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Stocks floated back towards the all-time highs on Monday with earnings season set to kick off. That movement tells you that investors have high expectations this earnings season.
Is that a blessing or a curse?
In general, high expectations are a recipe for disappointment. This is the same stumbling block we have come to the last 3 years as the market rallied into mid-April only to sell off on the earnings reports.
Note that the earnings reports were amply good versus published estimates in each of those quarters. Unfortunately it was the heightened sentiment of investors that did us in until the bull was ready to ride again. The headline beat of Alcoa afterhours, with subsequent dip in price, gives the sense that history is about to repeat itself.
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