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Factors to Watch Ahead of Tyson Foods' Q4 Earnings Release

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Key Takeaways

  • Tyson Foods' Q4 earnings are expected to drop 43.5% to 65 cents a share, with revenues at $13.9B.
  • Tight cattle supplies, high costs and tough Chicken comparisons may weigh on TSN's Q4 margins.
  • Prepared Foods' brand strength, innovation and distribution gains may support Tyson Foods' growth.

Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN - Free Report) is likely to witness a bottom-line decline when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Nov. 16. 

The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged over the past 30 days at 65 cents a share, while suggesting a decrease of 43.5% from the year-ago period’s figure. TSN has a trailing four-quarter surprise of 10.5%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $13.9 billion, just a little above the year-ago period figure.

Tyson Foods, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Tyson Foods, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Tyson Foods, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Tyson Foods, Inc. Quote

Factors Likely to Influence TSN’s Upcoming Results

Tyson Foods’ fourth-quarter results are likely to be pressured by persistent challenges in its Beef segment. Tight cattle supplies, elevated cattle procurement costs and continued industry margin compression could have weighed on profitability, potentially offsetting benefits from network optimization and cost-control initiatives. Management indicated that the phased reopening of the Mexican border for cattle imports would not materially benefit fiscal 2026, suggesting continued pressure on Beef margins.

The Chicken segment may have faced difficult year-over-year comparisons, as the prior-year fourth quarter benefited from exceptionally favorable commodity market conditions. On its third-quarter earnings call, management cautioned that the profit peaks witnessed in the year-ago quarter were unlikely to recur. Meanwhile, elevated fuel and distribution expenses, alongside lingering beef-trim cost pressures in Prepared Foods, could have constrained overall margin performance.

Nevertheless, Prepared Foods is likely to have benefited from sustained consumer demand for convenient, protein-rich products, continued innovation and distribution gains. Strength across brands such as Jimmy Dean and Hillshire Farm, supported by disciplined promotional execution and targeted marketing investments, is likely to have aided volumes and market share. Management anticipated continued sales and profit growth in the fourth quarter, while easing pork commodity costs were expected to provide some margin relief later in the period.

Chicken's branded and value-added product mix, strategic customer partnerships and disciplined revenue management are likely to have supported performance despite a less favorable commodity environment. Improvements in live operations, yields, labor productivity and asset utilization may have further aided operational efficiency. Adequate hog supplies, stable consumer demand and greater integration with Prepared Foods are expected to have supported Pork's performance, while continued cost discipline and operational execution may have benefited the International segment.

Earnings Whispers for TSN

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tyson Foods this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Tyson Foods currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) and has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Dollar General Corporation (DG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.66% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues stands at $11.1 billion, which suggests 4.5% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dollar General’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $1.40, which calls for a 9.4% increase from the year-ago period’s figure. DG delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 19.1%, on average.

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.84% and a Zacks Rank #2. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at nearly $3 billion, which indicates 4.5% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ulta Beauty’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $5.60, which calls for almost 9% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. ULTA delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.6%, on average.

The Kroger Co. (KR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.26% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KR’s upcoming quarter’s revenues is pegged at $34.6 billion, suggesting a 2.1% jump from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. 

The consensus estimate for Kroger’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $1.16 per share, implying 10.5% growth from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of 36 cents. KR delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.7%, on average.

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