Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2019 results on Jul 30, after market close. The company delivered positive surprise in the last four quarters.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Premiums in the to-be reported quarter are likely to rise on better pricing, renewal price increases, increase in new business written, higher level of insured exposure and disciplined expansion of Cincinnati Re. Also, the company’s agent-focused business model is likely to add to the upside.
An improved rate environment will likely aid investment income.
These are expected to drive top-line improvement in the to-be reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.5 billion, indicating an upside of 5.2% from the year-ago reported figure. A benign catastrophe environment is likely to aid underwriting profitability. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for combined ratio is pegged at 99%.
Total benefits and expenses are likely to increase mainly due to higher insurance loss and contract holders’ benefits, underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses. This, in turn, might weigh on operating margin.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings stands at 64 cents, indicating nearly 21% decrease from the year-ago reported figure.
What Our Quantitative Model Indicates
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Cincinnati Financial is likely to beat on earnings this season. This is because the stock does not have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold).
Earnings ESP: Cincinnati Financial has an Earnings ESP of -5.51%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of 60 cents is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 64 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Zacks Rank: Cincinnati Financial has a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings surprise.
We caution against Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stocks to Consider
Some stocks from the insurance industry with the right combination of elements to surpass estimates this time around are as follows:
Markel Corporation (MKL - Free Report) is set to report second-quarter earnings on Jul 30. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.60% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on Aug 1.
Alleghany Corporation (Y - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on Aug 6.
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