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Will Wegovy Pill Drive Renewed GLP-1 Growth Momentum for Novo Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Novo's Wegovy pill generated DKK 5.4 billion in Q3 sales, with U.S. prescriptions reaching 3.6 million.
Wegovy's oral and injectable U.S. sales grew 21%, helping Novo raise its 2026 growth outlook.
Lilly's surging Mounjaro and Zepbound sales and Foundayo launch intensify competition for Novo.
Novo (NVO - Free Report) is a dominant player in the GLP-1 market, marketing Wegovy for obesity and Ozempic and Rybelsus for type II diabetes (T2D). However, intensifying competition and pricing pressures have weighed on its growth trajectory. Against this backdrop, the strong uptake of its recently launched Wegovy pill could provide fresh momentum to its GLP-1 franchise.
Novo launched the once-daily Wegovy pill in the United States in January 2026, offering patients a convenient alternative to injectable obesity treatments. The pill generated DKK 5.4 billion in global sales during the third quarter of 2026. In the United States, prescriptions reached approximately 3.6 million during the quarter and have exceeded eight million since launch, reflecting strong demand. Its convenience and expanding access could attract patients reluctant to use injectable therapies, broadening NVO’s addressable market.
Novo is also expanding the pill's international footprint, with launches in eight markets as of early November and availability expected in more than 20 markets in 2027. Strong oral uptake supported Novo's obesity franchise, which recorded 22% year-over-year sales growth at constant exchange rates (CER) in the third quarter. Combined U.S. sales of oral and injectable Wegovy grew 21% at CER. However, global sales of injectable Wegovy declined 2% at CER. Additionally, Ozempic sales fell 5% and combined Ozempic pill/Rybelsus sales declined 10%, underscoring the importance of the Wegovy pill in offsetting weakness in the existing portfolio.
Encouragingly, Novo raised its 2026 outlook, now expecting adjusted sales and operating profit growth to range from a decline of 2% to an increase of 2% at CER compared with its previous forecast of a decline of 6% to flat growth for both metrics. The Wegovy franchise also maintains leadership in the U.S. branded obesity market, accounting for more than 50% of new patient starts. Strong launch momentum and expanding market access suggest that the Wegovy pill could revive Novo's GLP-1 growth trajectory. However, sustained growth and a meaningful recovery in NVO stock will depend on its ability to offset pricing pressures and intensifying competition.
NVO Faces Stiff Competition in the GLP-1 Market
Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) has emerged as a formidable competitor to Novo in the GLP-1 market, marketing Mounjaro for T2D and Zepbound for obesity, which compete directly with Ozempic and Wegovy, respectively. Lilly has also entered the oral obesity market with Foundayo (orforglipron), posing a direct competitive threat to the Wegovy pill.
Lilly's third-quarter 2026 results highlighted the strength of its GLP-1 franchise, with Mounjaro sales surging 65% year over year to $10.7 billion and Zepbound sales rising 49% to $5.4 billion. Foundayo also witnessed encouraging early uptake, generating $184 million in quarterly sales following its launch earlier this year. Strong demand for these therapies helped Lilly achieve 39% overall revenue growth in the quarter. Lilly's robust commercial momentum indicates that Novo will need to sustain the Wegovy pill's rapid uptake and expand patient access to defend its competitive position and translate the oral launch into durable growth.
Smaller biotech firms, such as Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR - Free Report) , are also advancing GLP-1–based therapies to challenge the incumbents. Viking’s dual GIPR/GLP-1 RA, VK2735, is being developed in both oral and subcutaneous formulations for obesity. In October, Viking initiated the phase III SUNRISE program, comprising two late-stage studies evaluating oral VK2735 in adults with obesity or overweight, with and without T2D. Meanwhile, the candidate’s subcutaneous formulation is being evaluated in the ongoing phase III VANQUISH obesity program, with both studies fully enrolled and expected to be completed in 2027.
Structure Therapeutics is advancing aleniglipron, an orally administered small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist, for obesity. Encouraged by positive phase II ACCESS results, GPCR initiated the phase III ACCOMPLISH program in August 2026, comprising two late-stage studies evaluating aleniglipron for chronic weight management. The first patients have been dosed in the program, with top-line data expected in the second half of 2028.
NVO’s Stock Price, Valuation & Estimates
Year to date, Novo shares have lost 20% against the industry’s 25.5% growth. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Novo is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 11.81 forward earnings, which is lower than 19.83 for the industry. The stock is trading below its five-year mean of 28.68.
