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Stocks have great reason to rally. Just consider the parade of news Tuesday that led to another +1% surge higher.
• PMI Mfg Flash Index dropped to 52.0 versus 54.9.
• ICSC Goldman and Redbook show weaker retail sales in US given the abnormally high amount of rain the past week.
• Asian stocks closed lower led by a 2.57% decline in Shanghai, as China's Markit Flash PMI came up just short of expectations.
• In Europe, Germany's Markit Flash PMI sank into contraction mode (i.e. a reading below 50) for the first time this year.
Yes, there is a bit of sarcasm in the above statement as all of those are actually negative items. And yet US stocks continue their march higher.
Because after 4 years of Muddle Through economic growth, investors are finally getting the hang of this. Meaning that GDP is clearly in positive territory (in fact +3.1% is the expected reading for this Friday's report). And even with soft patches here and there it continues to expand at a reasonable enough rate to promote earnings growth.
When you combine that with the 10 year treasury paying a paltry 1.7%, then just the 2% dividend yield on the S&P 500 is reason enough to climb onboard stocks. Long story short, it's best to remain bullish until there are higher odds of a recession on the horizon.
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