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Why Is McKesson (MCK) Down 4.8% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for McKesson (MCK - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is McKesson due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

McKesson Q4 Earnings Beat, Revenues Miss Estimates

McKesson Corporation’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2019 earnings of $3.69 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.8%. Further, the bottom line improved 5.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Revenues came in at $52.43 billion, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.9% but improved 1.6% year over year.

FY19 at a Glance

Full-year adjusted earnings per share of $13.57 improved 7.5% from $12.62 a year ago. The reported figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.55.

Revenues in fiscal 2019 grossed $214.31 billion, up 2.9% from fiscal 2018. This figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $215.3 billion.

Fiscal 2019 cash flow from operations totaled $4 billion and free cash flow amounted to $3.5 billion. McKesson ended the year with cash and cash equivalents of $3 billion.

In fiscal 2019, McKesson returned $1.9 billion to shareholders via share buyback and dividends.

Q4 Segmental Analysis

Revenues at the U.S. Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions segment totaled $40.89 billion, up 2.9% year over year. Per management, the upside was primarily driven by market growth.

At the European Pharmaceutical Solutions segment, revenues amounted to $6.76 billion, down 5.8% year over year. However, the metric rose 2% at constant currency (cc).

Revenues at the Medical-Surgical Solutions segment amounted to $1.96 billion, up 13.3% year over year. Acquisition and growth in the Primary Care and Lab Solutions businesses drove the upside.

Revenues at the Other segment were $2.82 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, down 5.8% year over year and 1% at cc.

Margins

Gross profit in the reported quarter was $3.2 billion, up 4.1% on a year-over-year basis. Meanwhile, gross margin was 6.1% of net revenues, up 20 bps.

Operating loss in the quarter was $569 million, considerably narrower than the year-ago quarter’s loss of $944 million.

The U.S. Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions segment reported adjusted operating profit of $752 million. Adjusted operating margin was 1.8% at the segment.

Adjusted operating profit at the European Pharmaceutical Solutions segment amounted to $23 million, while adjusted operating margin was 0.3%.

The Medical-Surgical segment had adjusted operating profit of $172 million. Adjusted operating margin was 8.8% at the segment.

Adjusted operating profit was $258 million at the Other segment.

Fiscal 2020 Guidance

For fiscal 2020, McKesson expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of $13.85-$14.45.

The company expects to deliver low to mid-single digit percent revenue growth in fiscal 2020.

Adjusted income from operations is anticipated to decline in the range of flat to low-single digit percent.

Foreign currency exchange rate movement is projected to have a net neutral impact to adjusted earnings per share on a year-over-year basis.

Free cash flow is projected to range between $2.8 billion and $3.0 billion.

Adjusted corporate expenses are estimated to range between $725 million and $775 million.

Cost Savings Target Update

The company now anticipates generating around $400-$500 million (up from the previously guided range of $300-$400 million that was announced on Oct 25, 2018) in annual pre-tax savings by the end of fiscal 2021.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, McKesson has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, McKesson has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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