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UDR (UDR) Down 0.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for UDR (UDR - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UDR due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

UDR Tops Q1 FFO and Revenue Estimates, Revises '19 Outlook

UDR’s first-quarter 2019 FFO per share of 51 cents surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a whisker. The figure comes in higher than the prior-year quarter reported tally of 47 cents.

Revenues from rental income in the reported quarter climbed approximately 7% year over year to $267.9 million. Further, the figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $267.1 million.

Results reflect year-over-year growth in same-store NOI. However, weighted average same-store physical occupancy declined on a year-over-year basis.

Inside the Headlines

During the first quarter, same-store revenues increased 3.8% year over year. However, same-store expenses flared up 3%. Consequently, same-store NOI improved 4.1% year over year. This residential REIT’s weighted average same-store physical occupancy shrunk 10 basis points (bps) year over year to 96.8%. The first-quarter annualized-rate of turnover contracted 110 bps from the prior-year period to 39.2%.

During the quarter, UDR acquired four apartment communities consisting of 1,110 homes and two development sites. The company shelled out $402.9 million, including debt payoffs, for these purchases.

At the end of the first quarter, UDR’s development pipeline aggregated $747.9 million at its pro-rata ownership interest, out of which, 96% has already been funded.

As of Mar 31, 2019, the company had around $1 billion of liquidity through a combination of cash and undrawn capacity on its credit facilities. Additionally, its total debt was $3.6 billion as of the same date.

Portfolio Activity

At the end of the reported quarter, the company’s Developer Capital Program (DCP) investment, including accrued return, totaled $213.1 million.

Guidance

The company has issued estimates for second-quarter 2019. For the current quarter, UDR projects FFO per share to be in the 50-52 cents range.

The FFO per share for 2019 is expected in the band of $2.05-$2.09 as compared to the previous outlook of $2.03-$2.07. Moreover, the company anticipates same-store NOI to be up 3.25-4.25% for the ongoing year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, UDR has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, UDR has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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