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Why Is Progressive (PGR) Up 10.2% Since Last Earnings Report?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Progressive (PGR - Free Report) . Shares have added about 10.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Progressive due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Progressive's Q3 Earnings Top Estimates on Higher Premiums
The Progressive Corporation’s third-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $4.60 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.1%. The bottom line increased 13.6% year over year.
Behind the Headlines
Net premiums written were $22.3 billion in the quarter, up 4% from $21.4 billion a year ago.
Net premiums earned grew 5% to $21.9 billion. The reported figure met the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Net realized loss on securities was $170 million, versus a $295 million gain in the year-ago quarter.
Combined ratio improved 80 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 88.7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at 89.4.
September Numbers in Details
Operating revenues grew 5.2% year over year to $7.7 billion, driven by 4.9% higher net premiums earned, a 13.2% increase in net investment income, a 5% rise in fees and other revenues and 6.7% higher service revenues.
Total expenses decreased 5.6% to $6.6 billion, largely attributable to the absence of policyholder credit expense in the current month.
September Policies in Force
Policies in force were strong in the Personal Lines segment, up 6% year over year to 39.2 million. Progressive’s Commercial Lines segment policies rose 5% year over year to 1.3 million.
In the Personal Lines segment, Agency Auto increased 7% year over year to 11.3 million, while Direct Auto increased 8% to 16.8 million. Special Lines improved 6% to 7.4 million.
The Property business had 3.6 million policies in force, flat year over year.
Financial Update
Progressive’s book value per share was $59.51 as of Sept. 30, 2026, down 1.6% from $60.45 as of Sept. 30, 2025.
Return on equity in September 2026 was 25.7%, down from 37.1% reported in the year-ago period. The total debt-to-total capital ratio deteriorated 330 bps to 19.6.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
VGM Scores
At this time, Progressive has a average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Progressive has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Why Is Progressive (PGR) Up 10.2% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Progressive (PGR - Free Report) . Shares have added about 10.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Progressive due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Progressive's Q3 Earnings Top Estimates on Higher Premiums
The Progressive Corporation’s third-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $4.60 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.1%. The bottom line increased 13.6% year over year.
Behind the Headlines
Net premiums written were $22.3 billion in the quarter, up 4% from $21.4 billion a year ago.
Net premiums earned grew 5% to $21.9 billion. The reported figure met the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Net realized loss on securities was $170 million, versus a $295 million gain in the year-ago quarter.
Combined ratio improved 80 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 88.7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at 89.4.
September Numbers in Details
Operating revenues grew 5.2% year over year to $7.7 billion, driven by 4.9% higher net premiums earned, a 13.2% increase in net investment income, a 5% rise in fees and other revenues and 6.7% higher service revenues.
Total expenses decreased 5.6% to $6.6 billion, largely attributable to the absence of policyholder credit expense in the current month.
September Policies in Force
Policies in force were strong in the Personal Lines segment, up 6% year over year to 39.2 million. Progressive’s Commercial Lines segment policies rose 5% year over year to 1.3 million.
In the Personal Lines segment, Agency Auto increased 7% year over year to 11.3 million, while Direct Auto increased 8% to 16.8 million. Special Lines improved 6% to 7.4 million.
The Property business had 3.6 million policies in force, flat year over year.
Financial Update
Progressive’s book value per share was $59.51 as of Sept. 30, 2026, down 1.6% from $60.45 as of Sept. 30, 2025.
Return on equity in September 2026 was 25.7%, down from 37.1% reported in the year-ago period. The total debt-to-total capital ratio deteriorated 330 bps to 19.6.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
VGM Scores
At this time, Progressive has a average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Progressive has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.