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Can LLY's Expanding Obesity Pipeline Sustain Its GLP-1 Leadership?
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Key Takeaways
Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound generate around 65% of revenues, driving strong sales
Foundayo recorded $281 million in 2026 sales, with four country launches and 40-plus markets under review.
Retatrutide, eloralintide and EloraTZP could strengthen Lilly's obesity treatment portfolio
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY - Free Report) has established itself as a dominant player in the rapidly expanding obesity treatment market, driven by the strong efficacy, robust demand and growing adoption of its blockbuster GLP-1/GIP therapies, Mounjaro (tirzepatide) for type II diabetes and Zepbound (tirzepatide) for obesity. These therapies account for around 65% of the company’s total revenues and have become key top-line drivers for Lilly, with demand rising rapidly.
The company has further strengthened its competitive position with the April 2026 launch of Foundayo (orforglipron), an oral GLP-1 obesity treatment. The launch uptake for Foundayo has been encouraging, with the drug recording $281 million in sales already in 2026 so far, supported by physician education, broad commercial access and continued international launches.
Foundayo can be a commercial game-changer for Lilly as oral pills are a more convenient alternative to the currently available once-weekly injectable obesity treatments like Zepbound and Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) Wegovy.
Foundayo is currently launched in four countries for the obesity indication and under regulatory review in more than 40 additional countries, with further approvals expected later this year. Lilly expects to launch Foundayo in most international markets by 2027. For the type II diabetes indication, Lilly has filed regulatory applications in several countries, including the United States.
In addition to obesity and diabetes, Lilly is evaluating Foundayo in six phase III studies for other diabetes and obesity-related diseases.
Lilly's Next-Gen Obesity Drugs Could Fuel Long-Term Growth
The obesity market is still in the early stages of expansion, with millions of eligible patients yet to begin treatment. As manufacturing capacity improves and global reimbursement gradually expands, Lilly has significant room to grow sales over the next several years. To maintain leadership in the GLP-1 market, Lilly is developing several next-generation, more powerful and more convenient GLP-1–based treatments, including oral options and multi-acting candidates.
A key candidate in its obesity pipeline is triple-acting incretin, retatrutide, being developed for type II diabetes and obesity, along with other indications like obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), knee osteoarthritis, chronic low back pain and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease or MASLD, in late-stage studies. Retatrutide represents a new generation of “triple-action” therapy as it targets three biological pathways — GLP-1, GIP and glucagon — whereas existing medicines mostly act on one or two biological pathways.
Across its phase III TRIUMPH program, retatrutide has demonstrated substantial weight loss, reductions in A1C and improvements in certain cardiovascular risk factors, knee osteoarthritis pain and OSA severity.
Lilly has completed the clinical data package needed to support global regulatory submissions for retatrutide in obesity, OSA and knee osteoarthritis pain. The company plans to submit the treatment to the FDA in the first quarter of 2027. If approved, retatrutide could become another multibillion-dollar product.
Another promising candidate is eloralintide, a once-weekly injectable selective amylin receptor agonist, in phase III development for obesity, including patients with related comorbidities.
Another key drug in Lilly’s obesity pipeline is EloraTZP, a combination of eloralintide and tirzepatide. It is designed to target three hormonal pathways — amylin, GIP and GLP-1 — to achieve greater weight loss and improve blood sugar control. Lilly plans to advance EloraTZP into phase III studies soon as a co-formulated product.
Lilly's diversified portfolio of oral treatments, next-generation triple agonists and amylin-based combination therapies could help sustain its obesity-market leadership, expand its addressable patient population and support long-term revenue growth beyond its existing blockbusters, Mounjaro and Zepbound.
Intense Competition in the Obesity Market
Novo Nordisk launched its once-daily Wegovy pill in the United States in January 2026. The pill generated DKK 5.4 billion in third-quarter sales, with U.S. prescriptions reaching 3.6 million
Novo Nordisk’s other novel candidate in its obesity pipeline is CagriSema, a once-weekly fixed-dose combination of cagrilintide, a long-acting amylin analog, and semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist. In phase III studies, this candidate has shown 22.7% weight loss. NVO has already filed a new drug application with the FDA seeking approval of CagriSema for obesity, with a U.S. decision expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Other phase III obesity candidates include cagrilintide and zenagamtide (formerly amycretin), a single-molecule dual GLP-1/amylin receptor agonist.
While Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate the obesity space, smaller biotechs like Structure Therapeutics and Viking Therapeutics are also developing oral GLP-1 drugs for treating obesity.
Roche, Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) , Merck and AbbVie have also licensed obesity candidates, potentially challenging Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly’s dominance. Pfizer’s November 2025 acquisition of Metsera added a potential competitor, berobenatide, an injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist now in phase III studies evaluating weekly and monthly dosing for obesity.
LLY’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Lilly’s stock has risen 33.8% so far this year compared with the industry’s increase of 25.9% over the same timeframe.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Lilly’s stock is expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 29.95 forward earnings, higher than 19.88 for the industry. However, the stock is trading below its 5-year mean of 34.57.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 has risen from $34.79 to $34.96 per share over the past 30 days, while that for 2027 has risen from $46.73 to $50.07 per share over the same timeframe.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Can LLY's Expanding Obesity Pipeline Sustain Its GLP-1 Leadership?
