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SpaceX vs. AST SpaceMobile: Which Space Stock Has the Edge Now?
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Key Takeaways
SPCX emerges as the better investment pick, backed by healthier fundamentals and expanding AI initiatives.
SPCX's 2026 sales are projected to jump 157.9% compared with 123.9% growth expected for ASTS.
SpaceX trades at 13.07 times forward sales versus ASTS' 25.47, offering a more attractive valuation.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) and AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) are two key players in satellite-based communications aiming to develop extensive low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks to deliver seamless broadband and direct-to-device mobile connectivity. Operating a fleet of nearly 11,200 satellites in LEO, SpaceX's Starlink offers satellite Internet directly to consumers and business enterprises. The network served about 13.6 million Starlink subscribers across more than 150 countries and other markets. SpaceX reported a median residential download speed of 225 Mbps during peak hours.
AST SpaceMobile is building the world’s first and only global cellular broadband network in space, accessible directly by standard smartphones (4G-LTE/5G devices) for commercial and government use, leveraging its extensive Intellectual Property and patent portfolio. The SpaceMobile Service is provided by a constellation of high-powered, large phased-array satellites in LEO using low-band and mid-band spectrums controlled by Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) in areas lacking terrestrial network coverage.
Let us delve a little deeper into the companies’ competitive dynamics to understand which of the two is relatively better placed in the industry.
The Case for SPCX
SpaceX has transformed the launch industry through its reusable Falcon 9 rockets, significantly reducing launch costs and increasing mission frequency. The company now conducts more launches annually than any of its global competitors, giving it a commanding share of the commercial launch market. In addition, Starlink provides recurring subscription income and potentially higher long-term margins. The business also benefits from a powerful competitive advantage. SpaceX can launch its own satellites at a fraction of the cost of its competitors, allowing Starlink to expand its network faster and more efficiently. As global demand for reliable broadband connectivity increases, Starlink's prospects become solid.
The Elon Musk-led company is aiming to evolve into a vertically integrated artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company by combining advanced AI models, large-scale computing capabilities and satellite connectivity under one umbrella. The transformation is likely to unlock a significantly larger addressable market while diversifying the company's revenue base beyond launch services and Starlink. As part of the transition, xAI's flagship chatbot, Grok, operates under the SpaceXAI brand. The integration is expected to strengthen collaboration between the company's AI software, computing infrastructure and satellite network, creating a differentiated ecosystem that few competitors can match.
The company plans to deploy AI compute satellites as early as 2028, effectively creating space-based data centers capable of delivering large-scale computing capacity. This initiative leverages SpaceX's leadership in satellite deployment while addressing the growing demand for AI computing resources. Alongside its satellite ambitions, SpaceX continues to expand its Colossus data center platform, strengthening its position in AI infrastructure. SpaceX has also signed a definitive agreement to acquire Anysphere in an all-stock deal valued at $60 billion. The buyout of a startup firm behind the rapidly growing AI coding assistant Cursor is primarily aimed at gaining a firmer footing in the enterprise AI market.
However, SpaceX is scaling several capital-intensive platforms simultaneously. The company is investing heavily in COLOSSUS, COLOSSUS II, Grok, enterprise offerings, compute services and future orbital AI compute. Management expects a multi-year investment cycle until sustained positive segment-adjusted EBITDA is realized. The strategy may create a cost advantage if compute, energy and launch assets integrate as planned. Until then, AI adds uncertainty to margins, capital needs and consolidated earnings quality.
The Case for ASTS
AST SpaceMobile is likely to strengthen its position as one of the leading space-based cellular broadband service providers in the market with the proposed deployment of BlueBird satellites in its direct-to-device (D2D) constellation. The company is manufacturing satellites through BlueBird 51 at its Texas facilities. Two factories are operating full shifts, supporting management's target of producing six ASIC-enabled satellites monthly by December 2026. BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16 have been shipped to Cape Canaveral, while additional satellite shipments are planned through January 2027. Management targets approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by mid-2027, with launch agreements covering more than 100 satellites for deployment during 2027 and 2028.
Utilizing large phased array antennas measuring approximately 2,400 square feet, AST SpaceMobile's technology is backed by more than 3,900 patents and patent-pending claims. This design aims to deliver global cellular coverage by eliminating dead zones and providing space-based connectivity to areas without broadband service. By connecting directly to standard smartphones at broadband speeds, these advanced phased arrays eliminate the need for special equipment, enhancing current mobile networks while ensuring seamless use of existing mobile phones. The SpaceMobile service is compatible with all major brands available in the market and connects directly to everyday mobile phones.
