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Why Is UnitedHealth (UNH) Up 1.9% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for UnitedHealth Group (UNH - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UnitedHealth due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

UNH Tops Q3 Earnings on Lower Medical Costs, Raises '26 Outlook

UnitedHealth reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.69, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.12. The bottom line rose 60.6% year over year.

Revenues declined 0.4% year over year to $112.7 billion. However, the top line beat the consensus mark by 1.2%.

The quarterly results were aided by the strength witnessed in Optum Insight and Optum Rx. Medical cost management, pricing discipline and benefit design changes also contributed to the upside. However, weakness in Optum Health and declining memberships partially offset the positives.

Q3 Business Performance of UNH

UnitedHealth’s third-quarter premium of $87.1 billion decreased from $89 billion a year ago but beat the consensus mark of $86 billion.

UNH’s adjusted medical care ratio (MCR) was 88.4% in the third quarter, which improved 150 bps from the year-ago period. MCR witnessed a decrease, backed by solid medical cost management, pricing discipline and benefit design changes. Medical costs of $77 billion declined from $80 billion a year ago.

Third-quarter total operating costs of $106.1 billion decreased 2.5% year over year, benefiting from lower medical costs and operating costs. However, the figure was higher than our model estimate of $104.5 billion. The third-quarter 2026 operating cost ratio improved to 12.8% from 13.5% a year ago.

UnitedHealth’s adjusted operating earnings rose 45.2% year over year to $6.3 billion in the third quarter.

UNH’s Business Platforms

Revenues of the health benefits business of UnitedHealth, UnitedHealthcare, declined 0.8% year over year to $86.3 billion in the third quarter. However, the metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $84.7 billion and our estimate of $82.8 billion. The UnitedHealthcare business catered to 48.3 million people as of Sept. 30, 2026, which fell 3.6% year over year.

Adjusted earnings from operations amounted to $2.7 billion, up from $1.8 billion a year ago. The adjusted operating margin increased to 3.1% from 2.1% a year ago.

Revenues in the Optum business line were $66.9 billion, which fell from $69.2 billion a year ago due to lower contribution from Optum Health. The figure missed the consensus mark of $67.1 billion. Optum’s adjusted earnings from operations rose to $3.6 billion from $2.5 billion a year ago. The adjusted operating margin of 5.3% increased from 3.6%.

UNH’s Financial Position (As of Sept. 30, 2026)

UnitedHealth exited the third quarter with cash and short-term investments of $28.5 billion, which rose from the 2025-end level of $28.1 billion. Total assets of $312.8 billion increased from the $309.6 billion figure at 2025-end.

Long-term debt, less current maturities, amounted to $68.7 billion, down from the $72.3 billion figure as of Dec. 31, 2025. Short-term borrowings and the current maturities of long-term debt were $5.6 billion.

Total equity of $104.1 billion advanced from the 2025-end level of $100.1 billion.

UnitedHealth generated operating cash flows of $25.1 billion in the first nine months of 2026, which grew from the prior-year figure of $18.6 billion. In the first nine months of 2026, it paid dividends worth $6.2 billion and repurchased $5 billion of stock.

UNH’s Revised 2026 Outlook

Management earlier anticipated revenues for 2026 above $439 billion, which are below the 2025 level due to planned right-sizing across operations. Adjusted EPS is now expected to be at least $20.5 for 2026, up from the previously guided range of $19.5-$20, indicating improving margins. Net margin was expected to be around 3.6%, up from 2.7% in 2025.

The company earlier expected MCR to be 88.1% (± 25 bps) in 2026, down from 89.1% in 2025. The operating cost ratio was likely to be 12.8% (± 50 bps) in 2026. The tax rate was expected to be around 18.5%.

Operating cash flows were estimated to be around $24 billion, up from the previous guidance of greater than $18 billion. UNH was expected to make repurchases of at least $5 billion and pay dividends worth $8 billion in 2026. Capital expenditure was estimated at $3.8 billion for the year.

Furthermore, management earlier expected medical memberships to be within 46.945-47.495 million in 2026, with significant declines in commercial risk, Medicare Advantage and Medicaid heads.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted 7.06% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, UnitedHealth has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise UnitedHealth has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

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