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Zacks Industry Rank Analysis

Money in the Bank

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By: Dirk van Dijk
August 17, 2011 | Comment(s): 0
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SLM | METR | HTLF | DFS | EBTX
Industry Rank Analysis 8-17-11

Normally I like to look for either one very large industry that is doing particularly well or poorly, or a collection of smaller related industries that are. When a large number of very large related industries are also doing fairly well -- not topping the charts, but all in the top third -- it is also worth taking note of.

There are, however, some economic trends that cut across the conventional sector lines. That is particularly true if not all that long ago, the industry looked like a basket case.

That is the case this week. We break the domestic banks down into six different groups -- five regions plus what we call the Major Regionals, but in the past might have been called the Money Centers. Perhaps a better current term for the group now would be the “Too Big to Fails” (TBTF).

Today I am highlighting the smaller regional banks, plus two very closely-related industries, the Savings and Loans and the Consumer Loan Companies. The TBTFs are squarely in the middle of the pack, with an average rating of 3.00.

Zacks Industry Classifications
 
The Zacks industry classifications are very fine, with 256 different industries tracked. It is not particularly noteworthy if a single small industry shows up doing well; a single firm with good news can propel a one or two firm industry to the top (or bottom) of the charts.

It is interesting when you see a cluster of similar industries at the top of the list. The same holds true for the bottom of the list. The definition of size that matters here is not the total sales or market capitalization but the number of companies in the "industry."

Smaller Regional Bank Groups


The Consumer Loan companies are the smallest of the seven “industries” I am highlighting today, with 11 firms. That is still an above-average size for an industry. It is currently in 11th place, an improvement of one spot from last week, with an average rank of 2.36, unchanged from last week.

The worst of the group is the second smallest at 12 firms, the Southwestern Regional Banks. It is in 80th place, an improvement of 3 spots from last week with an unchanged average rank of 2.83. Normally that would not attract my attention, but it does when all the other regional bank industries are also doing well.

The other five are all huge in Zacks industry terms. Again, it is the number of firms in the industry, not the total market capitalization we are talking about here.

The best of the bunch are the Western Regional Banks, in 19th spot, an improvement of 9 places from last week as the average rank dipped to 2.45 from 2.53. For an industry with 40 firms in it, that is an impressive performance.

The Midwestern Regional Banks are in 35th place, improving seven spots with an average score of 2.58, down from 2.61 last week. That industry has 38 firms in it.

The Northeastern Regional Banks are in 58th place, slipping one spot even though the average rank improved to 2.68 from 2.70 last week. It has 57 firms. Right on its heels are the Savings and Loans, in 59th place, down three spots on an unchanged average rank of 2.69.

The largest of these industries is the Southeastern Regional Banks, with 75 firms. It is in 61st place, an improvement of 10 spots as the average rank dipped slightly to 2.75 from 2.76.

A Multitude of Zacks Rank Buys

All told, or the 290 firms in these industries, 39 (23.6%) of them hold the enviable Zacks #1 Rank, and an additional 69 (23.6%) have Zacks #2 Ranks. If the Zacks Ranks were random, then one would expect that 5% of the names in an industry would be #1s, and 15% would be #2s. This is by far the biggest total number of companies I have shown on these two lists in a very long time.

The vast majority of the number ones and twos are very small firms, only two could plausibly be called large caps -- Discover Financial (DFS - Analyst Report) and SLM Corp, aka Sallie Mae (SLM - Analyst Report) -- and even they are more like mid-caps. Only eleven others on the two lists even break the $1 billion market cap level.

On the other hand, twenty nine of them don’t even break the $100 million market-cap level. That does not however mean that they can’t be good investments. This is a case, though, where you might want to take a package approach -- buying five or six small positions rather than one or two large ones.

The valuations are all over the lot, but for the most part reasonable. Particularly if you are willing to look out to 2012 earnings. 

One Thing to Keep in Mind

The biggest concern among the smaller banks has been the quality of the loans that they have made in the past. In bad economic times, people tend to default on their loans much more frequently than in good times. Many of the smaller banks have been very exposed to the real estate sector as well as to the consumer.

Recently, though, the consumer credit picture has been improving as delinquencies have dropped. They are still at very high levels, but are at least moving in the right direction.

Meanwhile, the basic business of a bank is to borrow money cheaply, mostly in the form of deposits, and then to lend it out at higher rates. The Fed has made clear that it is going to keep the interest rates that banks borrow at extremely low until at least the middle of 2012. The interest rates that consumers pay have come down as well, but not by as much.

