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Circle Sees USDC Volume Surge: Can Momentum Last?

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Key Takeaways

  • Circle's USDC transaction volume jumped 49% to $13.9 trillion, lifting its market share to 79%.
  • Record USDC minting and redemption activity reached $208 billion, while meaningful wallets grew 16%.
  • Circle Payments Network volume surged 15.2 times, but lower reserve yields and competition weigh on growth.

Circle Internet Group (CRCL - Free Report) is witnessing strong growth in USDC transaction activity as stablecoin adoption expands across trading, payments and institutional settlements. The company's USDC onchain transaction volume surged 49% year over year to $13.9 trillion in the third quarter of 2026, significantly outpacing the 26% growth in the overall stablecoin market. Its share of stablecoin transaction volume increased to 79% from 66% a year ago.

Circle's growing transaction activity is supported by stronger network adoption. The company reported record USDC minting and redemption activity of $208 billion, up 42% year over year. Meaningful USDC wallets increased 16% to 7.35 million. However, quarter-end USDC circulation remained nearly flat year over year at $73.9 billion, highlighting the gap between transaction growth and outstanding stablecoin supply.

Circle is expanding its Circle Payments Network (CPN), which connects financial institutions and businesses for stablecoin-based payments and settlements. CPN's annualized payment volume reached $41.3 billion in the third quarter, up 15.2 times year over year, before surpassing $58 billion as of Oct. 30. Its Arc blockchain, strategic partnerships and planned Tazapay acquisition could further strengthen USDC adoption.

Despite strong transaction growth, lower reserve yields pressured reserve income, which declined 7.5% year over year to $657.6 million as the reserve return rate fell to 3.54% in the third quarter of 2026. Stablecoin competition, distribution costs and regulatory uncertainty also pose challenges.

Circle's long-term prospects depend on converting rising transaction activity into sustained circulation growth and recurring revenues. Its unchanged 40% multiyear, through-cycle USDC circulation CAGR framework and expanding payment infrastructure offer long-term growth opportunities. However, execution challenges, interest-rate sensitivity and intensifying competition remain important risks.

How Are CRCL’s Competitors Faring?

PayPal Holdings (PYPL - Free Report) competes with Circle through PYUSD, a dollar-backed stablecoin issued by Paxos. PYUSD had approximately $2.73 billion in circulation as of Nov. 12, 2026, well below Circle’s $73.9 billion at September-end. PayPal’s extensive payments network and digital wallets could boost adoption across merchant transactions, cross-border payments and consumer transfers.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI - Free Report) competes through SoFiUSD, its dollar-backed stablecoin issued by SoFi Bank. Its circulating supply stood at approximately $324.4 million as of Nov. 13, 2026. SoFi introduced stablecoin settlement through Mastercard and plans to migrate a card program representing more than $25 billion in annualized volume, supporting potential future adoption.

CRCL’s Share Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of CRCL have lost 10.9% in the past three months compared with the broader industry’s 10.2% and the S&P 500 Index’s 3.1% fall.

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From a valuation standpoint, CRCL trades at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 4.5, higher than the industry's average of 2.34. It carries a Value Score of F.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is currently pegged at $1.20 per share, up by 5 cents over the past week. This represents a sharp year-over-year improvement.

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Circle stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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