AST SpaceMobile has partnered with leading carriers, such as AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) and Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) , to tap into a pre-existing pool of cell customers and raise funds to help build a worldwide satellite network. This has enhanced cellular coverage in the United States, essentially eliminating dead zones and empowering remote areas of the country with space-based connectivity.
However, unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, including rising inflation, higher interest rates, capital market volatility, tariff imposition and geopolitical conflicts, are negatively impacting the company’s operations. These have led to continued fluctuations in satellite material prices, resulting in increased capital costs and pressure on the company’s financial performance. In addition, AST SpaceMobile faces severe competition from existing and new industry leaders like SpaceX’s Starlink and Globalstar, which are developing satellite communications technology using LEO constellations. To combat such competitive pressure, ASTS has to continuously customize its network offerings, enhance the cost-effectiveness of its products and services and boost the satellite data networks, which increases operating costs and reduces margins.
How Do Zacks Estimates Compare for SPCX & ASTS?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SpaceX’s fiscal 2026 sales implies year-over-year growth of 157.9%. EPS estimates have increased 144.4% over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AST SpaceMobile’s 2026 sales implies year-over-year growth of 123.9%, while EPS estimates suggest a decline of 73.1%. EPS estimates have trended down 2.2% over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance & Valuation of SPCX & ASTS
Since its IPO, SpaceX is down 13.1%. AST SpaceMobile has declined 58.2% over this period compared with the industry’s fall of 12%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SpaceX looks more attractive than AST SpaceMobile from a valuation standpoint. Going by the price/sales ratio, SpaceX’s shares currently trade at 13.07 forward sales, lower than AST SpaceMobile’s 25.47.
Both companies expect their sales to improve in 2026. SpaceX is steadily transforming from a pure-play aerospace company into a diversified AI infrastructure leader. Its aggressive investments in AI computing, the integration of SpaceXAI, expanding enterprise partnerships and plans for space-based data centers underscore management's conviction that AI will be a key driver of future growth. With relatively healthy fundamentals, SpaceX appears to be a better investment proposition at the moment.
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SpaceX vs. AST SpaceMobile: Which Space Stock Has the Edge Now?
Key Takeaways
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX - Free Report) and AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) are two key players in satellite-based communications aiming to develop extensive low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks to deliver seamless broadband and direct-to-device mobile connectivity. Operating a fleet of nearly 11,200 satellites in LEO, SpaceX's Starlink offers satellite Internet directly to consumers and business enterprises. The network served about 13.6 million Starlink subscribers across more than 150 countries and other markets. SpaceX reported a median residential download speed of 225 Mbps during peak hours.
AST SpaceMobile is building the world’s first and only global cellular broadband network in space, accessible directly by standard smartphones (4G-LTE/5G devices) for commercial and government use, leveraging its extensive Intellectual Property and patent portfolio. The SpaceMobile Service is provided by a constellation of high-powered, large phased-array satellites in LEO using low-band and mid-band spectrums controlled by Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) in areas lacking terrestrial network coverage.
Let us delve a little deeper into the companies’ competitive dynamics to understand which of the two is relatively better placed in the industry.
The Case for SPCX
SpaceX has transformed the launch industry through its reusable Falcon 9 rockets, significantly reducing launch costs and increasing mission frequency. The company now conducts more launches annually than any of its global competitors, giving it a commanding share of the commercial launch market. In addition, Starlink provides recurring subscription income and potentially higher long-term margins. The business also benefits from a powerful competitive advantage. SpaceX can launch its own satellites at a fraction of the cost of its competitors, allowing Starlink to expand its network faster and more efficiently. As global demand for reliable broadband connectivity increases, Starlink's prospects become solid.
The Elon Musk-led company is aiming to evolve into a vertically integrated artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company by combining advanced AI models, large-scale computing capabilities and satellite connectivity under one umbrella. The transformation is likely to unlock a significantly larger addressable market while diversifying the company's revenue base beyond launch services and Starlink. As part of the transition, xAI's flagship chatbot, Grok, operates under the SpaceXAI brand. The integration is expected to strengthen collaboration between the company's AI software, computing infrastructure and satellite network, creating a differentiated ecosystem that few competitors can match.
