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Retail Sales the Latest Record Low; Plus C, BAC, GS & More
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Wednesday, April 15, 2020
Retail Sales for the month of March was the latest economic read to plummet to all-time lows this morning: -8.7% was worse than the lowest in the range of estimates, and far below the upwardly revised -0.4% reported for February. The previous record, back in late 2008, was -3.9%. These Retail Sales figures have been compiled monthly since 1992, and indicate that the impact of coronavirus on the domestic economy may be worse than initially thought.
Looking under the hood, ex-autos and ex-autos & gas figures (stripping out more typically volatile month-over-month sales numbers) came in at -4.5% and -3.1%, respectively — both better than consensus estimates. The Control figure produced a positive output, at +1.7%. Losses came largely from Clothing Stores, which were down 50% in March. Healthcare & Personal Care, on the other hand, were +1.3%. Here we begin to see where the coronavirus pandemic is selecting economic winners and losers.
Another record smashed this morning was the Empire State report for April: -78.2, well beneath the -21.5 posted for March. This survey has been conducted monthly since July 2001, and its previous all-time low was -34.3, in the throes of the Great Recession in 2009. Again, as we saw in Retail Sales this morning and Initial Jobless Claims over the past three weeks, these new lows are anything but marginal; they are falling off the edge of a table — far.
Industrial Production (IP) for March sank to -5.4%, also reported this morning. This is well beneath the -4.1% expected and the +0.6% reported for February. The last time a month-over-month IP read fell this far was back in January 1946 — more than 74 years ago. Capacity Utilization of 72.7% was also beneath its estimate of 73.8% and the 77.0% put up the previous month.
Finally, Citigroup (C - Free Report) outperformed earnings estimates for its Q1, $1.06 per share versus 89 cents expected, on $20.73 billion in quarterly revenues which surpassed expectations by 8.63%. Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell)-rated Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) also put up big positive surprises: $3.11 per share on $8.74 billion in revenues, compared with $2.83 per share and $6.75 billion, respectively. Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) , also a Zacks Rank #5, posted mixed Q1 results: 40 cents per share versus 42 cents expected, on a +0.61% top-line surprise to $22.77 billion.
United Healthcare (UNH - Free Report) also released its Q1 report this morning, topping expectations to $3.72 per share (from a Zacks consensus $3.64) and just a penny beneath the year-ago quarter’s $3.73 per share reported. Sales came in a little light of expectations to $64.42 billion, though up from the $60.31 billion reported a year ago.
These Q1 numbers, however, are of the least overall consequence in recent memory, compared with the ongoing coronavirus crisis and its subsequent depletion of the U.S. (and global) economy. For sure they will paint a picture that will be useful in aggregate, but wins or losses are being met with near-equal disregard by the market at this stage.
Computer-driven High-Frequency Traders (HFTs) manipulate the market thousands of times a day – and their gains come at the expense of human investors.Zacks has mounted a Counterstrike to take advantage of the best profit opportunities created by HFTs. Access to these recommendations must be limited.
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Retail Sales the Latest Record Low; Plus C, BAC, GS & More
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
Retail Sales for the month of March was the latest economic read to plummet to all-time lows this morning: -8.7% was worse than the lowest in the range of estimates, and far below the upwardly revised -0.4% reported for February. The previous record, back in late 2008, was -3.9%. These Retail Sales figures have been compiled monthly since 1992, and indicate that the impact of coronavirus on the domestic economy may be worse than initially thought.
Looking under the hood, ex-autos and ex-autos & gas figures (stripping out more typically volatile month-over-month sales numbers) came in at -4.5% and -3.1%, respectively — both better than consensus estimates. The Control figure produced a positive output, at +1.7%. Losses came largely from Clothing Stores, which were down 50% in March. Healthcare & Personal Care, on the other hand, were +1.3%. Here we begin to see where the coronavirus pandemic is selecting economic winners and losers.
Another record smashed this morning was the Empire State report for April: -78.2, well beneath the -21.5 posted for March. This survey has been conducted monthly since July 2001, and its previous all-time low was -34.3, in the throes of the Great Recession in 2009. Again, as we saw in Retail Sales this morning and Initial Jobless Claims over the past three weeks, these new lows are anything but marginal; they are falling off the edge of a table — far.
Industrial Production (IP) for March sank to -5.4%, also reported this morning. This is well beneath the -4.1% expected and the +0.6% reported for February. The last time a month-over-month IP read fell this far was back in January 1946 — more than 74 years ago. Capacity Utilization of 72.7% was also beneath its estimate of 73.8% and the 77.0% put up the previous month.
Finally, Citigroup (C - Free Report) outperformed earnings estimates for its Q1, $1.06 per share versus 89 cents expected, on $20.73 billion in quarterly revenues which surpassed expectations by 8.63%. Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell)-rated Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) also put up big positive surprises: $3.11 per share on $8.74 billion in revenues, compared with $2.83 per share and $6.75 billion, respectively. Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) , also a Zacks Rank #5, posted mixed Q1 results: 40 cents per share versus 42 cents expected, on a +0.61% top-line surprise to $22.77 billion.
United Healthcare (UNH - Free Report) also released its Q1 report this morning, topping expectations to $3.72 per share (from a Zacks consensus $3.64) and just a penny beneath the year-ago quarter’s $3.73 per share reported. Sales came in a little light of expectations to $64.42 billion, though up from the $60.31 billion reported a year ago.
These Q1 numbers, however, are of the least overall consequence in recent memory, compared with the ongoing coronavirus crisis and its subsequent depletion of the U.S. (and global) economy. For sure they will paint a picture that will be useful in aggregate, but wins or losses are being met with near-equal disregard by the market at this stage.
For more on C’s earnings, click here.
For more on GS’ earnings, click here.
For more on BAC’s earnings, click here.
For more on UNH’s earnings, click here.
Mark Vickery
Senior Editor
Questions or comments about this article and/or its author? Click here>>
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