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What's in the Cards for Commercial Metals' (CMC) Q3 Earnings?

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Commercial Metals Company (CMC - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2020 results on Jun 18, before the opening bell.

Which Way are the Estimates Headed?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter revenues stands at $1.26 billion, suggesting a decline of 21.3% from the prior-year reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is pegged at 24 cents for the quarter, indicating a year-over-year plunge of 40.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Q2 Performance

In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and improved year over year. However, the top line missed the consensus mark and declined year over year. The company surpassed estimates in all of the trailing four quarters, the average positive surprise being 12.8%.

Key Factors

Increased spending on construction activity in the United States and Eastern Europe continues to grow led by state and local highway projects, translating strong demand for rebar. This is likely to have contributed to Commercial Metals’ fiscal third-quarter performance. Moreover, solid fabrication backlog, strong bidding activity and an upbeat rebar-margin environment are likely to have benefited the company in the quarter under review.

However, weak demand and production shutdowns from automakers due to the coronavirus pandemic have adversely impacted steel consumption.. The pandemic has hit the United States hard, straining steel prices. This is likely to have hurt the fiscal third-quarter margins. Further, the weak oil and gas market might have been a deterrent.

Segment Projections

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Americas Recycling segment’s revenues is pegged at $180 million, suggesting a decline of 37.7% from the year-ago quarter. Ferrous tons shipped during the quarter to be reported are estimated at 445,000 tons, down 25.4%. Average ferrous selling price is projected at $173 per ton, down 31.3% from the prior-year quarter, reflecting a challenging price environment. The Zacks Consensus estimate for non-ferrous shipments is projected at 55,000 tons down 8.3% from the prior year. Average non-ferrous selling price is estimated at $1,644 per ton, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 19.7%.  

For the Americas Mills segment revenues, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pinned at $641 million, suggesting a year-on-year decline of 26% from the prior-year quarter’s $867 million. Total tons shipped are estimated at 1071 tons, down 13.3% from the prior-year quarter. Metal margin is projected at $329, down 14.7% from the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Americas Fabrication segment revenues is pegged at $522 million for the to-be-reported quarter, indicating a 17.5% fall from the $633 million witnessed in third-quarter fiscal 2019. The segment is expected to have shipped around 375,000 tons, down 20% year over year. Total selling price is projected at $967 per short ton, up 4.5% year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the International Mill segment’s revenues is currently pinned at $132 million for the fiscal third quarter, suggesting a decline of 36.8% from the prior-year quarter. Shipments are estimated at 300 tons, down 1% from the last year. Selling price is projected at $397, down 24.2%. Costs are projected at $218, down 24.3% from the prior-year quarter. Metal margins are expected at $179, down 24.2% year on year. Metal margins remain under pressure due to elevated import levels.

Commercial Metals Company Price and EPS Surprise

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Commercial Metals this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Commercial Metals is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: Commercial Metals currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Price Performance

Commercial Metal’s shares have gained 23.1% in the past year, as against the industry’s decline of 23.3%.



Stocks Worth a Look

Here are some stocks worth considering as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Enerpac Tool Group Corp. (EPAC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +36.17% and holds a Zacks Rank of 2, at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.13% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

Accenture plc (ACN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.65% and carries a Zacks Rank #3, currently.

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