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Newmont Stock Up 26% YTD: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Newmont shares have gained 25.8% YTD, outperforming the gold mining industry and S&P 500.
Strong liquidity, higher realized gold prices and growth projects support Newmont's earnings and cash flows.
Declining gold production and rising costs could pressure profitability despite lower 2026 cost guidance.
Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) shares have gained 25.8% so far this year, helped by its forecast-topping earnings performance, driven by operational efficiency, higher realized gold prices and the strength of its asset portfolio.
NEM stock has topped the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 5.5% rise and the S&P 500’s 6.7% increase. Among its gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) have lost 2.6% and 18.9%, respectively, while Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) has gained 18.5%, over the same period.
NEM’s YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NEM stock broke above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on Nov. 5, 2026, as gold prices rebounded to reclaim the $4,000 per ounce level after the Democrats swept the U.S. midterm elections. It is also currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. Following a golden crossover on Sept. 11, 2026, the 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend.
NEM Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at NEM’s fundamentals to analyze the stock better.
Newmont Poised for Growth on Key Projects
Newmont continues to invest in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia. These projects should expand Newmont’s production capacity and extend mine life, driving revenues and profits. At Cadia, PC2-3 is on track for completion by year-end 2026, while PC1-2 cave establishment remains on schedule. The Tanami expansion is progressing, with its 1.5-kilometer shaft completed in the third quarter of 2026. Commercial production is now expected by the end of the second quarter of 2027, ahead of the prior schedule.
In October 2025, NEM achieved commercial production at Ahafo North, which followed the first gold pour in September 2025. Ahafo North is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over an estimated mine life of 13 years.
NEM has also received key regulatory approvals from the Province of British Columbia for its Red Chris Block Cave Project, marking a major milestone in the planned transformation of the Red Chris Mine from an open-pit operation to a large-scale block-cave mine. The approvals take the project closer to the final investment decision, expected in early 2027.
NEM’s Capital Allocation Backed by Solid Financial Health
Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of the third quarter, Newmont had robust liquidity of roughly $12.8 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $8.8 billion. Its net cash position was approximately $3.2 billion.
Its free cash flow climbed 22% year over year to $1.9 billion in the third quarter, led by an increase in net cash from operating activities. Net cash provided by operating activities increased 20.5% year over year to $2.8 billion.
In the first nine months of 2026, Newmont generated free cash flow of roughly $7.3 billion, matching the full-year 2025 level. With the fourth quarter expected to be its strongest production quarter of 2026, the company sees meaningful cash flow generation.
Newmont stands to benefit from higher gold prices, which should drive its profitability and cash flow generation. Although bullion prices have seen a significant downward correction from early-2026 peaks, higher realized pricing has continued to support Newmont's results. Its average realized price of gold rose approximately 22% year over year to $4,317 per ounce in the third quarter, helping generate $4 billion in adjusted EBITDA despite broadly flat sequential gold production.
Newmont returned about $1.9 billion to shareholders since its second-quarter 2026 earnings call through dividends and buybacks. It has retired more than 115 million shares, or about 10% of outstanding shares, since February 2024. The company maintains a targeted annual dividend commitment of $1.1 billion, with $2.8 billion left under its current $6 billion repurchase authorization. NEM offers a dividend yield of 0.9% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 11%.
Production Challenges, Higher Costs Ail Newmont
NEM saw lower year-over-year gold production for the third quarter. The company reported a roughly 9% year-over-year decline in attributable gold production to 1.3 million ounces. Production was impacted by lower-grade ore mining and mine sequencing across certain assets.
The company anticipates gold production at about 5.26 million ounces for 2026, indicating a year-over-year decline from 5.89 million ounces in 2025, despite projected fourth-quarter output of about 1.36 million ounces, its strongest production quarter of 2026.
Lower production is expected to lead to higher unit costs in 2026. NEM’s gold costs applicable to sales (CAS) and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) rose roughly 22% and 25% year over year, respectively, in the third quarter on a co-product basis. NEM reduced its 2026 by-product AISC guidance to $1,520 per ounce from $1,680 and lowered by-product CAS guidance to $925 per ounce. However, fourth-quarter by-product AISC is expected to rise to around $1,900 per ounce as sustaining capital spending peaks and silver production at Penasquito declines. The higher costs could undercut the profitability goals.
What Do NEM’s Earnings Estimates Indicate
Newmont’s earnings estimates for 2026 have been going up over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2026 has been revised lower over the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A Look at Newmont Stock’s Valuation
Newmont is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 13.08X, a 26.9% discount to the industry average of 17.89X. NEM is trading at a premium to Barrick and Kinross Gold and at a discount to Agnico Eagle. Newmont currently has a Value Score of C. Barrick and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of D.
