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Mosaic (MOS) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2020 results after the closing bell on May 4.

The fertilizer maker missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 727.8%, on average.

Mosaic’s shares have lost 53.5% in the past year compared with the industry’s 32.5% decline.



Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What to Expect in Q1

Mosaic released monthly sales volume figures for its segments in January and February.

In the Potash unit, it recorded sales volume of 728,000 tons in January and 489,000 tons in February.  The company noted that the timing of product pricing and the mix of products shipped in North America impacted the net pricing of potash in February.

In Phosphates, the company reported 599,000 tons in January and 532,000 tons in February. Average revenue per ton of product sold decreased in February on lower freight and revenues associated with Miski Mayo, the company noted.

In the Mosaic Fertilizantes unit, sales volumes were 752,000 tons in January and 737,000 tons in February.

Earlier this year, Mosaic stated that it expects China to be a major factor for phosphate market fundamentals this year in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. Per the company, a significant chunk of phosphate production in Hubei province has been idled or curtailed due to the coronavirus outbreak. The company expects the decline in supply and limited new capacity in other parts of the world to contribute to persistent tightening of phosphate market fundamentals.

What do the Estimates Indicate?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mosaic’s first-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $1,641 million, which suggests a decline of 13.6% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Phosphates segment is currently pegged at $692 million, which indicates a decline of 14.1% year over year.

Moreover, the consensus mark for net sales in the Potash segment is currently pegged at $410 million, which calls for a fall of 18.7% year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment is currently pegged at $452 million, which calls for a decline of 47.7% on a sequential basis.

The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise

 

The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise

The Mosaic Company price-eps-surprise | The Mosaic Company Quote

 

Zacks Model

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Mosaic this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Mosaic is -77.78%. The Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are currently pegged at a loss of 8 cents and a loss of 5 cents, respectively. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
 
Zacks Rank: Mosaic carries a Zacks Rank #3.  

Stocks Likely to Beat Estimates

Here are some companies that you may want to consider as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG - Free Report) , scheduled to release second-quarter fiscal 2020 earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +1.49% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM - Free Report) , scheduled to release first-quarter 2020 results on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +2.58% and carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Domtar Corporation , slated to release first-quarter 2020 results on May 8, has an Earnings ESP of +39.81% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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