Friday, August 30, 2019
On this final trading day before the long Labor Day weekend, we expect low volumes overall on what looks to be the strongest trading week since June. Mixed data on income and spending from July fills out the end of the week.
Personal Income from last month came in beneath expectations at 0.1% (expectations were for 0.3%), well beneath the 0.5% reported in the month of June. These figures have been creeping up nicely over the past several months, but we will keep an eye on whether this slowdown is temporary or part of something significant.
Consumer Spending was right in-line with estimates: +0.6% versus 0.6% expected. This doubles the 0.3% reported for June, though again, we’d like to see data from a wider vantage point before concluding new spending trends overall. The consumer has, however, been a major catalyst in economic growth — in just about every metric reported this summer, the consumer has done his or her part in pushing numbers to higher levels.
Speaking of higher levels, Core Inflation numbers were also reported this morning, with the headline reaching +0.2%. This represents an in-line read from estimates, also at 0.2%, and consistent with the 0.2% reported in June. Here we see a continuation of inflation metrics upticking very modestly — a condition we’ve grown accustomed to over the past several months, when many analysts were expecting overall inflation to begin picking up its pace.
Next week will be holiday-shortened, but will have no shortage of important economic data, concluding with a monthly jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics a week from today. This will help the Fed make its decision whether to once again lower interest rates in the weeks to follow.
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