The company plans to deploy AI compute satellites as early as 2028, effectively creating space-based data centers capable of delivering large-scale computing capacity. This initiative leverages SpaceX's leadership in satellite deployment while addressing the growing demand for AI computing resources. Alongside its satellite ambitions, SpaceX continues to expand its Colossus data center platform, strengthening its position in AI infrastructure. SpaceX has also signed a definitive agreement to acquire Anysphere in an all-stock deal valued at $60 billion. The buyout of a startup firm behind the rapidly growing AI coding assistant Cursor is primarily aimed at gaining a firmer footing in the enterprise AI market.
However, SpaceX is scaling several capital-intensive platforms simultaneously. The company is investing heavily in COLOSSUS, COLOSSUS II, Grok, enterprise offerings, compute services and future orbital AI compute. Management expects a multi-year investment cycle until sustained positive segment-adjusted EBITDA is realized. The strategy may create a cost advantage if compute, energy and launch assets integrate as planned. Until then, AI adds uncertainty to margins, capital needs and consolidated earnings quality.
The Case for ASTS
AST SpaceMobile is likely to strengthen its position as one of the leading space-based cellular broadband service providers in the market with the proposed deployment of BlueBird satellites in its direct-to-device (D2D) constellation. The company is manufacturing satellites through BlueBird 51 at its Texas facilities. Two factories are operating full shifts, supporting management's target of producing six ASIC-enabled satellites monthly by December 2026. BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16 have been shipped to Cape Canaveral, while additional satellite shipments are planned through January 2027. Management targets approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by mid-2027, with launch agreements covering more than 100 satellites for deployment during 2027 and 2028.
Utilizing large phased array antennas measuring approximately 2,400 square feet, AST SpaceMobile's technology is backed by more than 3,900 patents and patent-pending claims. This design aims to deliver global cellular coverage by eliminating dead zones and providing space-based connectivity to areas without broadband service. By connecting directly to standard smartphones at broadband speeds, these advanced phased arrays eliminate the need for special equipment, enhancing current mobile networks while ensuring seamless use of existing mobile phones. The SpaceMobile service is compatible with all major brands available in the market and connects directly to everyday mobile phones.
AST SpaceMobile has partnered with leading carriers, such as AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) and Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) , to tap into a pre-existing pool of cell customers and raise funds to help build a worldwide satellite network. This has enhanced cellular coverage in the United States, essentially eliminating dead zones and empowering remote areas of the country with space-based connectivity.
However, unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, including rising inflation, higher interest rates, capital market volatility, tariff imposition and geopolitical conflicts, are negatively impacting the company’s operations. These have led to continued fluctuations in satellite material prices, resulting in increased capital costs and pressure on the company’s financial performance. In addition, AST SpaceMobile faces severe competition from existing and new industry leaders like SpaceX’s Starlink and Globalstar, which are developing satellite communications technology using LEO constellations. To combat such competitive pressure, ASTS has to continuously customize its network offerings, enhance the cost-effectiveness of its products and services and boost the satellite data networks, which increases operating costs and reduces margins.
How Do Zacks Estimates Compare for SPCX & ASTS?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SpaceX’s fiscal 2026 sales implies year-over-year growth of 157.9%. EPS estimates have increased 144.4% over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AST SpaceMobile’s 2026 sales implies year-over-year growth of 123.9%, while EPS estimates suggest a decline of 73.1%. EPS estimates have trended down 2.2% over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance & Valuation of SPCX & ASTS
Since its IPO, SpaceX is down 13.1%. AST SpaceMobile has declined 58.2% over this period compared with the industry’s fall of 12%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SpaceX looks more attractive than AST SpaceMobile from a valuation standpoint. Going by the price/sales ratio, SpaceX’s shares currently trade at 13.07 forward sales, lower than AST SpaceMobile’s 25.47.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SPCX or ASTS: Which is a Better Pick?
SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Both companies expect their sales to improve in 2026. SpaceX is steadily transforming from a pure-play aerospace company into a diversified AI infrastructure leader. Its aggressive investments in AI computing, the integration of SpaceXAI, expanding enterprise partnerships and plans for space-based data centers underscore management's conviction that AI will be a key driver of future growth. With relatively healthy fundamentals, SpaceX appears to be a better investment proposition at the moment.