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Walmart & 3 Retail Stocks With High Probability of an Earnings Beat
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As investors gear up for the next wave of earnings releases, results from major Retail-Wholesale players could play an important role in shaping near-term market momentum. This reporting cycle should provide clearer insight into underlying demand and margin trends across the sector. Performance is likely to have been influenced by consumer sentiment, cautious discretionary spending and retailers’ ability to manage promotional activity, inventory levels and cost pressures amid a still-challenging macroeconomic backdrop.
Against this backdrop, investor attention is likely to center on retailers with high earnings beat probability and resilient business models. We have identified four stocks — Dollar General Corporation (DG - Free Report) , Walmart Inc. (WMT - Free Report) , Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) and The Home Depot, Inc. (HD - Free Report) — that appear well-positioned to surpass earnings expectations this season.
Key Factors Likely to Have Influenced Retail Earnings
The ongoing earnings season for retailers appears to reflect a mixed consumer spending environment, shaped by persistent inflationary pressures, elevated household expenses and cautious discretionary spending. However, demand for everyday necessities has remained relatively resilient. Retailers offering competitive prices, attractive promotions and convenient shopping options are likely to have benefited from stronger customer traffic and market share gains. However, continued pressure on household budgets may have limited overall spending growth.
Against this backdrop, retailers' merchandising strategies and store-level execution are likely to have played an important role in shaping earnings performance. Expanded private-label assortments, fresh product offerings and improved merchandise availability have helped attract shoppers and encourage repeat visits. Store renovations and better inventory management may have further strengthened sales productivity and reduced stock-related losses. Meanwhile, selective purchases of discretionary merchandise suggest that innovative products and compelling assortments can still generate demand, although promotional activity may have pressured merchandise margins.
Digital transformation has also emerged as a meaningful contributor to retail earnings, with consumers increasingly embracing faster deliveries and seamless shopping experiences. Expanding e-commerce platforms and improved fulfillment capabilities are likely to have supported transaction growth and increased shopping frequency. Investments in automation, artificial intelligence and supply-chain optimization may have strengthened productivity and lowered fulfillment costs. Growing advertising, marketplace and membership businesses have also provided higher-margin revenue opportunities, helping diversify profit streams beyond traditional merchandise sales.
However, rising operating expenses and an uncertain trade environment are likely to have complicated the earnings picture. Higher fuel prices, transportation expenses and product input costs have increased pressure on retail margins, while tariff-related developments have added uncertainty to sourcing and pricing decisions. Although tariff refunds have provided temporary financial relief for some retailers, these benefits may not reflect sustainable profitability improvements. Meanwhile, continued spending on technology, store operations and fulfillment infrastructure is likely to have weighed on operating leverage despite efficiency gains.
The housing market has also remained an important influence on retail earnings, particularly for businesses exposed to home improvement and big-ticket discretionary categories. Elevated borrowing costs, affordability challenges and sluggish housing turnover have continued to discourage major renovation projects and expensive purchases. Nevertheless, demand for smaller repair and maintenance activities has offered some support. Retailers with strong value propositions, disciplined cost management and effective omnichannel strategies appear better positioned to navigate an uneven demand environment and deliver relatively resilient earnings performance.
4 Retail Stocks Poised for Earnings Surprises
Our research shows that for stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), the chance of a positive earnings surprise is as high as 70%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Dollar General: Zacks Rank #2 + Earnings ESP of +8.66%
Dollar General's strong value proposition, extensive store network and focus on affordability continue to support customer traffic and market share gains. Improving sales across merchandise categories, operating margin expansion and stronger earnings reflect solid execution. Its Project Renovate and Project Elevate initiatives, which expand delivery capabilities and supply-chain efficiencies, are strengthening customer engagement and store productivity. Dollar General remains well-positioned to sustain profitable growth and strengthen its competitive standing.
Dollar General has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +8.66%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has improved by a penny to $1.40 over the past 30 days, implying an increase of 9.4% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $11.13 billion, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 4.5%. DG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 19.1%, on average. The company will report numbers on Dec. 3, before the market opens.