The banks then have to be able to collect what they are owed on the higher interest rate loans. That has been a huge concern over the last few years, but it looks like many of the smaller banks have made significant progress in working their way through the piles of bad debt. The lower loan loss provisions and write-offs have lead to some HUGE earnings estimate increase for both this year and next.

A Final Caveat

Most of these small firms are only covered by a handful of analysts. Thus, we might not see quite as many continued estimate increases as we do with better followed firms. One of the big reasons that an estimate in motion tends to stay in motion is that not all the analysts raise their numbers at the same time, and analysts playing “catch up” help the mean estimate to continue to rise.

That is less likely to be the case if there are just one or two analysts following the firm. Still, increases of over 50% for firms like Heartland Financial (HTLF - Snapshot Report), Metro Bancorp (METR - Snapshot Report) and Encore Bancshares (EBTX - Snapshot Report) are nothing to be sneered at, particularly when they are matched with large increases for next year as well.

If you are looking to put a bank in your portfolio, it might be a good idea to think small. These small banks, many with just a handful of branches, are not likely to be heavily exposed to things like bad European Sovereign Debt. If the bad domestic debt is being worked through, then the generosity of the Fed’s easy money policies should make the smaller banks very profitable.

It is also very likely that many of these smaller banks could be gobbled up by larger banks. While that alone is not a good reason to invest in a stock, it can be a nice kicker when it happens.

