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ExxonMobil (XOM) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) is set to report first-quarter 2020 results on May 1, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company came up with earnings of 41 cents per share that missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents due to weaker margins in the refining and chemical business.

Notably, ExxonMobil missed earnings estimates twice in the last four reported quarters, delivering an average negative surprise of 4.21%, as shown in the chart below.

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Exxon Mobil Corporation price-eps-surprise | Exxon Mobil Corporation Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the announcement.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings of 4 cents has seen one upward revision and six downward movements in the past 30 days. The figure suggests a year-over-year decline of 92.7%.

Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $53.8 billion, indicating a decline of 15.4% from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Note

Weak global energy demand owing to the coronavirus outbreak mostly led oil prices to trade in the bearish territory, especially in the last two months of the March quarter. The last month saw the lowest price in first-quarter 2020 since OPEC and Russia failed to agree on how much oil production to cut amid the pandemic. Thus, weak crude prices are likely to have hurt ExxonMobil’s upstream operations in the first quarter, in both the international and domestic market.

Notably, the consensus estimate for the company’s earnings from Non-U.S. upstream operations is pegged at $1,136 million, suggesting a decline from $2,780 million in the year-earlier quarter.

Moreover, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the firm’s bottom line from domestic upstream operations is pinned at a loss of $461 million against a profit of $96 million in the year-earlier quarter.

However, for worldwide daily refinery throughput, the consensus estimate is pegged at 4,076 thousand barrel per day (MBbl/D), suggesting an increase from 3,886 MBbl/D in the year-ago quarter. Higher throughput is likely to have aided the company’s downstream operations in the quarter under review.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ExxonMobil this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here as you will see below.  

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 4 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: ExxonMobil currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Though an earnings beat looks uncertain for ExxonMobil, here are a few firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model. These have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

Viper Energy Partners LP (VNOM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +63.08% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 4, after the closing bell. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Concho Resources Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +3.48% and a Zacks Rank of 3. It is scheduled to report first-quarter results on Apr 30, after the closing bell.

Laredo Petroleum, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +2.50% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 6, after the closing bell.

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