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Why Is ON Semiconductor (ON) Up 8.8% Since Its Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON - Free Report) . Shares have added about 8.8% in that time frame.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is ON due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Recent Earnings

ON Semi delivered first-quarter 2018 non-GAAP earnings of 40 cents per share that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. Earnings increased 48% year over year and 3% sequentially.

The company delivered revenues of $1.38 billion, which increased 7% year over year from the year-ago quarter’s level of $1.28 billion and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.36 billion. The figure was also toward the upper end of management’s guided range of $1.34-$1.39 billion.

Notably, year ago figure excludes a one-time impact of $155 million due to a change in revenue recognition model to the "sell-in" method from the "sell-through" method. Moreover, sequentially revenues were flat.

Robust demand, adoption and favorable product mix of the company’s diversified product portfolio drove year-over-year growth. The company continues to gain from its strength in automotive and industrial end-markets.

Revenue Details

Business Units Metrics:

ON Semiconductor has three business units namely — Power Solutions Group or PSG (revenues of $693 million), Analog Solutions (revenues of $496 million) and Image Sensor Group (revenues of $189 million).

End-Market Metrics:

Automotive (32% of revenues) end-market revenues were approximately $445.3 million, up 8% year over year. In the quarter, the company’s CMOS image sensors, ADAS, power management products, wireless charging, mixed signal ASICs, MOSFETs and sensor interface products witnessed strong demand. Continued growth in ADAS and LEDs design wins fueled growth.

The company boasts of competitive edge over its peers in delivering a comprehensive image sensor solution for autonomous driving applications and ADAS. The solution features exhaustive range of pixel densities which include 1, 2, and 8 megapixels, on a single platform.

Industrial (26%) end-market revenues increased 11% year over year to $361.5 million. Solid demand of Python line of products aided growth. Demand in industrial end-markets was further driven by power modules, image sensors, machine vision as well as favorable macroeconomic conditions.

The addition of Fairchild’s offerings to its product portfolio has made it lucrative. Moreover, the company is in the process of launching a new platform of products providing higher efficiency to access a wider range of the industrial markets.

Communications (17%) end-market revenues dipped 3% year over year to $239.8 million. The decline was mainly due to a slowdown witnessed in smart-phone market, which was partially mitigated by the company’s penetration in key global markets. New platforms as well as increased adoption of its content on major platforms aided ON Semiconductor to minimize the impact of the decline.

Computing (11%) grew 20% year over year to $149.4 million, thanks to the ramp in cloud and server solutions segments and a favorable client PC market.

Consumer (13%) end-market revenues grew 7% on a year-over-year basis to $181.5 million.

Operating Details

Non-GAAP gross margin was 37.6%, up 10 basis points (bps) sequentially and 220 bps on a year-over-year basis backed by improvement in operational efficiency. Moreover, strengthened product mix reflected improved contribution from the higher-margined industrial, server and automotive segments. Management expects mix improvement, portfolio optimization and manufacturing synergies from the acquisition of Fairchild to further drive margins.

Non-GAAP operating margin was 15.7%, reflecting a year-over-year and sequential increase of 250 bps and 40 bps, respectively.

Balance Sheet

Cash & cash equivalents were $924.9 million, down from $949.2 million in the previous quarter.

In the first quarter, the company generated operating and free cash flow of $226.5 million and $127.0 million, respectively.

Guidance

For the second quarter of 2018, ON Semiconductor forecasts revenues to be in the range of $1.405-$1.455 billion (mid-point $1.43 billion), given its booking trends, estimated turn level and backlog level. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter is pegged at $1.42 billion.

Automotive revenues are anticipated to remain strong backed by the impressive demand witnessed by image sensors for ADAS applications, and IGBTs for electric vehicle traction motors in China.

Furthermore, management anticipates silicon carbide (SiC) developments to generate revenues from second half of 2018 in the automotive end-market. Ramp of design wins led to impressive growth in LED lighting business, consequently bolstering the prospects of automotive lighting.

Industrial end-market revenues are expected to grow sequentially. Management anticipates energy-efficient power modules to be a key catalyst in the long term for industrial end-market.

Management projects low demand in Communications end market to keep revenues relatively flat or witness a decline on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

Revenues for computing end-market are projected to increase sequentially owing to a rise in seasonal demand and continued ramp in server business.

Management expects Server business to significantly contribute to computing end market in 2018. ON Semiconductor is engaging important cloud and server companies, and working on next generation platforms for leading CPU providers.

However, revenues in consumer end-market are anticipated to remain flat sequentially.

Non-GAAP gross margin is projected to be in the range of approximately 37-39%.

Non-GAAP operating expenses are expected in the range of $305-$319 million. The company revealed that the sequential increase is attributed to seasonality of stock-based compensation grant.

For full year 2018, management targets free cash flow generation of $800 million. It continues to expect margin expansion as well as free cash flow growth throughout 2018 driven by synergies from Fairchild acquisition and better product mix.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. There have been nine revisions higher for the current quarter. Last month, the consensus estimate has shifted by 5.3% due to these changes.

ON Semiconductor Corporation Price and Consensus

 

VGM Scores

At this time, ON has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the momentum front with a B. Following the exact same course, the stock was also allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Based on our scores, the stock is more suitable for growth investors than those looking for value and momentum.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, ON has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.




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