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What's Lowe's Probability of an Earnings Beat This Season?
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Key Takeaways
Lowe's has a 0.59% Earnings ESP, signaling a likely Q3 earnings beat despite an expected 6.5% EPS decline.
Pro business momentum, digital expansion and merchandising initiatives may support Lowe's Q3 performance.
Lowe's faces pressure from weak DIY demand, housing market challenges, and elevated operating costs.
As Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW - Free Report) prepares to unveil its third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Nov. 18, before the opening bell, investors are eager to see if the company can beat market expectations.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $22.38 billion, implying 7.5% growth from the prior year. Meanwhile, the consensus mark for earnings per share has remained stable at $2.86 over the past 30 days, which suggests a 6.5% decline from the year-ago period.
LOW has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.8%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Mooresville, NC-based company’s bottom line outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 4.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Says About LOW’s Q3 Earnings
As investors prepare for Lowe’s third-quarter results, the question looms regarding an earnings beat or miss. Our proven model predicts that an earnings beat is likely for Lowe's this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Lowe's has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.59%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Lowe's Companies, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Lowe’s is expected to have benefited from continued momentum in its Pro business during the third quarter. The company’s Total Home strategy, supported by a broader product assortment, improved inventory availability and dedicated services for professional customers, is likely to have helped sustain demand. Its digital Pro Business tools and MyLowe’s Pro Rewards program may have further strengthened customer engagement by making project planning, purchasing and fulfillment more convenient. Demand for essential repair and maintenance projects, particularly across plumbing, electrical, lumber and paint categories, is likely to have remained supportive. The integration of Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group may have contributed to overall revenues while expanding Lowe’s reach among professional contractors.
Beyond its Pro business, Lowe’s continued investments in digital capabilities and Home Services are expected to have supported the performance. Improvements to Lowes.com and its mobile app, expanded product visualization tools and a growing online marketplace may have strengthened customer engagement and purchasing activity. The company’s AI-powered MyLow assistant, which helps customers with product information and home improvement projects, is likely to have supported online conversions. Meanwhile, faster fulfillment options and the MyLowe’s Rewards program may have encouraged repeat purchases and improved shopping convenience. Lowe’s Home Services business is also likely to have benefited from demand for installation and replacement projects, supported by improvements in service delivery and customer experience.
Lowe’s merchandising initiatives and seasonal offerings may have provided support during the quarter. The company focused on expanding its premium appliance assortment, introducing innovative products across Craftsman, Kobalt and DeWalt, and strengthening its flooring selection through the Daltile rollout. A broader selection of premium products and compelling offers for price-conscious shoppers is likely to have enabled Lowe’s to serve different customer needs. At the same time, the company’s Perpetual Productivity Improvement initiatives, including better inventory replenishment, streamlined store processes and improved merchandise availability, may have supported operational efficiency.
However, Lowe’s third-quarter performance is anticipated to have faced pressure from a challenging home improvement market and cautious consumer spending. Elevated interest rates, persistent inflation and higher household expenses may have continued to discourage discretionary do-it-yourself projects and larger home renovations. Weak housing turnover and subdued residential construction activity are likely to have constrained demand. Meanwhile, aggressive promotional activity from competitors may have intensified pricing pressure, especially in seasonal categories. Elevated fuel, transportation and other operating costs could have weighed on profitability.
LOW Stock Price Performance
Lowe’s, which competes with The Home Depot, Inc. (HD - Free Report) and Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND - Free Report) , has seen its shares gain 7.3% over the past three months compared with the industry’s rise of 3.9%. Shares of Home Depot have jumped 2.2%, while those of Floor & Decor have fallen 13.3% during the same period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Does LOW Present a Strong Case for Value Investing?
From a valuation standpoint, Lowe’s trades at a discount to the industry, with a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 18.07, below the industry average of 20.61. However, the stock is trading above its own 12-month median P/E of 17.47, suggesting a modest premium to its historical valuation.
Lowe’s also trades at a discount to industry peers Home Depot and Floor & Decor, which command forward 12-month P/E multiples of 22.25 and 26.65, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Words on Lowe’s Stock
Lowe’s enters its third-quarter earnings release with encouraging growth prospects, supported by Pro demand, digital expansion and operational improvements. Although the company appears well-positioned to deliver an earnings beat, persistent DIY weakness, housing market challenges and cost pressures remain concerns. Its relative valuation discount offers some appeal, but the recent stock rally warrants caution. Existing investors may consider retaining their positions, while prospective investors could wait for the earnings release and management’s outlook before making fresh investments.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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What's Lowe's Probability of an Earnings Beat This Season?