Key Takeaways
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY - Free Report) has established itself as a dominant player in the rapidly expanding obesity treatment market, driven by the strong efficacy, robust demand and growing adoption of its blockbuster GLP-1/GIP therapies, Mounjaro (tirzepatide) for type II diabetes and Zepbound (tirzepatide) for obesity. These therapies account for around 65% of the company’s total revenues and have become key top-line drivers for Lilly, with demand rising rapidly.
The company has further strengthened its competitive position with the April 2026 launch of Foundayo (orforglipron), an oral GLP-1 obesity treatment. The launch uptake for Foundayo has been encouraging, with the drug recording $281 million in sales already in 2026 so far, supported by physician education, broad commercial access and continued international launches.
Foundayo can be a commercial game-changer for Lilly as oral pills are a more convenient alternative to the currently available once-weekly injectable obesity treatments like Zepbound and Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) Wegovy.
Foundayo is currently launched in four countries for the obesity indication and under regulatory review in more than 40 additional countries, with further approvals expected later this year. Lilly expects to launch Foundayo in most international markets by 2027. For the type II diabetes indication, Lilly has filed regulatory applications in several countries, including the United States.
In addition to obesity and diabetes, Lilly is evaluating Foundayo in six phase III studies for other diabetes and obesity-related diseases.
Lilly's Next-Gen Obesity Drugs Could Fuel Long-Term Growth
The obesity market is still in the early stages of expansion, with millions of eligible patients yet to begin treatment. As manufacturing capacity improves and global reimbursement gradually expands, Lilly has significant room to grow sales over the next several years. To maintain leadership in the GLP-1 market, Lilly is developing several next-generation, more powerful and more convenient GLP-1–based treatments, including oral options and multi-acting candidates.
A key candidate in its obesity pipeline is triple-acting incretin, retatrutide, being developed for type II diabetes and obesity, along with other indications like obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), knee osteoarthritis, chronic low back pain and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease or MASLD, in late-stage studies. Retatrutide represents a new generation of “triple-action” therapy as it targets three biological pathways — GLP-1, GIP and glucagon — whereas existing medicines mostly act on one or two biological pathways.
Across its phase III TRIUMPH program, retatrutide has demonstrated substantial weight loss, reductions in A1C and improvements in certain cardiovascular risk factors, knee osteoarthritis pain and OSA severity.
Lilly has completed the clinical data package needed to support global regulatory submissions for retatrutide in obesity, OSA and knee osteoarthritis pain. The company plans to submit the treatment to the FDA in the first quarter of 2027. If approved, retatrutide could become another multibillion-dollar product.
Another promising candidate is eloralintide, a once-weekly injectable selective amylin receptor agonist, in phase III development for obesity, including patients with related comorbidities.
Another key drug in Lilly’s obesity pipeline is EloraTZP, a combination of eloralintide and tirzepatide. It is designed to target three hormonal pathways — amylin, GIP and GLP-1 — to achieve greater weight loss and improve blood sugar control. Lilly plans to advance EloraTZP into phase III studies soon as a co-formulated product.
Lilly's diversified portfolio of oral treatments, next-generation triple agonists and amylin-based combination therapies could help sustain its obesity-market leadership, expand its addressable patient population and support long-term revenue growth beyond its existing blockbusters, Mounjaro and Zepbound.
Intense Competition in the Obesity Market
Novo Nordisk launched its once-daily Wegovy pill in the United States in January 2026. The pill generated DKK 5.4 billion in third-quarter sales, with U.S. prescriptions reaching 3.6 million
Novo Nordisk’s other novel candidate in its obesity pipeline is CagriSema, a once-weekly fixed-dose combination of cagrilintide, a long-acting amylin analog, and semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist. In phase III studies, this candidate has shown 22.7% weight loss. NVO has already filed a new drug application with the FDA seeking approval of CagriSema for obesity, with a U.S. decision expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Other phase III obesity candidates include cagrilintide and zenagamtide (formerly amycretin), a single-molecule dual GLP-1/amylin receptor agonist.
While Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate the obesity space, smaller biotechs like Structure Therapeutics and Viking Therapeutics are also developing oral GLP-1 drugs for treating obesity.
Roche, Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) , Merck and AbbVie have also licensed obesity candidates, potentially challenging Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly’s dominance. Pfizer’s November 2025 acquisition of Metsera added a potential competitor, berobenatide, an injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist now in phase III studies evaluating weekly and monthly dosing for obesity.
LLY’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Lilly’s stock has risen 33.8% so far this year compared with the industry’s increase of 25.9% over the same timeframe.
From a valuation standpoint, Lilly’s stock is expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 29.95 forward earnings, higher than 19.88 for the industry. However, the stock is trading below its 5-year mean of 34.57.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 has risen from $34.79 to $34.96 per share over the past 30 days, while that for 2027 has risen from $46.73 to $50.07 per share over the same timeframe.
Lilly has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.