Number 1 Ranked Firms

Number 2 Ranked Firms

Company Ticker Market Cap ($ mil) P/E Using Curr FY Est P/E Using Next FY Est % Change Curr FY Est - 4 wk % Change Next FY Est - 4 wk Current Price
Discover Fin Sv DFS $12,730 6.54 7.83 2.40% 1.73% $23.33
Slm Corp SLM $7,326 7.57 7.06 5.28% 5.16% $13.89
Tfs Financial TFSL $2,665 345.6 61.71 400.00% 7.69% $8.64
Webster Finl Cp WBS $1,466 11.1 10.36 7.21% 7.58% $16.75
Texas Cap Bcshs TCBI $893 13.94 11.47 15.54% 12.21% $23.99
Wesbanco Inc WSBC $452 10.1 8.96 8.61% 7.87% $16.99
Chemical Finl CHFC $447 11.31 10.22 6.14% 3.91% $16.29
Wash Tr Bancorp WASH $330 11.11 10.18 2.62% 4.55% $20.30
Hudson Vly Hldg HVB $314 11.79 9.47 25.42% 14.64% $17.74
Eagle Bcp Inc EGBN $235 10.79 8.83 6.02% 8.25% $11.87
Territorial Bcp TBNK $234 17.01 15.77 2.69% 4.80% $19.50
Heartland Fincl HTLF $231 10.28 9.51 51.85% 10.47% $14.05
Enterprise Finl EFSC $227 8.11 8.05 15.80% 11.68% $13.08
German Amer Bcp GABC $197 10.14 9.87 13.20% 9.31% $15.65
Trico Bancshrs TCBK $187 17.03 11.6 15.48% 10.96% $11.75
Fox Chase Bancp FXCB $186 34.51 27.17 15.63% 8.05% $12.77
Home Fedl Bcp HOME $162 N/A N/A 25.00% 13.04% $9.81
Mainsource Finl MSFG $157 8.24 7.46 30.52% 15.74% $7.79
Bridge Cap Hldg BBNK $154 23.03 15.5 6.20% 5.48% $10.19
Center Bancorp CNBC $153 12.3 11.27 6.99% 3.09% $9.41
Metro Bancorp METR $148 20.01 16.25 50.94% 48.12% $10.67
Alliance Finl ALNC $144 10.8 10.59 9.14% 11.94% $30.30
West Bancorp WTBA $142 9.94 8.58 5.13% 2.15% $8.15
Hanmi Finl Cp HAFC $140 4.62 6.6 14.29% 0.00% $0.92
First Defiance FDEF $129 10.81 8.57 21.78% 6.90% $13.29
Midwestone Finl MOFG $127 10.71 9.81 24.10% 23.97% $14.71
Encore Bancshrs EBTX $126 23.96 15.77 56.41% 32.38% $10.96
Northrim Bcp NRIM $122 12.89 11.81 6.50% 3.21% $19.01
Kaiser Fedl Fin KFFG $116 13.81 12.99 2.92% 2.75% $12.15
Heritage Commrc HTBK $111 26.09 16.47 43.38% 4.39% $4.24
Access Natl Cp ANCX $86 9.05 9.25 12.27% 14.74% $8.28
C&F Finl Cp CFFI $70 6.21 N/A 20.00% N/A $22.35
North Valley Bc NOVB $67 31.42 12.18 29.17% 1.91% $9.74
Intervest Bcsh IBCA $64 7.53 6.54 0.00% 0.00% $3.01
Central Vly Com CVCY $62 10.27 8.75 33.68% 31.86% $6.52
Macatawa Bank MCBC $52 11.35 26.82 85.71% 0.00% $2.95
Republic Fst Bc FRBK $51 N/A 83.57 20.69% N/A $1.95
Newport Bcp Md NFSB $46 27.6 22.46 11.63% 5.36% $13.25
First Bus Finl FBIZ $39 6.42 5.8 23.68% 23.81% $15.08
Company Ticker Market Cap ($ mil) P/E Using Curr FY Est P/E Using Next FY Est % Change Curr FY Est - 4 wk % Change Next FY Est - 4 wk Current Price
Peoples Utd Fin PBCT $3,957 16.64 12.48 0.82% 2.78% $11.05
East West Bc EWBC $2,418 10.49 9.07 2.33% 0.56% $16.26
First Niagara FNFG $2,168 9.93 8.38 4.04% 6.56% $10.35
Credit Accept CACC $1,837 10.42 9.03 1.40% 2.38% $71.77
Capitol Fedl Fn CFFN $1,819 27.07 24.2 1.58% -0.28% $10.86
Investors Bancp ISBC $1,519 18.53 16.11 2.84% 3.92% $13.42
Hancock Hldg Co HBHC $1,262 14.51 11.05 17.85% 4.58% $28.75
Umpqua Hldgs Cp UMPQ $1,097 15.95 11.8 8.11% 6.57% $9.57
Natl Penn Bcshs NPBC $1,014 13.22 10.91 10.00% 3.20% $6.69
Bancorpsouth BXS $904 23.97 12.24 108.82% 1.87% $10.83
Commnty Bk Sys CBU $841 10.81 10.44 5.84% 4.54% $22.85
Providnt Fin Sv PFS $724 11.57 10.02 -0.39% 1.33% $11.97
Home Bancshares HOMB $662 12.93 12.3 4.52% 3.34% $23.25
Columbia Bk Sys COLB $599 17.88 15.24 14.05% 11.48% $15.16
Northfield Bncp NFBK $531 30.39 28.98 5.13% 2.38% $12.46
Oriental Finl OFG $455 8.38 6.04 56.52% 15.51% $10.05
Boston Priv Fin BPFH $444 15.24 10.23 138.74% 7.89% $5.77
Tompkins Fin Cp TMP $428 11.93 11.2 2.17% 1.08% $39.30
First Finl-Ind THFF $387 11.5 12.02 6.89% 1.03% $29.45
Commun Trust Bc CTBI $386 10.52 10.15 2.36% 2.92% $25.06
Cascade Bancorp CACB $368 10.67 129.83 14.96% 71.43% $7.79
Sandy Spring SASR $358 11.11 10.34 2.79% 0.35% $14.86
Lakeland Finl LKFN $337 11.34 9.86 4.11% 1.69% $20.81
Berkshire Hills BHLB $336 13.29 10.39 0.50% 1.05% $20.03
Southside Bancs SBSI $326 8.51 8.22 21.35% 14.76% $19.82
Stellarone Corp STEL $239 18.69 13.49 7.73% 4.57% $10.42
Bryn Mawr Bk Cp BMTC $228 11.62 9.77 1.84% 0.72% $18.18
Banner Corp BANR $225 N/A N/A 42.12% 25.46% $13.63
Great South Bcp GSBC $219 10.81 9.1 0.44% 0.37% $16.28
Sun Bancorp/Nj SNBC $213 N/A 37.93 8.87% 800.00% $2.56
Ameris Bancorp ABCB $211 27.57 12.45 85.35% 11.56% $8.89
Westfield Finl WFD $204 32.72 27.73 7.23% 5.00% $7.28
Cobiz Finl Inc COBZ $186 15.39 9.32 15.93% 5.64% $5.02
Citizens&Nrthrn CZNC $181 8.35 8.69 5.33% 2.40% $14.86
Capital City Bk CCBG $176 34.02 21.44 63.02% -2.48% $10.29
Natl Bnkshrs Va NKSH $175 10.5 10.28 2.34% 2.50% $25.30
Virginia Commrc VCBI $173 8.29 7.41 22.74% 11.88% $5.82
Bank Of Ky Finl BKYF $171 12.33 10.38 2.19% 0.00% $23.05
Omniamerican Bc OABC $168 38.24 29.48 23.33% 6.67% $14.15
Merchants Bancs MBVT $161 11.44 10.6 0.89% 2.08% $25.97
First Bcp-Nc FBNC $154 12.77 8.74 27.11% 10.29% $9.13
Cnb Finl Cp Pa CCNE $149 9.97 8.62 3.41% 0.00% $12.10
Sierra Bancorp BSRR $146 18.43 12.86 9.13% 1.24% $10.46
Essa Bancorp ESSA $137 26.52 25.27 5.19% 13.33% $10.74
Bridge Bancorp BDGE $124 12.66 11.74 4.83% 3.80% $19.25
Asta Funding ASFI $122 10.68 10.41 13.04% 48.15% $8.33
Peopl Bncp-Ohio PEBO $122 13.7 10.71 26.32% 13.16% $11.51
Compucredit Hld CCRT $118 N/A N/A 14.23% 24.85% $3.09
Amer Natl Bnksh AMNB $115 13.89 11.05 3.46% 6.62% $18.68
Heritage Fin Gp HBOS $99 452.4 47.13 0.00% 26.32% $11.31
Horizon Bncp-In HBNC $93 8.9 8.69 7.10% 3.89% $27.87
Pulaski Finl Cp PULB $72 12.64 10.43 15.56% -4.55% $6.57
Mercantile Bank MBWM $70 9.97 9.2 54.03% 15.03% $8.10
Teche Holding TSH $66 9.58 8.08 1.22% 1.28% $31.90
Bnc Bancorp BNCN $62 41.51 13.52 17.86% 1.33% $6.85
Old Point Finl OPOF $56 13.23 8.08 35.71% -17.16% $11.31
Mutualfirst Fin MFSF $55 19.82 8.85 0.00% 0.00% $7.83
Citizens South CSBC $46 N/A 15.08 43.53% 14.49% $3.97
Chesapeake Finc CPKF $45 7.22 6.83 7.78% 7.89% $14.00
Malvern Fedl Bc MLVF $43 N/A 21.51 28.33% 925.00% $7.10
Somerset Hills SOMH $42 15.94 12.97 2.13% 3.51% $7.65
Ecb Bancorp Inc ECBE $36 N/A 31.17 43.64% 166.67% $12.47
Summit State Bk SSBI $30 14.32 13.7 22.22% 12.19% $6.30
Mbt Finl Corp MBTF $22 N/A 8.67 20.51% 66.67% $1.30
Valley Finl Cp VYFC $22 5.47 N/A 6.25% N/A $4.65
Preferred Bank PFBC $20 18.83 11.67 200.00% 54.80% $7.53
First Commty Cp FCCO $20 12.79 10.02 18.99% 4.35% $6.01
Old Second Bcp OSBC $18 N/A N/A 30.26% 26.46% $1.30
Premierwest Bcp PRWT $12 N/A N/A 20.83% 30.06% $1.24