Key Takeaways
As Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW - Free Report) prepares to unveil its third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Nov. 18, before the opening bell, investors are eager to see if the company can beat market expectations.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $22.38 billion, implying 7.5% growth from the prior year. Meanwhile, the consensus mark for earnings per share has remained stable at $2.86 over the past 30 days, which suggests a 6.5% decline from the year-ago period.
LOW has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.8%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Mooresville, NC-based company’s bottom line outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 4.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Says About LOW’s Q3 Earnings
As investors prepare for Lowe’s third-quarter results, the question looms regarding an earnings beat or miss. Our proven model predicts that an earnings beat is likely for Lowe's this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Lowe's has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.59%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Lowe's Companies, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Lowe's Companies, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Lowe's Companies, Inc. Quote
Key Factors to Observe Ahead of LOW's Q3 Earnings
Lowe’s is expected to have benefited from continued momentum in its Pro business during the third quarter. The company’s Total Home strategy, supported by a broader product assortment, improved inventory availability and dedicated services for professional customers, is likely to have helped sustain demand. Its digital Pro Business tools and MyLowe’s Pro Rewards program may have further strengthened customer engagement by making project planning, purchasing and fulfillment more convenient. Demand for essential repair and maintenance projects, particularly across plumbing, electrical, lumber and paint categories, is likely to have remained supportive. The integration of Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group may have contributed to overall revenues while expanding Lowe’s reach among professional contractors.
Beyond its Pro business, Lowe’s continued investments in digital capabilities and Home Services are expected to have supported the performance. Improvements to Lowes.com and its mobile app, expanded product visualization tools and a growing online marketplace may have strengthened customer engagement and purchasing activity. The company’s AI-powered MyLow assistant, which helps customers with product information and home improvement projects, is likely to have supported online conversions. Meanwhile, faster fulfillment options and the MyLowe’s Rewards program may have encouraged repeat purchases and improved shopping convenience. Lowe’s Home Services business is also likely to have benefited from demand for installation and replacement projects, supported by improvements in service delivery and customer experience.
Lowe’s merchandising initiatives and seasonal offerings may have provided support during the quarter. The company focused on expanding its premium appliance assortment, introducing innovative products across Craftsman, Kobalt and DeWalt, and strengthening its flooring selection through the Daltile rollout. A broader selection of premium products and compelling offers for price-conscious shoppers is likely to have enabled Lowe’s to serve different customer needs. At the same time, the company’s Perpetual Productivity Improvement initiatives, including better inventory replenishment, streamlined store processes and improved merchandise availability, may have supported operational efficiency.
However, Lowe’s third-quarter performance is anticipated to have faced pressure from a challenging home improvement market and cautious consumer spending. Elevated interest rates, persistent inflation and higher household expenses may have continued to discourage discretionary do-it-yourself projects and larger home renovations. Weak housing turnover and subdued residential construction activity are likely to have constrained demand. Meanwhile, aggressive promotional activity from competitors may have intensified pricing pressure, especially in seasonal categories. Elevated fuel, transportation and other operating costs could have weighed on profitability.
LOW Stock Price Performance
Lowe’s, which competes with The Home Depot, Inc. (HD - Free Report) and Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND - Free Report) , has seen its shares gain 7.3% over the past three months compared with the industry’s rise of 3.9%. Shares of Home Depot have jumped 2.2%, while those of Floor & Decor have fallen 13.3% during the same period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Does LOW Present a Strong Case for Value Investing?
From a valuation standpoint, Lowe’s trades at a discount to the industry, with a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 18.07, below the industry average of 20.61. However, the stock is trading above its own 12-month median P/E of 17.47, suggesting a modest premium to its historical valuation.
Lowe’s also trades at a discount to industry peers Home Depot and Floor & Decor, which command forward 12-month P/E multiples of 22.25 and 26.65, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Words on Lowe’s Stock
Lowe’s enters its third-quarter earnings release with encouraging growth prospects, supported by Pro demand, digital expansion and operational improvements. Although the company appears well-positioned to deliver an earnings beat, persistent DIY weakness, housing market challenges and cost pressures remain concerns. Its relative valuation discount offers some appeal, but the recent stock rally warrants caution. Existing investors may consider retaining their positions, while prospective investors could wait for the earnings release and management’s outlook before making fresh investments.