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• DC will find some temporary patch to keep the government running.
• Then they will negotiate some partial solution that keeps kicking the can down the road, like every other debt ridden nation, yet does not really disrupt the current economic growth.
• GDP will stay in the muddle through neighborhood of +2%.
• Both ISMs will average 53-55 (lukewarm).
• Weekly jobless claims come down to 300K average.
• Monthly job adds melt up to 200K per month which allows us to get under 7% unemployment in the Spring of 2014.
• S&P 500 earnings will not come in at $121 per share in 2014 like currently expected. $115 closer to reality which equates to 6-7% growth over 2013.
• Treasury rates float up to 3.25 - 3.5% next year. (Any higher spells trouble for stock valuations).
Add it all up and stocks will rise to around 1900 on S&P in 2014. Then they will run out of steam without more robust earnings growth. If that does not come AND there is no recession in the air, then stocks will go sideways for a long time until a new catalyst emerges to show the way forward (up or down).
(Note that any error in forecast can be blamed on the crystal ball I bought from the Acme Corporation…that is where Wile E. Coyote gets all his advanced products ;-)
Assuming I am right...and I usually do pretty well in this department...then there is plenty of reason to keep a bullish stance in your portfolio.
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