In evaluating the Zacks Industry Ranks, you want to see two things: a good overall score (low, meaning more Zacks #1 and #2 Ranked stocks than #4 or #5 Ranked stocks) and some improvement the relative position from the prior week. It is also helpful to understand exactly what the Zacks Industry Rank is.

The Zacks Industry Rank is the un-weighted average of the individual Zacks ranks of the firms in that industry. It does not matter if the stock is the 800 lb gorilla that dominates the industry or some very small niche player in the industry -- they have the same influence on the industry rank.

Also, that means that the bigger the industry in terms of number of firms, the less influence any given company has on the industry rank. It also implies that small industries, with just two or three firms, should be the ones found at either the top or the bottom of the list. After all, if there are only two firms in the industry, it is relatively easy to get a Zacks rank of 2.00 (i.e. one with a Zacks Rank of #1 and the other with a #3). Right now, that industry rank would be tied for 6th place among the 255 industries tracked.

The same obviously goes for the bottom of the list as well. If there are 50 firms in the industry, and it ends up at one of the extremes, that means there has to be something pretty significant going on. Thus, I do not always focus on the very highest rated industries, but on the highest rated ones in which there are a large number of firms.

Click here for the Zacks Industry Rank List: http://www.zacks.com/zrank/zrank_inds.php

Read the full analyst report on SLM

Read the full analyst report on METR

Read the full analyst report on HTLF

Read the full analyst report on DFS

Read the full analyst report on EBTX

 

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