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Is an Earnings Beat in Store for Blackstone (BX) in Q2?

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The Blackstone Group L.P. (BX - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2018 results on Jul 19, before the opening bell. Its revenues and earnings are projected to grow on a year-over-year basis.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s economic net income surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Growth in assets under management (AUM) was partially offset by a decline in revenues and higher expenses.

Moreover, Blackstone boasts an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, with an average positive surprise of 15.8%.

However, activities of the company in the second quarter failed to win analysts’ confidence. As a result, its Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings of 70 cents has remained unchanged over the past 30 days. Nonetheless, the figure reflects a year-over-year improvement of 18.6%.

In fact, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of $1.65 billion for the to-be-reported quarter reflects rise of 6.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Driven by strong fundamentals, the company’s shares have gained 10.3% so far this year against 6.3% decline recorded by the industry it belongs to.

Will the stock rally continue post Q2 earnings release? Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.

A Positive Surprise in Store?

According to our quantitative model, chances of Blackstone beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the second quarter are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Blackstone is +3.70%.

Zacks Rank: Blackstone currently has a Zacks Rank of 3, which, when combined with a positive ESP, makes us reasonably confident of an earnings beat.

Factors to Influence Q2 Results

Driven by net inflows, the company’s fee-earning AUM and total AUM have been witnessing consistent growth since the past few years. In fact, with an improvement in the overall economic scenario, Blackstone’s fund-raising ability is likely to continue aiding the uptrend in its fee-earning AUM and total AUM in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fee-earning AUM for the second quarter is $328 billion, which reflects an improvement of nearly 16.3% year over year. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM of $454 billion depicts 22.4% growth from the prior-year quarter end.

Given the growth in assets, the company’s performance fee is also expected to be positively impacted in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, because of rise in compensation and benefit costs, the company’s overall expenses remained elevated in the past few years. Moreover, as its well-performing funds require more headcount, expenses are likely to increase further during the quarter under review.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some other stocks that you may want to consider, as according to our model, these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

KeyCorp (KEY - Free Report) is scheduled to release results on Jul 19. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.32% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

E*TRADE Financial Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and presently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is also slated to release results on Jul 19.

SunTrust Banks, Inc. (STI - Free Report) is slated to release results on Jul 20. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

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