Dollar General Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Walmart continues to demonstrate strength through its price leadership, broad merchandise assortment and expanding omnichannel capabilities. Solid sales growth, market share gains and improving e-commerce profitability reflect the effectiveness of its business model. Strong momentum in advertising, marketplace services and membership programs is diversifying revenue streams and strengthening profitability. Investments in automation, artificial intelligence and faster delivery are improving operational efficiency and customer convenience. These advantages position Walmart for sustained growth.
Walmart has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.74%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings per share has risen by a penny to 64 cents over the past 30 days, implying an increase of 3.2% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $186.46 billion, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 3.9%. WMT has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.9%, on average. The company will report numbers on Nov. 19, before the market opens.
Costco's membership-driven business model, attractive pricing and loyal customer base continue to support strong sales and earnings growth. Healthy shopping traffic, rising membership income and improving renewal rates highlight the strength of its value proposition. Its Kirkland Signature portfolio, expanding digital capabilities and delivery partnerships are enhancing customer engagement. Meanwhile, warehouse expansion and supply-chain efficiencies provide additional growth opportunities. Costco remains well-positioned to capture market share.
Costco has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +3.08%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings per share has been stable at $4.87 over the past 30 days, implying an increase of 12.2% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $74.29 billion, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 10.4%. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.2%, on average. The company will report numbers on Dec. 10, after the market closes.
Costco Wholesale Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Home Depot: Zacks Rank #3 + Earnings ESP of +1.10%
Home Depot's leading market position, extensive product assortment and strong professional customer relationships continue to support business growth. Improving sales, broad-based merchandise demand and strength in smaller home improvement projects demonstrate operational resilience. Investments in innovative products, digital tools and faster delivery are enhancing customer satisfaction and shopping convenience. Its expanding professional customer capabilities and strategic acquisitions further strengthen its competitive advantages. These initiatives position Home Depot to capture future demand and sustain long-term growth.
Home Depot has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.10%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has risen by a penny to $3.87 over the past seven days, implying an increase of 3.5% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $42.72 billion, which indicates a year-over-year increase of 3.3%. HD has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.9%, on average. The company will report numbers on Nov. 17, before the market opens.
The Home Depot, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Walmart & 3 Retail Stocks With High Probability of an Earnings Beat
As investors gear up for the next wave of earnings releases, results from major Retail-Wholesale players could play an important role in shaping near-term market momentum. This reporting cycle should provide clearer insight into underlying demand and margin trends across the sector. Performance is likely to have been influenced by consumer sentiment, cautious discretionary spending and retailers’ ability to manage promotional activity, inventory levels and cost pressures amid a still-challenging macroeconomic backdrop.
Against this backdrop, investor attention is likely to center on retailers with high earnings beat probability and resilient business models. We have identified four stocks — Dollar General Corporation (DG - Free Report) , Walmart Inc. (WMT - Free Report) , Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) and The Home Depot, Inc. (HD - Free Report) — that appear well-positioned to surpass earnings expectations this season.
Key Factors Likely to Have Influenced Retail Earnings
The ongoing earnings season for retailers appears to reflect a mixed consumer spending environment, shaped by persistent inflationary pressures, elevated household expenses and cautious discretionary spending. However, demand for everyday necessities has remained relatively resilient. Retailers offering competitive prices, attractive promotions and convenient shopping options are likely to have benefited from stronger customer traffic and market share gains. However, continued pressure on household budgets may have limited overall spending growth.
Against this backdrop, retailers' merchandising strategies and store-level execution are likely to have played an important role in shaping earnings performance. Expanded private-label assortments, fresh product offerings and improved merchandise availability have helped attract shoppers and encourage repeat visits. Store renovations and better inventory management may have further strengthened sales productivity and reduced stock-related losses. Meanwhile, selective purchases of discretionary merchandise suggest that innovative products and compelling assortments can still generate demand, although promotional activity may have pressured merchandise margins.
Digital transformation has also emerged as a meaningful contributor to retail earnings, with consumers increasingly embracing faster deliveries and seamless shopping experiences. Expanding e-commerce platforms and improved fulfillment capabilities are likely to have supported transaction growth and increased shopping frequency. Investments in automation, artificial intelligence and supply-chain optimization may have strengthened productivity and lowered fulfillment costs. Growing advertising, marketplace and membership businesses have also provided higher-margin revenue opportunities, helping diversify profit streams beyond traditional merchandise sales.