NEM’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, AEM and KGC
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto NEM Shares
Newmont is well-positioned for growth, backed by strong operating performance and a robust project pipeline that is expected to expand production capacity, extend mine life and support revenue and earnings growth. Higher year-over-year realized prices should continue to boost NEM’s profitability and drive cash flow generation. However, lower production partly stemming from lower ore grades, along with elevated costs, could pressure overall performance in 2026. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Newmont Stock Up 26% YTD: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) shares have gained 25.8% so far this year, helped by its forecast-topping earnings performance, driven by operational efficiency, higher realized gold prices and the strength of its asset portfolio.
NEM stock has topped the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 5.5% rise and the S&P 500’s 6.7% increase. Among its gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) have lost 2.6% and 18.9%, respectively, while Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) has gained 18.5%, over the same period.
NEM’s YTD Price Performance
NEM stock broke above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on Nov. 5, 2026, as gold prices rebounded to reclaim the $4,000 per ounce level after the Democrats swept the U.S. midterm elections. It is also currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. Following a golden crossover on Sept. 11, 2026, the 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend.
NEM Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Let’s take a look at NEM’s fundamentals to analyze the stock better.
Newmont Poised for Growth on Key Projects
Newmont continues to invest in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia. These projects should expand Newmont’s production capacity and extend mine life, driving revenues and profits. At Cadia, PC2-3 is on track for completion by year-end 2026, while PC1-2 cave establishment remains on schedule. The Tanami expansion is progressing, with its 1.5-kilometer shaft completed in the third quarter of 2026. Commercial production is now expected by the end of the second quarter of 2027, ahead of the prior schedule.
In October 2025, NEM achieved commercial production at Ahafo North, which followed the first gold pour in September 2025. Ahafo North is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over an estimated mine life of 13 years.
NEM has also received key regulatory approvals from the Province of British Columbia for its Red Chris Block Cave Project, marking a major milestone in the planned transformation of the Red Chris Mine from an open-pit operation to a large-scale block-cave mine. The approvals take the project closer to the final investment decision, expected in early 2027.
NEM’s Capital Allocation Backed by Solid Financial Health
Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of the third quarter, Newmont had robust liquidity of roughly $12.8 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $8.8 billion. Its net cash position was approximately $3.2 billion.
Its free cash flow climbed 22% year over year to $1.9 billion in the third quarter, led by an increase in net cash from operating activities. Net cash provided by operating activities increased 20.5% year over year to $2.8 billion.
In the first nine months of 2026, Newmont generated free cash flow of roughly $7.3 billion, matching the full-year 2025 level. With the fourth quarter expected to be its strongest production quarter of 2026, the company sees meaningful cash flow generation.
Newmont stands to benefit from higher gold prices, which should drive its profitability and cash flow generation. Although bullion prices have seen a significant downward correction from early-2026 peaks, higher realized pricing has continued to support Newmont's results. Its average realized price of gold rose approximately 22% year over year to $4,317 per ounce in the third quarter, helping generate $4 billion in adjusted EBITDA despite broadly flat sequential gold production.
Newmont returned about $1.9 billion to shareholders since its second-quarter 2026 earnings call through dividends and buybacks. It has retired more than 115 million shares, or about 10% of outstanding shares, since February 2024. The company maintains a targeted annual dividend commitment of $1.1 billion, with $2.8 billion left under its current $6 billion repurchase authorization. NEM offers a dividend yield of 0.9% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 11%.
Production Challenges, Higher Costs Ail Newmont
NEM saw lower year-over-year gold production for the third quarter. The company reported a roughly 9% year-over-year decline in attributable gold production to 1.3 million ounces. Production was impacted by lower-grade ore mining and mine sequencing across certain assets.
The company anticipates gold production at about 5.26 million ounces for 2026, indicating a year-over-year decline from 5.89 million ounces in 2025, despite projected fourth-quarter output of about 1.36 million ounces, its strongest production quarter of 2026.
Lower production is expected to lead to higher unit costs in 2026. NEM’s gold costs applicable to sales (CAS) and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) rose roughly 22% and 25% year over year, respectively, in the third quarter on a co-product basis. NEM reduced its 2026 by-product AISC guidance to $1,520 per ounce from $1,680 and lowered by-product CAS guidance to $925 per ounce. However, fourth-quarter by-product AISC is expected to rise to around $1,900 per ounce as sustaining capital spending peaks and silver production at Penasquito declines. The higher costs could undercut the profitability goals.
What Do NEM’s Earnings Estimates Indicate
Newmont’s earnings estimates for 2026 have been going up over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2026 has been revised lower over the same time frame.
A Look at Newmont Stock’s Valuation
Newmont is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 13.08X, a 26.9% discount to the industry average of 17.89X. NEM is trading at a premium to Barrick and Kinross Gold and at a discount to Agnico Eagle. Newmont currently has a Value Score of C. Barrick and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of D.
NEM’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, AEM and KGC
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto NEM Shares
Newmont is well-positioned for growth, backed by strong operating performance and a robust project pipeline that is expected to expand production capacity, extend mine life and support revenue and earnings growth. Higher year-over-year realized prices should continue to boost NEM’s profitability and drive cash flow generation. However, lower production partly stemming from lower ore grades, along with elevated costs, could pressure overall performance in 2026. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.