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New Breakout Underway?

The 50 day moving average stands at 1619. Stocks flickered above momentarily Thursday, but in the end couldn't handle the heat. This makes six straight sessions below the bar.

Note that on a fundamental basis stocks should be well above given recent economic strength. Also consider this equation:

Less QE = higher bond rates = bond fund losses = stocks more attractive.

Unfortunately far too many investors got this equation wrong the past few weeks. Now they are starting to react properly to the improving economic picture including today's positive Personal Income & Outlays report which maps over to another quarter of solid GDP activity.

The odds are increasing that we will get back above the 50 day soon. Perhaps not on this first effort, but by the 2nd or 3rd attempt. So look for a day in the near future with prices falling back towards 1600 and then buy in for the likely resumption of the long term bull rally.

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Steve Reitmeister (aka Reity...pronounced "Righty")

Executive Vice President

Zacks Investment Research

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