However, rising operating expenses and an uncertain trade environment are likely to have complicated the earnings picture. Higher fuel prices, transportation expenses and product input costs have increased pressure on retail margins, while tariff-related developments have added uncertainty to sourcing and pricing decisions. Although tariff refunds have provided temporary financial relief for some retailers, these benefits may not reflect sustainable profitability improvements. Meanwhile, continued spending on technology, store operations and fulfillment infrastructure is likely to have weighed on operating leverage despite efficiency gains.
The housing market has also remained an important influence on retail earnings, particularly for businesses exposed to home improvement and big-ticket discretionary categories. Elevated borrowing costs, affordability challenges and sluggish housing turnover have continued to discourage major renovation projects and expensive purchases. Nevertheless, demand for smaller repair and maintenance activities has offered some support. Retailers with strong value propositions, disciplined cost management and effective omnichannel strategies appear better positioned to navigate an uneven demand environment and deliver relatively resilient earnings performance.
4 Retail Stocks Poised for Earnings Surprises
Our research shows that for stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), the chance of a positive earnings surprise is as high as 70%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Dollar General: Zacks Rank #2 + Earnings ESP of +8.66%
Dollar General's strong value proposition, extensive store network and focus on affordability continue to support customer traffic and market share gains. Improving sales across merchandise categories, operating margin expansion and stronger earnings reflect solid execution. Its Project Renovate and Project Elevate initiatives, which expand delivery capabilities and supply-chain efficiencies, are strengthening customer engagement and store productivity. Dollar General remains well-positioned to sustain profitable growth and strengthen its competitive standing.
Dollar General has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +8.66%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has improved by a penny to $1.40 over the past 30 days, implying an increase of 9.4% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $11.13 billion, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 4.5%. DG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 19.1%, on average. The company will report numbers on Dec. 3, before the market opens.
Dollar General Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Dollar General Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Dollar General Corporation Quote
Walmart: Zacks Rank #3 + Earnings ESP of +0.74%
Walmart continues to demonstrate strength through its price leadership, broad merchandise assortment and expanding omnichannel capabilities. Solid sales growth, market share gains and improving e-commerce profitability reflect the effectiveness of its business model. Strong momentum in advertising, marketplace services and membership programs is diversifying revenue streams and strengthening profitability. Investments in automation, artificial intelligence and faster delivery are improving operational efficiency and customer convenience. These advantages position Walmart for sustained growth.
Walmart has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.74%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings per share has risen by a penny to 64 cents over the past 30 days, implying an increase of 3.2% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $186.46 billion, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 3.9%. WMT has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.9%, on average. The company will report numbers on Nov. 19, before the market opens.
Walmart Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Walmart Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Walmart Inc. Quote
Costco: Zacks Rank #3 + Earnings ESP of +3.08%
Costco's membership-driven business model, attractive pricing and loyal customer base continue to support strong sales and earnings growth. Healthy shopping traffic, rising membership income and improving renewal rates highlight the strength of its value proposition. Its Kirkland Signature portfolio, expanding digital capabilities and delivery partnerships are enhancing customer engagement. Meanwhile, warehouse expansion and supply-chain efficiencies provide additional growth opportunities. Costco remains well-positioned to capture market share.
Costco has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +3.08%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings per share has been stable at $4.87 over the past 30 days, implying an increase of 12.2% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $74.29 billion, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 10.4%. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.2%, on average. The company will report numbers on Dec. 10, after the market closes.
Costco Wholesale Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Costco Wholesale Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Costco Wholesale Corporation Quote
Home Depot: Zacks Rank #3 + Earnings ESP of +1.10%
Home Depot's leading market position, extensive product assortment and strong professional customer relationships continue to support business growth. Improving sales, broad-based merchandise demand and strength in smaller home improvement projects demonstrate operational resilience. Investments in innovative products, digital tools and faster delivery are enhancing customer satisfaction and shopping convenience. Its expanding professional customer capabilities and strategic acquisitions further strengthen its competitive advantages. These initiatives position Home Depot to capture future demand and sustain long-term growth.
Home Depot has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.10%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has risen by a penny to $3.87 over the past seven days, implying an increase of 3.5% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $42.72 billion, which indicates a year-over-year increase of 3.3%. HD has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.9%, on average. The company will report numbers on Nov. 17, before the market opens.
The Home Depot, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The Home Depot, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Home Depot, Inc. Quote