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Can Chevron's $13.8B Vaca Muerta Bet Fuel Long-Term Growth?

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Key Takeaways

  • Chevron plans to triple Argentina production to 195,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2035.
  • Chevron aims to increase El Trapial drilling rigs from one to three by early 2029 to support output growth.
  • Chevron seeks RIGI tax benefits as high drilling costs and pipeline access remain key to better returns.

Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report) is planning to expand its operations in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation. The company has proposed investing $13.8 billion in its El Trapial unconventional oil project, subject to approval from the Argentine government. Chevron aims to triple its production in Argentina to approximately 195,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2035. The investment is expected to support higher production from its Argentine assets over the long term.

As part of its expansion plans, Chevron intends to increase the number of drilling rigs at El Trapial from one to three by early 2029. The block currently produces approximately 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company plans to apply its experience in the Permian Basin to make drilling more efficient and lower development costs. Chevron also holds a 50% non-operated interest in the Loma Campana and Narambuena concessions, which are operated by Argentina's leading energy company YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF - Free Report) . These operations provide additional opportunities to increase production in Vaca Muerta.

Chevron has applied to participate in Argentina’s Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), which offers tax benefits and regulatory protections for large investments. The company also has an interest in the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur pipeline project, which is designed to improve crude oil transportation and access to export markets. However, bringing a well into production in Vaca Muerta costs approximately 30% more than in the Permian Basin. Lowering these costs and improving pipeline access will be important for Chevron to achieve better returns from its planned expansion.

Latin America’s Energy Players Strengthen Bet on Vaca Muerta

Argentina-focused oil and gas company Vista Energy (VIST - Free Report) is expanding its oil production in Vaca Muerta shale formation through drilling investments and acquisitions. Vista Energy’s acquisition of interests in Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro has added producing assets and future drilling opportunities. With a large inventory of potential well locations and access to crude transportation infrastructure, Vista Energy is positioned to increase output and benefit from Argentina’s expanding oil export capacity.

Meanwhile, YPF is also expanding its shale oil operations in the Vaca Muerta formation, where it partners with Chevron in the Loma Campana and Narambuena blocks. YPF is increasing drilling activity to support higher production from its unconventional assets. Meanwhile, YPF’s Vaca Muerta Oil Sur pipeline project is nearing commercial operations, with first oil expected in early 2027. Improved export access is expected to support future production growth.

The Zacks Rundown on Chevron

Shares of Chevron have gained more than 14% in the past six months, contrary to the Oil/Energy sector’s 0.3% loss.

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From a valuation perspective — in terms of forward price-to-earnings ratio — Chevron is trading at a premium compared with the industry average. However, the stock is trading below its five-year mean of 11.80.

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See how the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chevron’s earnings has been revised over the past 60 days.

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The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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