The trade dispute between China and the United States seems to have eased a little after a year-long tussle. In the G-20 meet, China president Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to not announce any new tariff for 90 days.
Trump had previously warned about raising the existing 10% tariff on $200 billion of imported Chinese goods to 25% in January 2019. In fact, the world has seen a series of retaliatory tariff imposition by the countries in the past nine months.
Meanwhile, the easing trade tensions have increased the risk appetite globally and should lead world equities to gain in the near term.
We highlight a few ETFs areas that are likely to gain the maximum from the present scenario.
China & Asia
No wonder, Chinese equities soared on the news prompting strategists at Morgan Stanley to upgrade their already-positive forecast for China’s stocks next year. The rally will also buoy equity benchmarks in Hong Kong and Shanghai.
The Shanghai Composite Index has been one of the world’s worst benchmarks this year, down 22% through last week, marking its worst annual performance since 2008. The yuan has fallen about 10% since a high reached in April, per Bloomberg.
However, the ceasefire will boost China ETFs like iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI - Free Report) and Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund (ASHR - Free Report) . Also, associated Asian nations and ETFs like iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF EWH, Invesco BLDRS Asia 50 ADR Index Fund (ADRA - Free Report) , iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ - Free Report) , iShares MSCI Australia ETF EWA, iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF (EWT - Free Report) and iShares MSCI South Korea Capped ETF (EWY - Free Report) will feel the impact of this truce (read: Apple Woes Trigger Tech Sector Rout: ETFs Under Threat).
Futures of U.S. key indexes are showing that Wall Street is positioned for a massive rebound. Investors should note that heightened trade disputes caused occasional upheavals in these key indexes in 2018. These are now trading at a beaten-down level and could stage a nice rally on the trade news. SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA - Free Report) and Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ are thus in focus.
Per Morgan Stanley equity strategists, “semiconductor and semiconductor equipment companies have the highest revenue exposure to China at 52%” and are exposed to maximum risks on rising trade tensions. The easing tensions may do some good to ETFs like VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF SMH.
Agricultural products like yellow and black soybean faced a retaliatory tariff. Notably, China purchases about half of the U.S. soybean and is the second-largest buyer of American cotton. News of a conciliatory summit between the United States and China should drive soybean prices. Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB - Free Report) should thus gain. Soybean futures already rose 1.9% (read: US Farm Belt at Risk on China Tariffs: ETFs in Focus).
U.S. auto companies earn about 12% revenues from China. With Beijing slamming tariffs on U.S. auto imports, First Trust NASDAQ Global Auto Index Fund (CARZ - Free Report) was under pressure. Now, auto companies can hope for decent gains in the coming days (read: 5 Sector ETFs Most Exposed to Trade Tensions).
A break in tariff-related proceedings gave a boost to Asian shipping stocks, per MarketWatch, bringing Invesco Shipping ETF (SEA - Free Report) into focus.
China’s list of levies includes aircraft. Notably, China is a key market for Boeing Co (BA - Free Report) where it serves as the largest exporter of America. Thanks to trade tensions, China could take harsh actions against such American companies. So, aerospace ETFs like iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA - Free Report) can heave a sigh of relief for a while (read: Aerospace ETFs Rise on China's Approval to UTX-COL Deal).
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