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Affiliated Managers (AMG) Up 1.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Affiliated Managers Group (AMG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Affiliated Managers due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Affiliated Managers Q3 Earnings Beat, Revenues Down

Affiliated Managers’ third-quarter 2019 economic earnings of $3.16 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.14. However, the figure declined 8.4% year over year.

Results benefited from decline in operating expenses and robust liquidity position. However, lower revenues and fall in AUM balance were the undermining factors.

Economic net income was $159.4 million, down 13.4% from the prior-year quarter.

Revenues, AUM & Expenses Down

Total revenues fell 8.7% year over year to $549 million. However, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $542.5 million.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization were $206.5 million, down 13.2% from the year-ago quarter.

Total expenses decreased 11.4% to $412.6 million. Lower compensation and related expenses, and selling, general and administrative costs primarily led to the decline.

As of Sep 30, 2019, total AUM was $750.7 billion, down 9.5% year over year. Net outflows of $19.7 billion hurt AUM.

Capital & Liquidity Position Decent

As of Sep 30, 2019, Affiliated Managers had $402.5 million in cash and cash equivalents compared with $565.5 million as of Dec 31, 2018. Notably, the company had $1.79 billion of debt, down 2.1% from the Dec 31, 2018 level.

Shareholders’ equity as of Sep 30, 2019, was $3.07 billion, down from $3.46 billion as of Dec 31, 2018.

Share Repurchase Update

During the third quarter, the company repurchased shares worth $110 million.

Fourth-quarter 2019 Outlook

Management expects adjusted EBITDA to average AUM to be in the range of 10.5-12.5 bps. This is based on the assumptions of divestiture of BlueMountain, net performance fees of 20-60 cents per share and repositioning charges of 15-30 cents per share.

Interest expenses are expected to be $19 million. The company’s share of reported amortization and impairments are expected to be nearly $68 million.

Adjusted weighted average share count is estimated to be 49 million.

GAAP tax rate is expected to be 25%. Additionally, cash tax rate will be favorably impacted by one-time benefit of roughly $50 million related to the BlueMountain transaction. Excluding this, cash tax rate is expected to be nearly 20%.

Intangible-related deferred taxes are expected to be approximately $53 million and includes the above-mentioned one-time charge.

The company is targeting share repurchases of $100 million or more.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review. The consensus estimate has shifted 5.34% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Affiliated Managers has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Affiliated Managers has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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