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Broadcom (AVGO) Stock Jumps Ahead of Earnings: What to Watch

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Shares of Broadcom (AVGO - Free Report) have plummeted roughly 16% over the last three months as investors continue to react negatively to the firm’s plan to buy CA Technologies. But shares of AVGO popped 0.91% during regular trading Wednesday. So, what should you expect from Broadcom when it reports its fiscal Q3 financial results after the closing bell Thursday?

Overview

Broadcom has been one of the worst-performing stocks among major chip companies in 2018. AVGO stock is down about 14% since the start of the year, while the broader semiconductor market has jumped nearly 10%. Major gains from the likes of Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) , Micron (MU - Free Report) , Advanced Micro Devices (AMD - Free Report) , and others make Broadcom’s performance look even worse.

Much of Broadcom’s downturn centers on two deals. First, investors were made nervous after President Donald Trump blocked in March Broadcom’s $117 billion hostile bid for Qualcomm (QCOM - Free Report) , citing concerns that Broadcom would skimp on research and development given its reputation as a cost-cutter. Broadcom then turned its focus to CA Technologies, which it is set to acquire for $18.9 billion in cash.

Investors were seemingly caught off guard by the company’s decision to jump into the software business. But, if Broadcom reports strong quarterly results things could change quickly for AVGO stock.

 

Outlook

Broadcom saw its fiscal second-quarter revenues surge by 20% to reach $5.01 billion. Our current Zacks Consensus Estimate is calling for the firm’s current quarterly revenues to jump by 13.4% to hit $5.06 billion. Meanwhile, at the other end of the income statement, AVGO is expected to see its adjusted quarterly earnings hit $4.83 per share, which would mark a nearly 18% surge.

But, we still need to know how likely it is that Broadcom tops our quarterly earnings estimate. Luckily, we can turn to our exclusive Earnings ESP figure to help us find out. Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter. The Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change.

This is done because, generally speaking, when an analyst posts an estimate right before an earnings release, it means that they have fresh information which could potentially be more accurate than what analysts thought about a company two or three months ago.

A positive Earnings ESP paired with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better ranking helps us feel confident about the potential for an earnings beat. In fact, our 10-year backtest has revealed that this methodology has accurately produced a positive surprise 70% of the time.

Broadcom currently sports an earnings ESP of 0.20% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Therefore, our model suggests that the firm could beat our quarterly earnings estimate. Plus, Broadcom has topped our quarterly earnings estimates four years in a row.

The San Jose, California-headquartered company is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter financial results after the closing bell on Thursday, September 6.

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