demand for Novera quantum systems and strategic partnerships may support RGTI's long-term prospects.
High R&D costs, uncertain commercialization timelines and premium valuation raises caution on RGTI shares.
Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 10, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.30 million, while the same for loss is pinned at 6 cents per share. Although revenue estimates indicate a 69% year-over-year improvement, the loss is likely to double.
The loss per share estimate for 2026 has remained unchanged at 19 cents, while that for 2027 has narrowed 2 cents over the past 30 days.
Rigetti's third-quarter results are expected to reflect advancements in superconducting quantum computing technology, strengthening customer engagement and rising interest in on-premises quantum systems. However, the timing of system deliveries and customer acceptance could influence revenue recognition, while elevated research and development spending is likely to continue to pressure profitability.
While Rigetti’s close peer, IonQ (IONQ - Free Report) reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings last week, another peer, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS - Free Report) , is slated to announce its quarterly numbers on Nov. 10. (Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Estimate Movement
In the last reported quarter, RGTI delivered a negative earnings surprise of 66.67%. Its earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 8.33%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In the last reported quarter, IONQ delivered an earnings surprise of 502.1%, whereas QBTS delivered a negative earnings surprise of 140%.
Factors Likely to Shape Rigetti's Q3 Results
Quantum System Deployments and Customer Traction: Rigetti's third-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from continued demand for its on-premises Novera quantum processing units (QPUs). During the second-quarter earnings call, management indicated that commercial organizations, government laboratories and universities were showing increasing interest in quantum computing systems. The company also reported growing engagement through its cloud platforms, including Amazon Braket and Microsoft Azure Quantum.
Management stated that the previously announced $8.4 million order from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) remained on track for revenue recognition in the fourth quarter of 2026, following installation and performance acceptance testing. Consequently, this order is unlikely to have contributed meaningfully to third-quarter revenues.
Technology Development and Strategic Partnerships: Rigetti continues to advance its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system and chiplet-based architecture. Management indicated that improving coherence time remains essential to enhancing two-qubit gate fidelity. The company is targeting approximately 1,000 qubits, 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity and gate speeds below 40 nanoseconds over roughly three years.
The expanded collaboration with Hewlett Packard Enterprise and the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center to develop hybrid quantum-classical computing capabilities also represents an important commercialization opportunity. However, the planned system delivery is expected in 2027, limiting its immediate revenue contribution.
Additionally, Rigetti signed a letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for potential funding of up to $100 million over three years. Although the initiative has the potential to advance research and development activities, a definitive agreement had not been reached as of the latest earnings call.
Operating Expenses: Continued investments in chip design, fabrication facilities, engineering and dilution refrigeration infrastructure are likely to have kept operating expenses elevated. In the second quarter, total operating expenses reached $30.3 million compared with $20.4 million a year earlier. Sustained spending on technology development could continue to pressure profitability despite improving customer demand.
RGTI's Price Performance and Valuation
During the third quarter of 2026, RGTI shares declined 18.5%, underperforming the industry's 2.8% gain and the S&P 500's 1.6% increase. Among its close peers, IonQ declined 17.6%, while D-Wave Quantum plunged 30.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, Rigetti trades at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) of 7.30X, compared with 4.71X for the industry. The stock also trades at a premium to IonQ's 4.19X and D-Wave Quantum's 3.65X P/B multiples, based on figures as of Nov. 6, 2026. This valuation premium suggests that investors are pricing in substantial growth expectations for Rigetti, reflecting long-term growth prospects.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Per our proven model, a stock with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold), along with a positive Earnings ESP, has higher chances of beating estimates. This is not the case here, as you can see below.
Earnings ESP: RGTI has an Earnings ESP of -16.67%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Rigetti continues to make progress in superconducting quantum computing, supported by technology development, expanding customer engagement and strategic partnerships. Its substantial cash resources of $541.3 million at the end of the second quarter and debt-free balance sheet provide financial flexibility to pursue its long-term technology roadmap.
Nevertheless, uncertain commercialization timelines, elevated operating expenses, negative earnings expectations and a premium valuation warrant caution. With a Zacks Rank of 3 and negative Earnings ESP, the near-term earnings setup remains neutral. Existing shareholders may consider holding their positions while monitoring revenue conversion, system deployments, technology milestones and management's commercialization outlook. Investors considering new positions may prefer to wait for greater clarity following the third-quarter earnings release.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Rigetti Pre-Q3 Earnings Analysis: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 10, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.30 million, while the same for loss is pinned at 6 cents per share. Although revenue estimates indicate a 69% year-over-year improvement, the loss is likely to double.
