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October might be the scariest month for investors historically. For some reason, this month has seen more than its fair share of stock market crashes: 1929, 1987 and 2008. But so far this October has been a treat for investors as the S&P has risen +4.7%.
One of the reasons we have not seen a crash, or even a pullback, this October is because this earnings season has been pretty good.
As we near the halfway point, a healthy 68.0% of companies in the S&P 500 have delivered positive earnings surprises with a median beat of 2.5%. And earnings growth has been a solid 8.1% so far. The revenue side has not been as pretty with just 49% of companies beating on the top-line, but weaker revenues have been a common theme the last couple of quarters. So there's nothing spooky here.
With solid earnings behind it - and with the Fed continuing to pump $85 billion into the economy every month – the stock market seems well positioned to continue providing investors with treats well past October.
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