Value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment. After all, who wouldn’t want to find stocks that are either flying under the radar and are compelling buys, or offer up tantalizing discounts when compared to fair value?
One way to find these companies is by looking at several key metrics and financial ratios, many of which are crucial in the value stock selection process. Let’s put HollyFrontier Corporation (HFC - Free Report) stock into this equation and find out if it is a good choice for value-oriented investors right now, or if investors subscribing to this methodology should look elsewhere for top picks:
A key metric that value investors always look at is the Price to Earnings Ratio, or PE for short. This shows us how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings in a given stock, and is easily one of the most popular financial ratios in the world. The best use of the PE ratio is to compare the stock’s current PE ratio with: a) where this ratio has been in the past; b) how it compares to the average for the industry/sector; and c) how it compares to the market as a whole.
On this front, HollyFrontier has a trailing twelve months PE ratio of 4.19, as you can see in the chart below:
This level actually compares quite favorably with the market at large, as the PE for the S&P 500 stands at about 17.5. Also, if we focus on the long-term PE trend, HollyFrontier’s current PE level puts it way below its midpoint of 15.41 over the past five years.
Further, the stock’s PE compares quite favorably with the Oils-Energy Market’s trailing twelve months PE ratio, which stands at 14.1. This indicates that the stock is quite undervalued right now, compared to its peers.
However, HollyFrontier and gas has a forward PE ratio (price relative to this year’s earnings) of 9.15, which is higher than the current level. So, it is fair to expect an increase in the share price in the times ahead.
Another key metric to note is the Price/Sales ratio. This approach compares a given stock’s price to its total sales, where a lower reading is generally considered better. Some people like this metric more than other value-focused ones because it looks at sales, something that is far harder to manipulate with accounting tricks than earnings.
Right now, HollyFrontier has a P/S ratio of just 0.43. This is lower than the S&P 500 average, which comes in at 3.14 right now. Also, as we can see in the chart below, this stands below the highs for this stock in particular over the past few years.
Broad Value Outlook
In aggregate, HollyFrontier currently has a Value Score of A, putting it into the top 20% of all stocks we cover from this look. This makes HollyFrontier a solid choice for value investors.
What About the Stock Overall?
Though HollyFrontier might be a good choice for value investors, there are plenty of other factors to consider before investing in this name. In particular, it is worth noting that the company has a Growth Score of A and a Momentum Score of D. This gives HFC a Zacks VGM score — or its overarching fundamental grade — of A. (You can read more about the Zacks Style Scores here >>)
Meanwhile, the company’s recent earnings estimates have been mixed at best. The current quarter has seen three upward and three downward revisions in the past sixty days, while the full year estimate has seen two upward revisions versus seven downward revision in the same time period.
This has had a mixed impact on the consensus estimate as the current quarter consensus estimate has remained stable over the past two months, while the full year estimate has dipped 14.5%. You can see the consensus estimate trend and recent price action for the stock in the chart below:
This mixed analyst sentiment is the reason why the stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and why we are looking for in-line performance from the company in the near term.
HollyFrontier is an inspired choice for value investors, as it is hard to beat its incredible lineup of statistics on this front. Despite, a strong industry rank (among Top 42% of more than 250 industries), with a Zacks Rank #3, it is hard to get too excited about the stock.
In fact, over the past two years, the broader industry has clearly outperformed the market at large, as you can see below:
So, despite a satisfactory past industry performance, value investors might want to wait for estimates and analyst sentiment to turn around in this name first, but once that happens, this stock could be a compelling pick.
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