The loss per share estimate for 2026 has remained unchanged at 19 cents, while that for 2027 has narrowed 2 cents over the past 30 days.
Rigetti's third-quarter results are expected to reflect advancements in superconducting quantum computing technology, strengthening customer engagement and rising interest in on-premises quantum systems. However, the timing of system deliveries and customer acceptance could influence revenue recognition, while elevated research and development spending is likely to continue to pressure profitability.
While Rigetti’s close peer, IonQ (IONQ - Free Report) reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings last week, another peer, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS - Free Report) , is slated to announce its quarterly numbers on Nov. 10. (Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Estimate Movement
In the last reported quarter, RGTI delivered a negative earnings surprise of 66.67%. Its earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 8.33%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In the last reported quarter, IONQ delivered an earnings surprise of 502.1%, whereas QBTS delivered a negative earnings surprise of 140%.
Factors Likely to Shape Rigetti's Q3 Results
Quantum System Deployments and Customer Traction: Rigetti's third-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from continued demand for its on-premises Novera quantum processing units (QPUs). During the second-quarter earnings call, management indicated that commercial organizations, government laboratories and universities were showing increasing interest in quantum computing systems. The company also reported growing engagement through its cloud platforms, including Amazon Braket and Microsoft Azure Quantum.
Management stated that the previously announced $8.4 million order from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) remained on track for revenue recognition in the fourth quarter of 2026, following installation and performance acceptance testing. Consequently, this order is unlikely to have contributed meaningfully to third-quarter revenues.
Technology Development and Strategic Partnerships: Rigetti continues to advance its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system and chiplet-based architecture. Management indicated that improving coherence time remains essential to enhancing two-qubit gate fidelity. The company is targeting approximately 1,000 qubits, 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity and gate speeds below 40 nanoseconds over roughly three years.
The expanded collaboration with Hewlett Packard Enterprise and the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center to develop hybrid quantum-classical computing capabilities also represents an important commercialization opportunity. However, the planned system delivery is expected in 2027, limiting its immediate revenue contribution.
Additionally, Rigetti signed a letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for potential funding of up to $100 million over three years. Although the initiative has the potential to advance research and development activities, a definitive agreement had not been reached as of the latest earnings call.
Operating Expenses: Continued investments in chip design, fabrication facilities, engineering and dilution refrigeration infrastructure are likely to have kept operating expenses elevated. In the second quarter, total operating expenses reached $30.3 million compared with $20.4 million a year earlier. Sustained spending on technology development could continue to pressure profitability despite improving customer demand.
RGTI's Price Performance and Valuation
During the third quarter of 2026, RGTI shares declined 18.5%, underperforming the industry's 2.8% gain and the S&P 500's 1.6% increase. Among its close peers, IonQ declined 17.6%, while D-Wave Quantum plunged 30.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, Rigetti trades at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) of 7.30X, compared with 4.71X for the industry. The stock also trades at a premium to IonQ's 4.19X and D-Wave Quantum's 3.65X P/B multiples, based on figures as of Nov. 6, 2026. This valuation premium suggests that investors are pricing in substantial growth expectations for Rigetti, reflecting long-term growth prospects.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Per our proven model, a stock with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold), along with a positive Earnings ESP, has higher chances of beating estimates. This is not the case here, as you can see below.
Earnings ESP: RGTI has an Earnings ESP of -16.67%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Rigetti Computing, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Rigetti Computing, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Rigetti Computing, Inc. Quote
How to Approach RGTI Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings?
Rigetti continues to make progress in superconducting quantum computing, supported by technology development, expanding customer engagement and strategic partnerships. Its substantial cash resources of $541.3 million at the end of the second quarter and debt-free balance sheet provide financial flexibility to pursue its long-term technology roadmap.
Nevertheless, uncertain commercialization timelines, elevated operating expenses, negative earnings expectations and a premium valuation warrant caution. With a Zacks Rank of 3 and negative Earnings ESP, the near-term earnings setup remains neutral. Existing shareholders may consider holding their positions while monitoring revenue conversion, system deployments, technology milestones and management's commercialization outlook. Investors considering new positions may prefer to wait for greater clarity following the third-quarter earnings release.