NVO Stock Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings estimates for 2026 have decreased from $3.40 to $3.38 per share over the past 30 days. During the same time frame, Novo’s 2027 earnings estimates have increased from $3.42 to $3.45.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Shutterstock
Will Wegovy Pill Drive Renewed GLP-1 Growth Momentum for Novo Stock?
Key Takeaways
Novo (NVO - Free Report) is a dominant player in the GLP-1 market, marketing Wegovy for obesity and Ozempic and Rybelsus for type II diabetes (T2D). However, intensifying competition and pricing pressures have weighed on its growth trajectory. Against this backdrop, the strong uptake of its recently launched Wegovy pill could provide fresh momentum to its GLP-1 franchise.
Novo launched the once-daily Wegovy pill in the United States in January 2026, offering patients a convenient alternative to injectable obesity treatments. The pill generated DKK 5.4 billion in global sales during the third quarter of 2026. In the United States, prescriptions reached approximately 3.6 million during the quarter and have exceeded eight million since launch, reflecting strong demand. Its convenience and expanding access could attract patients reluctant to use injectable therapies, broadening NVO’s addressable market.
Novo is also expanding the pill's international footprint, with launches in eight markets as of early November and availability expected in more than 20 markets in 2027. Strong oral uptake supported Novo's obesity franchise, which recorded 22% year-over-year sales growth at constant exchange rates (CER) in the third quarter. Combined U.S. sales of oral and injectable Wegovy grew 21% at CER. However, global sales of injectable Wegovy declined 2% at CER. Additionally, Ozempic sales fell 5% and combined Ozempic pill/Rybelsus sales declined 10%, underscoring the importance of the Wegovy pill in offsetting weakness in the existing portfolio.
Encouragingly, Novo raised its 2026 outlook, now expecting adjusted sales and operating profit growth to range from a decline of 2% to an increase of 2% at CER compared with its previous forecast of a decline of 6% to flat growth for both metrics. The Wegovy franchise also maintains leadership in the U.S. branded obesity market, accounting for more than 50% of new patient starts. Strong launch momentum and expanding market access suggest that the Wegovy pill could revive Novo's GLP-1 growth trajectory. However, sustained growth and a meaningful recovery in NVO stock will depend on its ability to offset pricing pressures and intensifying competition.
NVO Faces Stiff Competition in the GLP-1 Market
Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) has emerged as a formidable competitor to Novo in the GLP-1 market, marketing Mounjaro for T2D and Zepbound for obesity, which compete directly with Ozempic and Wegovy, respectively. Lilly has also entered the oral obesity market with Foundayo (orforglipron), posing a direct competitive threat to the Wegovy pill.
Lilly's third-quarter 2026 results highlighted the strength of its GLP-1 franchise, with Mounjaro sales surging 65% year over year to $10.7 billion and Zepbound sales rising 49% to $5.4 billion. Foundayo also witnessed encouraging early uptake, generating $184 million in quarterly sales following its launch earlier this year. Strong demand for these therapies helped Lilly achieve 39% overall revenue growth in the quarter. Lilly's robust commercial momentum indicates that Novo will need to sustain the Wegovy pill's rapid uptake and expand patient access to defend its competitive position and translate the oral launch into durable growth.
Smaller biotech firms, such as Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR - Free Report) , are also advancing GLP-1–based therapies to challenge the incumbents. Viking’s dual GIPR/GLP-1 RA, VK2735, is being developed in both oral and subcutaneous formulations for obesity. In October, Viking initiated the phase III SUNRISE program, comprising two late-stage studies evaluating oral VK2735 in adults with obesity or overweight, with and without T2D. Meanwhile, the candidate’s subcutaneous formulation is being evaluated in the ongoing phase III VANQUISH obesity program, with both studies fully enrolled and expected to be completed in 2027.
Structure Therapeutics is advancing aleniglipron, an orally administered small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist, for obesity. Encouraged by positive phase II ACCESS results, GPCR initiated the phase III ACCOMPLISH program in August 2026, comprising two late-stage studies evaluating aleniglipron for chronic weight management. The first patients have been dosed in the program, with top-line data expected in the second half of 2028.
NVO’s Stock Price, Valuation & Estimates
Year to date, Novo shares have lost 20% against the industry’s 25.5% growth. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500
Novo is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 11.81 forward earnings, which is lower than 19.83 for the industry. The stock is trading below its five-year mean of 28.68.
NVO Stock Valuation
Earnings estimates for 2026 have decreased from $3.40 to $3.38 per share over the past 30 days. During the same time frame, Novo’s 2027 earnings estimates have increased from $3.42 to $3.45.
NVO Estimate Movement
Novo currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.