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Imbruvica to Offset Humira Woes in AbbVie (ABBV) Q1 Earnings?

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Sales of AbbVie, Inc.’s (ABBV - Free Report) flagship product, Humira are expected to have continued their downward trend in the first quarter of 2020 in international markets. The drug’s sales growth decelerated in 2019 given the launch of biosimilars in Europe. The drug is approved for several inflammatory indications and generates more than half of the company’s revenues. However, sales in the United States are likely to have increased driven by rising demand trends in the to-be-reported quarter.

AbbVie’s shares have declined 6.6% so far this year against the industry’s increase of 0.9%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humira stands at $4.38 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for U.S. sales is pegged at $3.47 billion while that for international sales is $908 million.

Sales of its key oncology medicine, Imbruvica are likely to have been driven by increased adoption rates in approved indications, especially front-line chronic lymphocytic leukemia (“CLL”). The drug is marketed in partnership with J&J (JNJ - Free Report) globally. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the drug is pegged at $1.26 billion.

Sales of another leukemia drug, Venclexta/Venclyxto were strong in 2019 driven by continued uptake in the broad relapsed/refractory CLL setting and the recently approved indications for first-line CLL and AML. The trend most likely continued in the first quarter. AbbVie markets Venclexta in partnership with Roche (RHHBY - Free Report) . The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the drug is pegged at $245 million.

In March, a combination regimen of Venclyxto received approval for a label expansion to include previously-untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients in Europe. However, we don’t expect the label expansion to have any impact on the drug’s first quarter sales.

Sales of other drugs like Duodopa, Creon and Lupron must have increased in the quarter.

However, AbbVie’s new HCV drug, Mavyret recorded a decline in 2019, primarily due to lower patient volumes in certain international markets and competitive dynamics in the United States. We do not expect to see an improvement in first-quarter results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the HCV segment, mainly comprising Mavyret, stands at $667 million.

Skyrizi and Rinvoq were approved for treating plaque psoriasis and moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis, respectively, last year in the United States. Rinvoq was also approved in the EU in December 2019. Both Skyrizi and Rinvoq were off to an impressive start. Sales of both the drugs improved sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2019. We expect the positive trend to have continued in the first quarter of 2020. Rinvoq is expected to have demonstrated strong demand in Europe during the first quarter of 2020 as well.

Overall, in the first quarter, higher sales of Humira in the United States, and Imbruvica and Venclexta are likely to have made up for lower sales of Humira in international markets. Read more: AbbVie  to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?)

AbbVie currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

AbbVie Inc. Price and Consensus

 

AbbVie Inc. Price and Consensus

AbbVie Inc. price-consensus-chart | AbbVie Inc. Quote

Upcoming Release

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is set to report first-quarter results on May 6. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.08% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can also uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

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