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Will Decline in Assets Hurt Legg Mason (LM) in Q4 Earnings?
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Legg Mason is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2020 (ended Mar 31) results on Apr 29, before market open. The company’s earnings are expected to have increased year over year.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Higher assets under management (AUM) drove its performance in the same period. However, equity outflows were a major drag.
Legg Mason has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the positive surprise being 13.8%, on average.
Weak Markets: Performance of equity markets was disappointing during the March-end quarter, thanks to the outbreak of novel coronavirus on a global scale. The S&P 500 Index fell 20% in the quarter. Moreover, the index measuring international equity performance — the MSCI EAFE — delivered negative net returns of 22.8% in the first quarter. This might have affected the California-based asset manager’s performance to a large extent.
Lower AUM: Per the monthly metrics data published by Legg Mason, preliminary total AUM as of Mar 31, 2020, was $730.8 billion, down 9% from the Dec 31, 2019-level. The fall seems to be majorly due to net outflows in fixed income and equity. Hence, performance fees and investment management fees are likely to have recorded declines in the quarter.
Decline in Revenues: Investment advisory fees, which constitute a significant portion of the company’s revenues, might have decreased in the fiscal fourth quarter. The consensus estimate for investment management fees from funds indicates a fall of 3.7% from the prior-quarter reported number. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $69 million for distribution and service fees suggests a 3% fall sequentially in the quarter.
Controlled Costs: Legg Mason initiated a restructuring to reduce costs, which is expected to have lent support in the fiscal fourth quarter. Also, management expects comp ratio to have declined on account of reduction in seasonal expenses and savings from its strategic restructuring.
Here is what our quantitative model predicts:
According to our quantitative model, we cannot predict an earnings beat for Legg Mason this time around. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better for this to happen, which is not the case here as elaborated below.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Legg Mason is currently pegged at 0.00%.
Zacks Rank: Legg Mason currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
The company’s activities in the fiscal fourth quarter were inadequate to win analysts’ confidence. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings of 86 cents was revised downward over the last 30 days. Nevertheless, the figure implies a rise of 22.9% from the year-ago reported figure.
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB - Free Report) is likely to release earnings figures around Apr 30. The company, which carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present, has an Earnings ESP of +6.49%.
The Earnings ESP for Moody's Corporation (MCO - Free Report) is +0.18% and the stock carries a Zacks Rank of 3, currently. The company is expected to report quarterly numbers around Apr 30.
Just Released: Zacks’ 7 Best Stocks for Today
Experts extracted 7 stocks from the list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys that has beaten the market more than 2X over with a stunning average gain of +24.1% per year.
These 7 were selected because of their superior potential for immediate breakout.
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Will Decline in Assets Hurt Legg Mason (LM) in Q4 Earnings?
Legg Mason is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2020 (ended Mar 31) results on Apr 29, before market open. The company’s earnings are expected to have increased year over year.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Higher assets under management (AUM) drove its performance in the same period. However, equity outflows were a major drag.
Legg Mason has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the positive surprise being 13.8%, on average.
Legg Mason, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Legg Mason, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Legg Mason, Inc. Quote
Factors at Play
Weak Markets: Performance of equity markets was disappointing during the March-end quarter, thanks to the outbreak of novel coronavirus on a global scale. The S&P 500 Index fell 20% in the quarter. Moreover, the index measuring international equity performance — the MSCI EAFE — delivered negative net returns of 22.8% in the first quarter. This might have affected the California-based asset manager’s performance to a large extent.
Lower AUM: Per the monthly metrics data published by Legg Mason, preliminary total AUM as of Mar 31, 2020, was $730.8 billion, down 9% from the Dec 31, 2019-level. The fall seems to be majorly due to net outflows in fixed income and equity. Hence, performance fees and investment management fees are likely to have recorded declines in the quarter.
Decline in Revenues: Investment advisory fees, which constitute a significant portion of the company’s revenues, might have decreased in the fiscal fourth quarter. The consensus estimate for investment management fees from funds indicates a fall of 3.7% from the prior-quarter reported number. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $69 million for distribution and service fees suggests a 3% fall sequentially in the quarter.
Controlled Costs: Legg Mason initiated a restructuring to reduce costs, which is expected to have lent support in the fiscal fourth quarter. Also, management expects comp ratio to have declined on account of reduction in seasonal expenses and savings from its strategic restructuring.
Here is what our quantitative model predicts:
According to our quantitative model, we cannot predict an earnings beat for Legg Mason this time around. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better for this to happen, which is not the case here as elaborated below.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Legg Mason is currently pegged at 0.00%.
Zacks Rank: Legg Mason currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
The company’s activities in the fiscal fourth quarter were inadequate to win analysts’ confidence. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings of 86 cents was revised downward over the last 30 days. Nevertheless, the figure implies a rise of 22.9% from the year-ago reported figure.
Stocks to Consider
First BanCorp. (FBP - Free Report) is slated to release results on Apr 30. The company has an Earnings ESP of +8.51% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB - Free Report) is likely to release earnings figures around Apr 30. The company, which carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present, has an Earnings ESP of +6.49%.
The Earnings ESP for Moody's Corporation (MCO - Free Report) is +0.18% and the stock carries a Zacks Rank of 3, currently. The company is expected to report quarterly numbers around Apr 30.
Just Released: Zacks’ 7 Best Stocks for Today
Experts extracted 7 stocks from the list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys that has beaten the market more than 2X over with a stunning average gain of +24.1% per year.
These 7 were selected because of their superior potential for immediate breakout.
See these time-sensitive tickers now >>